Macau Property Opportuni... Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 31/8/2019 02:29

There could be a bargain here at some point...

[apollocreed1] 29/8/2019 16:25

@zangdook - I can't find where I saw this, but I do remember MpO releasing an announcement about 18 months ago they they had decided to cancel their goal of winding up the company due to the renewed strength of the Macau property market.

[woracle] 29/8/2019 08:22

I saw this in the factsheet "Term : Next continuation vote by 30 November 2019"
There you go. Shareholders can give them a good kicking at the AGM in November. If HK situation gets worse, its prices could drop 30% by then, Macau will be affected no doubt and the NAV might be a lot lot less. Is that what the share price is signalling I wonder.

[woracle] 29/8/2019 08:16

Estrada is only 14.4% of assets. But its been on the market over 4 years. Maybe there isnt much of a market for $40m houses but if thats the case, it was poor judgement on the managers part to take the project..and now they are creaming about $1m a year in fees just to watch it. No hurry to sell I guess.

[zangdook] 29/8/2019 07:42

I'd have been happy with 15% off when the NAV was £2.50. I'd accept it now but more than that would be getting a bit close to the bone. I think the problem here is Estrada da Penha - who actually buys houses like that in Macau?

[woracle] 29/8/2019 07:22

HK property is not in a great place clearly,



But I noticed a new development offered a 10% discount in HK a few days ago and all units were snapped up in a day. Whether the HK market has a significant knock on effect on Macau, I dont know. But it shows what a 10% cut can do even now..Macau cannot be too different in that respect.

[woracle] 29/8/2019 07:10

Are you saying something like a 15% discount wont attract huge competitive buying interest in a short space of time ? This vehicle is at a 45% discount remember. Hell, I would go and buy a unit myself at 20% off tomorrow ! lol

[woracle] 29/8/2019 07:06

Have you not noticed the rise of passives and its impact on competition on fees and performance fees. In that respect MPO is years behind the market, althought they made the performance fees less eye watering a few years back.

[zangdook] 29/8/2019 07:04

I'd be wary of imposing a deadline, as that would lead to a firesale auction, with buyers who knew the properties had to be sold.

Edit - just seen your edit.

[woracle] 29/8/2019 07:01

Added my comments above.

[zangdook] 29/8/2019 07:00

Fair enough. I don't think the shareholding structure here allows PIs to have much of an effect though, as the managers own a lot and the institutions probably take them at their word. Unless evidence turns up that MPO are not trying to sell the assets I'm not sure what the effect of voting to liquidate would be, or what advantage would come from replacing them. I don't have any particular reason to believe they're procrastinating unduly or refusing acceptable deals, and unless they're misleading the market they aren't making new investments.

The only other Macau-focused IT I'm aware of did replace its management and brought in new boys who said much the same thing as MPO and actually did it but at the last minute decided to hold on to the cash (with the option of taking it back at a small discount).

How has the world of fund management changed, and how would you suggest making a determination that any given management are actually trying to liquidate?

[woracle] 29/8/2019 06:41

Thats a nice bit of waffle to say we will carry on milking the company and do our best to realise value for you too without any deadlines. Investment trusts can vote to cancel the managers contract with notice or even vote to liquidate assets and close down the company. I dont know the exact mechanism in this trust ( some have votes on winding down and closure every x years ). Whilst the Macau market is in decline, have patience whilst they take their juicy fees and tell you to be patient. .. its not the right time to realise full value of the assets :)

Maybe if enough shareholders are sick of the huge discount and the manager unable to realise value in a timely manner, the board can put it to a vote to liquidate with a timeframe in mind at the next AGM. I bet if all the assets were put up for sale at a 15% discount now, they would liquidate damn quick. Unlock the value. Activist investor is needed here. There is a conflcit of interest that the manager is a major shareholder though in this case.

[zangdook] 28/8/2019 16:09

I don't know what you mean - what vote? The company policy is

"The Company will be managed with the objective of realising the value of all remaining assets in the portfolio..."

[woracle] 28/8/2019 10:30

You should vote for the wind up then. The world of fund management has changed since this was set up. Its now an extortion racket rather than active management.

[zcaprd7] 28/8/2019 01:10

It's Hong Kong, isn't it...

[zangdook] 27/8/2019 23:00

It's company policy to wind it up.

[woracle] 27/8/2019 17:35

They wont want to wind up the company as long as they can continue milking the company for 5%-6% in annual charges :)

[apollocreed1] 27/8/2019 14:48

In the last NAV report, they state that NAV dropped by 17% since the last quarter. What would have caused such a huge drop if property prices in Macau seem to be holding up at the moment. I still think the discount makes these great value, but would be happier if they wind up the company and return the cash to shareholders.

[zangdook] 23/8/2019 10:32

does seem a bit grumpy. all I can do is hold tight and concentrate on the view out of the porthole. and hope they flog a flat or two soonish.

[zcaprd7] 23/8/2019 10:28

Share price not very happy?

[quepassa] 19/8/2019 08:55

Judging by this report in today's MACAU DAILY TIMES, it looks like the residential property market in Macau is going ballistic with Q2 overall sales volume up by a whopping 95% and prices up 7.5%.

hXXps://macaudailytimes.com.mo/property-market-active-as-transaction-volume-doubles.html


Additionally it seems likely that prospective buyers will actively be considering Macau very positively compared to other near-by locations.


All looking pretty good for Macau. Visitor numbers booming. Residential property sales near doubling in Q2, impact of Mainland bridge vastly improving accessibility of Macau.

This is all good news.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 15/7/2019 14:45

BLOW OUT VISITOR FIGURES IN MACAU.

VISITORS NUMBERS ARE 25% HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS YEAR


CASINO SHARES SPARKLE AND UP 20% SINCE JUNE.

DRIVEN BY MAINLAND CHINA VISITORS AND AN EASING IN TENSION BETWEEN CHINA AND USA.

PROBABLY ALSO BY RECENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN HK WHICH WILL FAVOUR MACAU AS A VISITOR DESTINATION.

GROWING IMPACT ON MACAU VISITOR NUMBERS AND ECONOMY SINCE RECENTLY OPENED MAINLAND BRIDGE LINK.

TALK OF DIVERSIFYING MACAU ECONOMY FROM GAMING. TALK OF LAUNCHING A STOCK EXCHANGE IN MACAU.


ALL THESE FACTORS SHOULD IN MY OPINION SUPPORT DEMAND FOR, AND VALUE OF, REAL ESTATE PRICES.

MAKES MPO LOOK GREAT VALUE AS MACAU ECONOMY BEGINS TO SIZZLE.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 24/4/2019 08:23

Bouncing back.

Should go much further .

A discount to NAV which is totally unjustified and making this a top-ten bargain.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[quepassa] 29/3/2019 08:01

China up 4% today.

expect follow-thru