Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[blippy2] 05/5/2015 15:30

Lonmin shares will be given to Glencore holders. There won't be any shares "not taken up". According to my calcs, Glencore owns around 140m shares of Lonmin, whilst it itself has 13078m. That means for every 93 shares of Glencore, shareholders can expect 1 share in Lonmin (unless anyone wants to correct my calcs).

I don't think it's a deliberate ploy on Glen's part, it's just the way the numbers work out. It doesn't really help the large holders to acquire Lonmin shares cheaply, as they could be bought on the open market anyway if that's what people wanted to do.

[bouleversee] 05/5/2015 14:51

Can't help thinking this is a deliberate ploy for large holders of Glen to acquire Lonmin shares v. cheaply as smaller holders will take the cash to avoid small holdings. What happens to the shares not taken up?

[careful] 05/5/2015 14:21

The share register is getting simpler, share price is improving.
Good gains of late, up 5% today.

[lazyhisnibs] 29/4/2015 14:34

bouleversee, just five is a bit of a bummer. If they pay you out let's hope there are no charges which includes your broker.

careful, isn't it more about Glen's board not getting any offers they deemed acceptable for their share of Lonmin and they then simply decided to pass them on to their shareholders who could then each decide if the current price for Lonmin was acceptable to them or not. I suspect the IIs will mostly take their allocation and then off-load them the next time the price moves up, say, 10% over a week. With PIs I guess it is more a case of if they were ever interested in holding a leveraged instrument, as it were, on platinum. If not they'll mostly take the cash.

[careful] 29/4/2015 14:18

a big chunk of lmi being sold over the next few weeks.
they have 'arranged' a lower price it seems.
what a racket.

[bouleversee] 29/4/2015 11:49

Unfortunately, my Lonmin shares (on which I am losing a huge percentage) are in a different ISA from my Glencore ones so I can't see any point in taking 5 LMI shares. Will wait to see the small print, however. Haven't heard a thing from Interactive Investor about this distribution/choice.

[deans] 29/4/2015 06:08

I have taken the LMI shares allotted from my GLEN holding only 3 though.

[lazyhisnibs] 28/4/2015 21:17

Sure and as you or someone else said the results will de-mist things a bit. I'm wondering how they'll handle production guidance though.

An analyst saying that European car data helped today with one of the other big SA platinum miners being up as much as 13% at one point. It closed up between 7 and 8% so there would have been short covering too.

Interesting to hear your choice on the Glen/LMI manoeuvre.

[careful] 28/4/2015 15:07

Things will look clearer after this glen share overhang clears.
not long to wait.
made my election as a glen shareholder for shares in lmi instead of cash.
a small amount,about 1 lmi per 93 glen, but a big influence on lmi.

[lazyhisnibs] 28/4/2015 14:56

The latest stand in appointment at Eskom has a reputation for getting this done. He's contemplating more load shedding in the next year but then the process ending at the end of that time instead of dragging on for two or even three years.

In the next few months more power may be available to the grid if the one of two nuclear reactors being worked on comes back in to service to schedule in May.

Nice rebound for long suffering Lonmin holders even if only part way. I'm not sure how to read the Glen de-risk after all the downs and ups.

Could iron ore and other metals either have bottomed out or be damn close to it. As for some of the miners it appears that only a market correction (either equity indices or metals indices) would re-test the lows dredged when copper fell 6% one morning and Glen 10% on the same day some months back. Other shares like Anto have come back from that desperation point well too.

[lazyhisnibs] 23/4/2015 20:55

South African Analysts discussing, inter alia, Lonmin.

Parts 1 and 2. Lonmin was covered in part 1 soon after the vid started.

hxxp://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/stockwatch/2015/04/23/stock-watch-part-1

hxxp://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/stockwatch/2015/04/23/stock-watch-part-2

[lazyhisnibs] 23/4/2015 20:10

An example of how load shedding effects large industrials.

Finally I find something helpful for heavy weights.

hxxp://www.4-traders.com/HULAMIN-LIMITED-1413370/news/Hulamin--Remarks-by-the-Chairman-at-the-Annual-General-Meeting-of-Hulamin-shareholders-ndash-23-A-20246955/

When load curtailment is enforced, Eskom currently provides
Hulamin with an instruction to curtail its average power demand to
between 90% (stage 1) or 80% (stage 2) of its baseline demand.
Eskom is unable to provide advance notice of load curtailment and
the frequency of curtailments has increased significantly in the
last thirty days.

It goes on to say they will install generation sets but fuelling them is really expensive.

[lazyhisnibs] 23/4/2015 18:03

Lots of miners up this afternoon.

Iron ore was at $54 somewhere in the world according to an article in The Australian I think it was. A week ago sub 50 was the talk of the town.



Found The Australian article, see below:

[careful] 23/4/2015 16:43

closed 8.7% up today.
that is quite a pop.
any particular reason?

[lazyhisnibs] 22/4/2015 16:36

hxxp://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/124736-eskom-load-shedding-risk-22-april.html

[lazyhisnibs] 22/4/2015 13:28

Guidance could be more interesting still.

[careful] 22/4/2015 13:13

we shall see the production figures and results in a couple of weeks.
it will be good to get a clearer picture.

[lazyhisnibs] 22/4/2015 13:10

Yet another SA minister comments this time saying the violence against foreigners may adversely impact on arrangements the country has with others in the region regarding the supply of electricity. Mozambique's exports of power to SA are critical and there are currently ongoing negotiations with the DRC.

There's press coverage.

SA also supplies power to countries in the region but by the sounds of it with Mozambique at least SA gets more power than they send. The border was closed at one point as SA trucks were getting pelted with stones. A large SA company with major facilities in Moz flew back workers to SA. An Irish miner in Moz flew workers back to SA too. Hundreds of workers not tens. Presumably their safety could not be guaranteed.

[jeffcranbounre] 21/4/2015 15:02

I chat about Vedanta on today's ADVFN podcast with technical analyst Nicola Duke.

To listen click here>

[lazyhisnibs] 20/4/2015 11:49

There's been plenty of news especially on the country front but whether a move like that was justified is a case of time will tell. 107p ish seems OTT now but it may or may not in three months time.

Shorting manoeuvres are generally tactical in nature whereas the platinum trend is at least medium term and SA challenges are long term. Probably very long term. Anyway, you are probably right about it being a short covering rally but one platinum could end or extend.

On a country tack when I read stuff like that at the following link I can understand why large miners need sophisticated HR departments. It also reinforces my belief that waiting for clarity on the second amendment (or whatever the correct terminology is) of the petroleum and mineral resources development act would be wise. That could even help the share price recover if the reality is not as bad as expectations (from an investors perspective that is). In this regard I notice one of SA's northern neighbours backtracked on some hefty royalty ramp ups when foreign miners threated to plan for possible disinvestment. There was also a change in Government there.

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/news/chamber-of-mines-view-on-ownership-needs-broad-discussion-1.1847364#.VTTU35WJjIU

Today may or may not be the end of a week of back-to-back stage 3 load shedding. It is argued that it is stage 3 that does the real economic damage.

-------------------
The load shedding continues. Logic suggests winter will be a lot worse.

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/businesstimes/2015/04/19/the-last-word-eskom-fluffs-its-lines-as-bosses-lose-the-plot

[dealy] 16/4/2015 10:11

The spike is just a reversal of the totally unjustified plumment that occured over the previous few weeks. On no news the shares fell from 160p to 107p. Conveniently the short interest went up from 4% to 8% during this period. Rise is now probably due to those shorts covering.

This type of plumment drop has happened to so many companies I follow in London market. Tullow, Petrofac etc.

It's all hedge fund driven.

[lazyhisnibs] 14/4/2015 21:03

Articles on the Eskom debacle strewn around the SA press today particularly the Business Day newspaper which is also online. Also interviews at the TV channel with the same name.

The Government borrowed money to plug in some renewable energy sources to the grid which is a work in progress but 95% of feed to the grid is from Eskom. There doesn't yet appear to be the political will to plug in private sources of power although I think a few tree hugger types have managed it.

An article explained that SA businesses (not the micro ones though) are buying generators as are wealthy consumers. The middle class tend to put up with the inconvenience even if a small proportion get fed up in which case they tend to buy inverters. In winter that must surely become more common.

The World Bank had a go about Eskom today along the lines of the problem shouldn't be sugar coated as it's severe.

The IMF lowered their SA growth target mainly because of power problems. It's been a problem on and off for ten years.

Anyway conceivably the electrical power thing could help share holders in the medium term if it constricts platinum supply while Europe's pace of recovery picks up. The suppliers/miners would have to moderate their production guidance first though so some more pain before the gain perhaps.

I've not been online today till now. What triggered the spike, traders and their TA?



Articles

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2015/04/14/load-shedding-moves-to-stage-3-says-eskom

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/2015/04/14/eskom-lies-will-continue-over-ideology

PS: Eskom caved in to get the Medupi workers back to work. For residents in SA that is probably just as well!

[careful] 14/4/2015 15:47

buying a stand alone 20mw gas generator would not cost too much.
they could sell the surplus electricity they do not need.
an interesting business diversification for them.

problem solved, if they order now it could be commissioned quickly.
many have done this in the past.
simple.

[lazyhisnibs] 13/4/2015 16:51

"those electricity problems shouldn't be insurmountable."

Of course not but on what time frame.

A few months ago Eskom said summer demand was the problem which made little sense as more people turn on heaters in winter than they do air conditioners in summer. Most consumers cannot afford domestic air con systems or even individual units.

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/sa-s-power-grid-to-feel-the-chill-1.1844329#.VSvj-pWJjIU

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/markets/south-africa/blackouts-may-risk-a-manufacturing-recession-1.1843954

Extract from the above article: "Eskom is rationing electricity supply because its ageing plants cannot meet demand. Dawie Roodt, chief economist of Efficient Group in Pretoria, estimates the electricity crunch since 2007 has cost the economy more than R300 billion in lost output."

From watching quite a few vids on the Business Day TV site I get the impression that big industry has been hit a lot harder than consumers.

[careful] 10/4/2015 16:02

results in about 4 weeks.
decent production figures will reassure this bombed out share.
fall well overdone.

£2.25bn assets against market cap of 750m.