Loopup Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 02/12/2020 09:53

Drop seems very odd. Even if second half is just breakeven, profits in first half would still leave it on a p/e less that 10. Unless I’ve missed something. Feels like there must be a threat of something for such a big fall, but its not obvious from the update.

[letmepass] 02/12/2020 09:40

At 40p possibly

[sev22] 02/12/2020 09:16

Could LoopUp become a takeover target?

[letmepass] 02/12/2020 08:42

When directors don't buy there is a reason.

[phowdo] 02/12/2020 08:41

Zoom off 15% yesterday.
Notable lack of director buying here. Not even a "drew the short straw" nominal purchase from one of the NEDs.

[pratt2] 02/12/2020 08:32

Watch it rise at 9.30

[letmepass] 02/12/2020 08:18

Not enough buyers for movement up. Watch it drop at 11am

[pratt2] 01/12/2020 20:29

Shorts were declared on Friday itself. Only 1.04%. Despite that, this has risen since then.If anything, the buyers have been mopping up all the available shares. The drop was overdone arguably. Look at Tekmar as an example. Similar thing happened, similar sized company, doubled since it dropped earlier this year in just a few weeks.This share has v sound fundamentals too, especially at these prices! Simon T had a very good article on Monday, read it if you get a chance. At current valuations, they only need to convert one reasonable opportunity or see a few % converted in that big pipeline of.opportunities for a re rate. The market is assuming worst case here and has priced that in.Last time this dropped so much back in Sept 2019, directors bought some too so you really wouldn't.want to be shorting this with so many potential plays to the upside that could surprise the market.GLA, all.the best.

[letmepass] 01/12/2020 19:46

Looks like a big seller or someone loans out shares to be shorted. Buys drying up and can see this in the 60s before a big bounce

[hatfullofsky] 01/12/2020 18:38

Cash up to £11.6m means net debt will be around £2.3m and at year end we may have no debt (depending on the marketing aspen)£3.3m cash increase between 30/06 and 30/10Est Rev H220 >£18m H120 £32mRev H2-19 £20m H1-19 £22.4mSays to me the are focusing on the higher margin PS sector. Why compete with Zoom, Teams and Skype when you can compliment them.I bought in after doing my homework, unfortunately I got the peak of the day 88p !!!!!

[the monkster] 01/12/2020 18:15

indeed. worrying to say the least.

[jibba jabber] 01/12/2020 18:01

Not even a dead cat bounce after 2 trading days, short this dog to 40p.

[dgarvey] 01/12/2020 14:06

Flashy websites don't necessarily work in this environment but getting a simple clear message across does. Can't be doing much wrong if debt has more than halved ( according to the half year statement) and cash is up.

[dros1] 01/12/2020 13:52

yes we have got a trust issue here. also look at Loop's website and look at Zoom one. it does not instill confidence in the company especially when the target market is professional.

[shirley83] 01/12/2020 09:45

Just added a few more here. Too good not to

[ruedolf] 30/11/2020 22:58

" Bearing this in mind, the directors note that the pipeline of live opportunities here has a potential contract value of £84m, up from £68m just in late September. They also revealed that the company has been selected by a private banking group to provide their global cloud telephony, subject to a successful three-month proof of concept trial which starts in December. In other words, the pipeline is being converted."

Yeah no wonder the Hedgies are pulling out all the tricks in the book to get cheap shares ... it worked so far .. prising 15m shares from week hands ...68 % growth in three months thats 272% growth on an annual basis ...sounds like they hit the sweet spot in the teleconferencing boom.

[yump] 30/11/2020 20:17

Just looking back to the September statement...

I think they are very cheeky to be quoting stuff like this:

EBITDA growth of 247% to GBP12.2 million at an EBITDA margin of 38.2%
-- Adjusted operating profit growth of 664% to GBP9.2 million
-- EPS growth of 1,164% to 13.9 pence

which looks very impressive, until you see the level of the adjustments.

imo they should be quoting statutory EPS as well, unless the idea is to mislead investors.

If statutory was close to EBITDA then its not so bad, but these figures above are misleading and very flattering. I hadn't quite realised how much they quote EBITDA and quietly don't mention statutory profit and eps.

Which last year was minus 3.6p eps.

[sev22] 30/11/2020 19:05

Here is Simon Thompson's feature on LoopUp, released at 12.00 pm today. Looks like a significant value opportunity to me.

Investors overreact to LoopUp warning.

■ Higher churn and lower revenue in non-professional segments.

■ Pipeline of live cloud telephony opportunities has potential contract value of £84m.

LoopUp (LOOP:84p), a London-based premium remote conference meetings company, downgraded revenue expectations on Friday while I was on leave. The market reaction was savage with the shares halving in value and slicing through my 138p entry point (‘Tap into the remote working boom with LoopUp’, 2 July 2020). Having seen the share price rally 80 per cent to 250p by late summer, passing through my initial 225p target price in the process, the holding is now 40 per cent underwater. Although any downgrade is disappointing, in this case I feel investors have massively overreacted.

Firstly, business remains strong in LoopUp’s key professional service verticals where data privacy and security is paramount (law, accountancy, investment banking, corporate finance, private equity, asset management, insurance, PR and marketing). Minute volumes are 43 per cent higher on average (during September and October) than pre-pandemic levels. This growth driver is still in place.

Secondly, the issue is in non-professional (and non-core) segments which account for 14 per cent of platform revenue. Minute volumes have fallen 10 per cent (compared to pre-pandemic levels), and churn has spiked to 30 per cent, a reflection that non-professional segments face greater competition from rivals Zoom and Microsoft Teams, and clients suffer greater financial distress and have higher levels of employee furloughing. Although this pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon, these are non-core segments and account for a diminishing amount of LoopUp’s overall revenue.

Thirdly, there has been a shift in the call mix towards lower-rated domestic and dial-out minutes away from higher rated international and dial-in minutes, a reflection of the depressed number of international deals being done. This in turn has impacted the average revenue per minute. However, as cross-border activity bounces back from depressed levels during the global economic recovery, then international usage should bounce back, too.

Fourthly, although analysts at Panmure Gordon have downgraded their 2020 revenue estimates from £55.6m to £50m, cash profit will still be more than double from £6.4m in 2019 to £15m to deliver annual pre-tax profit of £8.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of around 14.5p. Moreover, analysts’ new 2021 revenue estimate of £35.5m is based on LoopUp’s current revenue run-rate of £34m and factors in no contribution from the recently launched cloud telephony [integrated with Microsoft Teams] business. This product offering enables clients to make and receive external calls via a third-party network direct routing to companies using Microsoft Teams, alongside its own premium remote meetings capability.

Bearing this in mind, the directors note that the pipeline of live opportunities here has a potential contract value of £84m, up from £68m just in late September. They also revealed that the company has been selected by a private banking group to provide their global cloud telephony, subject to a successful three-month proof of concept trial which starts in December. In other words, the pipeline is being converted.

Fifthly, the company has paid down substantial amounts of debt this year. In fact, analysts at Progressive Equity Research expect net borrowings of £1.9m at the end of December 2020, a sum that is £9.6m lower than 12 months earlier. This means that although their 2021 cash profit estimate of £6.1m is less than half previous estimates of £13.3m (due to the lower revenue run-rate), LoopUp’s enterprise value of £48m now equates to only 8 times downgraded cash profit forecasts, a massive 41 per cent discount to the UK Small-Cap Technology sector average multiple of 13.5 times 2021 enterprise value to cash profit.

The point is that as LoopUp converts its pipeline of potential contracts in the cloud telephony [integrated with Microsoft Teams] business, and cross-border activity bounces back to more normal levels (thus driving up higher margin international call volumes), there is scope for the current revenue run-rate of £34m to ratchet up and drive profits higher. Recovery buy.

[togglebrush] 30/11/2020 15:44

FWIW whilst trading today is much less active than Friday 27th the lot sizes which are most popular are the same (lot size 10,000 to 30,000 )
'
Friday had 37% values are in the range with 608 lots an average deal of £12,985
'
Monday has 41% values are in the range with 189 lots so far average deal of £13,274
'
for comparison Monday 23rd a normal day
Most popular band was 34 lots 3,000 to 10,000 range with 52% with an average deal of £8,184
and 10,000 to 30,000 range with 2 lots with an average deal of £26,100
'
IMHO
we have experienced investors with sizable wallets still working this stock and
fighting weights are getting heavier in the most popular trading range a positive sign,

[jibba jabber] 30/11/2020 13:37

Bull flag on intraday, share price all over it like a pair of Lycra kex

[molatovkid] 30/11/2020 12:52

Need to flush the short termers out and then this will move up when the serious money comes in.