Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 24/7/2015 07:57

232,000 OZ sold at say av $1050 = $244,000 sales for Q.
Two innefficient shafts to be closed.
This is a battle for survival.

[bigsi2] 24/7/2015 07:53

Reads like an AFR RNS :(

[careful] 24/7/2015 07:43

because of the past labour disasters they seem unable to take the drastic measures necessary to survive.
production numbers ok but loss making at current prices.
but is it already in the recent price collapse, or is it going under?

[buywell3] 24/7/2015 07:38

Terrible chart

Terrible news

Lower commodity prices to continue it seems


50p anyone ?

[dealy] 24/7/2015 07:36

already down from 140p. anything worse here than expected?

[tsmith2] 24/7/2015 07:33

Capital raising ahead...say as much..prob big mark down today

[dealy] 24/7/2015 07:27

Well, lots of news here. If the industry takes a similar approach prices will recover. I am hoping that the market will view this positively.

[salpara111] 23/7/2015 12:46

Quite a big piece on Platinum and the various miners in the FT today, all rather depressing and again questioning Lonmins' cash position.

[lazyhisnibs] 23/7/2015 09:42

careful,

You asked about the Public Investment Corp.

The first ten minutes or so of the following comprise a discussion around their role:

hxxp://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/editingallowed/2015/07/22/editing-allowed-part-1

I only half listened but there is obviously discomfort in some quarters but it doesn't sound like that extends to holdings in company's like Lonmin. Err, except the pensioners might not be too impressed!

[lazyhisnibs] 22/7/2015 11:48

Protesters bring a ramping up SA platinum mine to a standstill.

hxxp://www.pressreader.com/south-africa/pretoria-news/20150722/282127815168600/TextView

Copy paste the link to your browser if curious.

PS: someone here tipped Jubilee Plat. Good call on a three month view.

[lazyhisnibs] 21/7/2015 21:10

Not very popular this Motely bunch but it's an interesting quick read.



Careful, OK thanks - I should try that if ever reckless enough to be poised to push the buy button again.

[careful] 21/7/2015 16:32

I googled the demand/recycle/supply numbers.
Johnson Matthey source.

[dealy] 21/7/2015 16:19

Worm - excellent post.

I think that even the numpties running South Africa understand that if you strangle the golden goose you don't get any eggs, never mind golden ones.

[lazyhisnibs] 21/7/2015 16:04

careful,

"who are the 'Public Investment Corporation' who now own 10% of LMI?"

If you Google it you'll quickly know more about it than anyone here. There was an article on the acting CEO of Eskom. Before being at another 'sort of' Government organisation he was at that organisation. I think the PIC, for want of a better world or phrase, 'looks after' many (all, anything else?) Government pensions. I think the number of public servants has reportedly grown by a million over the past half decade or so. Consequently they must be a big player.

They were also in the news over the Vodacom as they bought a fair old percentage at a discount. Since they have hedged on about 40% of their stake. Best DYOR if who are the major share holders might influence your decision making.

By the way do you have a link for the platinum demand/supply figures you posted. If it was in an article one of us here posted then I missed those stats.

Below is a vid link of Chris G or Anglo Plats doing his best to make the current situation sound not too dire. He spoke strategy briefly and to cut a long story short they still don't want their platinum assets to be part of it for long but have deferred a decision on whether to IPO then or not. Debt and profitability were also mentioned in passing. The beginning of the Stock Picks show had a couple of analysts discussing gold and platinum.

hxxp://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/newsleader/2015/07/20/amplats-still-mulling-union-ipo

[worm_c] 21/7/2015 15:13

Lots of variables involved with Lonmin from China to local political situation; workforce to global PGM demand, strength of the dollar to global interest rates. If you look at the wide variance in the broker forecasts then you know that nobody can really predict the long term outlook.

Add to that the lack of information coming from the company directly and you can understand why people are nervous and there are these wild swings (well drops) in share price.

Lots of people are prepared to take a loss and put their money somewhere more predictable. There is a possibility, given a perfect storm of negative events that Lonmin could implode - i.e. loss of mining license, more strikes, further collapse of platinum prices and a rights issue and that's what people are scared of.

If that is avoided, then in my opinion, the upside is significant.

I would suspect that there will be no significant news on Friday. If we see a recovery in platinum back over $1000 and some institutional buying then I'd take that a strong buying signal.

[careful] 21/7/2015 12:01

there must be some big share moving announcement on Friday with the results.
people on the inside should be buying if all is well,low PMG prices not helping.
friday will be interesting.

volumes very low.

[careful] 21/7/2015 08:42

who are the 'Public Investment Corporation' who now own 10% of LMI?

[karmastuartra] 21/7/2015 08:27

Up and down like a fiddlers elbow,good entry point though.

[salpara111] 20/7/2015 13:23

The main reason I didn't invest in any of the platinum players was that the pop did not rise when most of the mines were closed from strikes for about 5 months last year.
As I understand it there is a critical element to the supply/demand equation that you are not mentioning in your post which is "Above ground stocks" apparently the reason pop didn't rise during the strike last year was due to drawdowns on this above ground stock.
The problem is that no one seems to have a good handle on how large this stock is.

[careful] 20/7/2015 12:38

Just like for everything else ETF's distort the market.

Total world demand for 2015 8305,000 oz
less recycling 2213,000 oz
net demand 6092,000 oz
supply 5807,000 oz.
shortfall in supply 285,000 oz.

There is something very strange about the current price mechanism, no doubt due to the huge amounts of closing long EFT's, opening short ETF's and momentum HF traders.

[lazyhisnibs] 20/7/2015 11:56

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/amplats-faces-long-goodbye-with-mines-1.1887480

The above on Amplats with some read across.

Another article "Platinum falls below $1000 an ounce" partly argued that faith in the long term market for platinum had faltered but that bit might have been poetic licence on behalf of the journalist. Industrial use is weak and despite some good car sales stats apparently the same cannot be said for diesel cars. Further, use of the metal in jewellery has been down this year or so the article reported.

The article referred to above can probably still be found at www.busrep.co.za with some patience although there are other cut down versions on the web.

[careful] 20/7/2015 11:22

the low platinum price must be a serious problem for a marginal producer such as Lonmin.

but also the market sharks and traders drive the price of the commodity down as well as the share price.
We are all beginning to imagine the worst with regards to survivability.
A hostile political environment, a low platinum price and a company now run for the benefits of the workers after the tragedy of 3 years ago.

Against that, one day this will be a valuable asset again as platinum and its other products have a consistent demand, but it takes nerves to hold in there.

[careful] 20/7/2015 11:01

fools rush in.
he who dares wins.
when the going gets tough.

[dealy] 20/7/2015 10:25

This is turning into a horror show. Resource sector is in free fall. I didn't realise we had a plague that reduced the population by 20%.

[careful] 20/7/2015 10:11

plat price well below $1000 today.