Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 20/7/2015 08:24

friday results will give a clearer picture, good or bad.

[dealy] 17/7/2015 22:58

absolutely no mention in UBS' report last week about the fact that Lonmin's costs are in Rand - a currency which is weakening rapidly. So what's important for profitability is the platinum price in Rand.

[karmastuartra] 17/7/2015 16:35

Slow climb to £1.20 plus 6-9 months timespan.

[karmastuartra] 17/7/2015 16:14

Look to holding long term,forget day trading.

[lazyhisnibs] 17/7/2015 15:16

It would have been counter-trend if $1005 or 1000 had held for long.

It's now between here and there with there being $800 according to more than one commentator a couple of months back.

[careful] 17/7/2015 14:27

plat price dropped below $1000/oz today.

[karmastuartra] 17/7/2015 09:17

Strong finish today

[karmastuartra] 17/7/2015 08:07

Up up and away!

[lazyhisnibs] 16/7/2015 14:53

This post may be of interest to those who aren't just here temporarily to pump and dump. It is Eskom focused which although not having a direct impact on the share price is vital for the viability of any business in SA.

Load shedding kicked back in because the monopolistic power supplier appeared taken by surprise by colder weather and ran low on diesel.

Weirder still:

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/eskom-s-rotek-riddle-1.1885869#.Vae0wHkVjIU

[karmastuartra] 16/7/2015 10:27

Up,up and away,in my beautiful platinum balloon !

[karmastuartra] 16/7/2015 08:07

Another blue day,gla.

[karmastuartra] 16/7/2015 01:05

Like I said shorters,forget it!

[lazyhisnibs] 15/7/2015 20:07

In the media:

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/industrials/2015/07/15/load-shedding-is-squeezing-the-life-out-of-sas-factories

OK, metals/manufacturing isn't mining but there are some revealing comments in the above. Quite different to what sounded like an improving working relationship with Eskom according to management here in May.

Also, going back a couple of months for consumers most of the electricity rationing has been in the evening and/or in to the night which I would have thought would have been a less problematic time for a fair proportion of big industry. Not without lost production, just less - perhaps impacting maintenance teams more than production crews?

On the other hand it would make sense if industry gets targeted at their peak times rather than at peak times for consumers. That would be joined-up thinking. Either way the impact will surface mostly in the quarterly reporting seasons.

[karmastuartra] 15/7/2015 19:05

Sorry for those stopped out in the seventies,but if your stock is paid up ,hang on in there.
T3,t5,t10 etc,don't bother,this will take longer to bounce back.shorters have missed it!

[lazyhisnibs] 15/7/2015 14:23

I hope it's finally going to form a range other than a 20 to 30 degree descent with a lower everything type of affair with the occasional impressive bounce.

Based on the May presentation the production report shouldn't be a game changer either for the better or for the worse.

If management can successfully cull the workforce by about 10% (on a voluntary basis) and they stick to the plan not to spend much on K4 then, on reflection; they can probably avoid dilution or more debt well in to next year. Whether that is wise or not must depend on where platinum helps to take the share price.

------------------------IMF & the Greek Tragedy-------------------



Why now rather than a months ago.


---------------$ and Plat---------------

[dealy] 15/7/2015 10:04

Goldmans upgraded to neutral from sell today. Don't have any more info.

[karmastuartra] 15/7/2015 08:29

As I thought,all part of the game,back up we go.

[ch1ck] 15/7/2015 02:01

As most of you will know Lonmin is the worlds largest miner of PGM's. These rare and valuable metals are essential in many modern systems such as catalytic converters.For those who dont know much about them i have posted a brief note: The platinum group metals (PGMs) are six transitional metal elements that are chemically, physically and anatomically similar. PGMs includeIridium (Ir)Osmium (Os)Palladium (Pd)Platinum (Pt)Rhodium (Rh)Ruthenium (Ru)Characteristics:The PGMs are the densest known metal elements. Exceptionally rare, the six metals naturally occur in the same ore bodies. They are highly durable and, due to their high value, often recycled, giving them long life cycles.

[karmastuartra] 14/7/2015 22:18

Just a case of buying and tucking away,can see a 50 % return on my investment with a 6-9 month
Window.

[lazyhisnibs] 14/7/2015 17:32

Production Report



2015

29 January 2015 AGM and Q1 Production Report
11 May 2015 Interim Results including Q2 Production Report
24 July 2015 Q3 Production Report
To be confirmed Final Results including Q4 Production Report

Could really do with more depth in terms of salient information from management at a time like this. It's like pulling teeth with most of them particularly the small caps which this has become. However, I'm not surprised they didn't issue a statement regarding knowing of no reason for the fall in the share price. The pace in the absence of any official announcements yet may have surprised them a fair bit though.

[dealy] 14/7/2015 15:08

The worst is over it seems. buying coming in now.

[lazyhisnibs] 14/7/2015 14:02

Pleasure dealy and I hadn't twigged the similar market caps before that article. Apologies but the enterprise value type stuff is something I would ask careful and you although I have been digging around in that fundie mosquagmire this week.

I try to watch the video download of the stock watch program on that TV site I keep mentioning most evenings and I think RB Plat do have debt. Commentators have praised them as it's made profits and went it's own way with labour relations so dodged the five month strike. (This all from memory so best DYOR if relevant.)

If Lonmin are to stick to their current business model it sounds like more equity or debt will be taken on (in due course) which of course is crazy with the persistently falling price of platinum. If there' no hint of such a corporate action in their next report then a temporary move to 85p for a pound?

On the subject of their next report the following isn't exactly helpful:



Did someone mention July 16rh as in the day after tomorrow?

[dealy] 14/7/2015 13:23

Or Central African Mining (down to 2p at the end of 2008 and bought 5 months later by ENRC for 20p).