Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 14/7/2015 13:23

Never forget Corus back in 2002. Market cap fell to £200m. 3 years later bought for 4 billion pounds.

[dealy] 14/7/2015 13:22

Thanks Lazy. Amazing that it has the same market cap as a peer with one quarter of its production. Does RBPlat have any debt so that we can compare the enterprise values of the two companies?

[lazyhisnibs] 14/7/2015 12:35

Article below covers current affairs of the three big miners on the belt along with basic charts. (The percentages changes on the charts are just for yesterday.)

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2015/07/14/amplats-share-price-up-on-mid-year-gains

Extracts:

Lonmin, however, continued free falling, reaching fresh record lows as investors fretted about the effect of persistent low platinum prices on Lonmin.

Lonmin fell 11% on Monday to R14.16, giving it a market capitalisation of R8.3bn and bringing its year-to-date decline to 56%. Its market capitalisation is similar to that of Royal Bafokeng Platinum (RBPlat), a much smaller producer of 190,000oz of platinum a year versus Lonmin’s 750,000oz a year.

Another analyst, who declined to be named because of company policy issues, said Lonmin was likely to need a large injection of capital and could again ask shareholders to support it.

Despite Amplats’ enormous gains in interim earnings, analysts said these were off an artificially low base caused by a five-month strike at its Rustenburg mine last year.

RBPlat gave a much gloomier interim results forecast, citing a lower revenue price for the metals RBPlat produced, a once-off R110m tax charge, lower production because of safety stoppages and intermittent production at its concentrator because of load shedding and unscheduled maintenance for repairs.


---Another article (a single facility Amplats strike continues)---

Re Amplats - the world's largest platinum miner.

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/strike-continues-at-twickenham-1.1885043

[dealy] 14/7/2015 10:39

This overhang related to the Glencore distribution is causing this depression. Funds that hold Glencore (30 billion market cap) aren't necessarily allowed to hold a small cap like Lonmin. Tin hats on until this passes imo.

[wageslave] 14/7/2015 09:14

Who is dumping the 20k lots which is keeping the price down?

[lazyhisnibs] 13/7/2015 21:36

- From MAY this year.



DEBT - A moving target



"The closing net debt of $282m, whilst a significant increase in the opening net debt position of $29m reported at the start of the year was partly due to the impact of the stock lock up and well within our debt facilities. The effect of the loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation was a negative $6m. In total working capital increased by $154m, largely as a result of the stock lock up." and "We estimate that net debt at 31 March 2015 would have been around $170m lower had the stock lock up not occurred during the half year period." and "Net debt at 31 March of $282m was well within our debt facilities of $563m." and "We are confident of managing our working capital requirements through cost conservation measures and capital discipline to keep borrowings and debt covenants well within the limits of our committed debt facilities."

OTHER

K4: "In terms of the guidance going forward we've deferred K4 out of the window, the planning window of two years..." It doesn't seen to have been dropped due to the 10% voluntary redundancies but it's not full steam ahead either.

Eskom: The talk in terms of a manageable situation helped to a some degree by shallowness - i.e. of shafts.

[dealy] 13/7/2015 19:35

Company now worth less than the equity that was raised in 2012 (400m times 140p).

couldn't make it up...

[lazyhisnibs] 13/7/2015 19:14

Four month old article on capital raising speculation. Perhaps to some extent this is mitigated by management's plans to reduce the workforce although some of that may have been included below.

[karmastuartra] 13/7/2015 18:48

£20 to 73p in five years,no debt,billions in asset,producing and exploration,couldn't make it up!

[karmastuartra] 13/7/2015 18:46

AQP up 20%,shows how fixed trading has been with lmi.
You have to laugh though,if you own your shares,sit back,relax and enjoy the ride.

[lazyhisnibs] 13/7/2015 18:42

In the SA media today:

Royal Bafokeng Platinum down a bit more than 5% on what sounds like a profit warning via a trading update. The profits had been doing relatively well.

The much larger Anglo Plats up just over 1% on earnings

[dealy] 13/7/2015 13:57

Company is in a quiet period due to upcoming results so that probably explains why they can't comment on the share price.

[karmastuartra] 13/7/2015 12:43

Reverse afternoon

[karmastuartra] 13/7/2015 12:42

Im all in in to win

[ch1ck] 13/7/2015 12:27

I'm buying in to these for the platinum and gold reserves it mines and holds.Any recovery in the platinum price would sent the share price to 170p or more for the stock.

[mj19] 13/7/2015 12:19

Might be rights issue or have its mining license suspended Let's see who bloody knows

[ch1ck] 13/7/2015 12:18

Buying when there is blood on the floor.Massive up side from here I'm putting my money on it.If the miners ran a cartel like Opec they could fix production rates to hold the commodity price.Of cause that would be illegal wouldn't it?

[mj19] 13/7/2015 12:16

Rumour is that there is rights issue hence the fall they might need money to survivehttp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2015/07/13/cash-strapped-lonmin-plunges-as-peers-rally

[mj19] 13/7/2015 12:13

Would anyone care to take Lmi over please

[audigger] 13/7/2015 12:10

Well aren't I really pleased I bought in two weeks ago, NOT!

[bobsidian] 13/7/2015 12:01

Cataclysmic.

But given the recent share price history - and subject to any imminent and stock specific negative newsflow - such plunges seem to be followed by fast and furious share price reactions back to the long term downtrend.

Anyone brave enough to catch this falling knife ?

[karmastuartra] 13/7/2015 11:02

Should read something like,knows of no reason for recent decline in share price?