London Capital Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 10/8/2017 20:33

A bit of communication to long suffering holders wouldn't go amiss. Then again if they are about to take the minority interest away from us for some ridiculous price, why bother? Don't hold much hope and certainly don't trust management here.

[aleman] 10/8/2017 18:31

VIX now 14.49 after earlier hitting 15.49. The headlines will say welcome back volatility. In practice, it is probably more down to a short squeeze. Nonetheless, volatility has clearly been increasing for a few weeks for anyone who has been watching for it. Let's hope it is good for business.

[aleman] 10/8/2017 14:49

VIX now 13.20 from 11.11 yesterday. +20%

[aleman] 10/8/2017 14:24

VIX at 12.64 is now highest since mid-May. The 5-year average is about 15 so a near 4 point rise in two weeks ago is big. It's up 15% today. Are financial markets starting to throw a wobbly or is it just a reaction to record shorting of the VIX that means it is now distorted as an indicator?

[domple] 10/8/2017 14:09

no but LCG is.

[aleman] 10/8/2017 13:56

Is VIX picking up rising volatility?

[aleman] 10/8/2017 13:54

Rising revenues and falling costs are a good combination. A reduced cash burn from last year might see LCG okay for a couple of years with the cash they have. That just then just leaves us asking when volatility returns. There are already signs it is here. The UK is falling into recession if today's manufacturing, construction and trade news is anything to go - and things seem to have deteriorated further since two months ago. Brexit dithering and Trump are adding to problems. If bad economic news and bad politics continue to increase, profitability could arrive quite quickly. Downside seems to be in the price, mostly. I think the upside potential is not being fully represented.

[dusseldorf] 10/8/2017 12:51

We've not much to go on Aleman, as no trading update, but one can assume only that forward looking statements that were written in FY16 at end of June still hold true:

"The full benefits of the cost savings associated with the restructuring exercise in 2016 are expected to materialise in the next financial year. "

"We are confident the Group is now far better placed to derive a steady revenue stream during weak trading conditions and be in a position to take full advantage when conditions are favourable"

"LCG, as one of the leading providers in the industry with an established history of over 20 years and with a loyal client base, is well placed to continue its growth trajectory in this changing environment."

"Both client acquisition and client volumes are continuing to improve in 2017, with the first two months of the year showing newly funded accounts up 30% on the same period in 2016 and client trading volumes up 14% over the same period."

"At the same time, the Company has also taken advantage of these resources and talent pool by re-locating many of its processing and operational functions to Cyprus which will additionally reduce costs for the Group. The full benefits of these cost saving initiatives are expected to be seen in 2017. "

"The Group looks forward to benefiting from the enhanced product offerings which will give the Company the opportunity to promote the brand, develop broader and more innovative products and service offerings, and attract a more diversified client base, both within the UK market and internationally. "

I'm knee deep in LCG as a long term hedge on markets becoming more erratic and ultimately would like to see a £50mcap company within 2.5-3yrs. exactly how that is achieved be it improved trading alone or in combination with additional equity I'm not sure.

[aleman] 10/8/2017 12:11

12.46 now.

[aleman] 10/8/2017 10:38

I thought volatility looked to be increasing. VIX has started to show it - now 12.25 from under 9 two weeks ago. It fortuitously coincides with LCP's current ad campaign. Lots of bad economic news about today could drive it higher.

[dusseldorf] 03/8/2017 13:51

domple - were they your big boots at 2.375? if so, well timed

[domple] 03/8/2017 13:44

Well, im in a few more to average down.

[dusseldorf] 03/8/2017 13:02

Online quotes:
Sell 375k@2.06 buy 1k@2.25

Seriously...max online buy is throttled to £30 (via hargreaves at least).

[dusseldorf] 03/8/2017 11:26

No shortage of 'thin margin' sellers, but the Ask volume is tight. Looking a bit more chirpy than a few days ago.

2.75p is the 200 day SMA and may prove problematic, however, should it break through back to high 3's, it may be time to believe happy days are here again.

[ddubzy] 02/8/2017 12:17

Feel for those that have held through this fall, but for new investors surely there must be/could be some real good gains to be made here. Clearly company in a big marketing drive and market volatility will return!

[dusseldorf] 02/8/2017 11:20

Would be even more impressive to see it go the other way :)

I'm still here waiting for some signs of further business recovery - assumption is all is on track (given lack of trading update to state otherwise or confirm exceeding expectations)

[domple] 20/7/2017 10:18

25p down to 1.5p in 2 years is pretty impressive stuff!!

[aleman] 18/7/2017 13:04

Largest rise in CMBS delinquencies since 2009 as they jump from 3.50% in May to 3.72% in June.



No volatility?

[backtogo] 18/7/2017 13:02

ploppety plop down it drops

[aleman] 18/7/2017 11:45

I just skimmed the IGG report and it looks like worries about regulation have been overblown and the market is still growing, even with low levels of volatility by recent standards.

[dusseldorf] 18/7/2017 08:40

I see IGG results out (up to end May 2017), strong improvements across the board - I hope some of that translates to LCG client activity.

IGG also having to increase overheads (up 14%) so it will be a real achievement if LCG can reduce them (reported results H1 2017 in Sept) whilst improving revenue and ebitda.

Something I find quite incredible is highlighted in bold below (from IG FY)

A potentially significant mitigating factor to the impact of any regulatory restrictions on retail clients, would be qualifying clients electing to take on a professional status in order to continue to trade as before. To qualify, a client must pass two of the three tests defined under MiFID - sufficient trading experience, a substantial investment portfolio, relevant occupational experience. As has always been the case, the Company's revenue is relatively concentrated towards the most active end of the client base. In the last year, 80% of the Group's revenue (excluding the US) was generated by less than 9% of clients. The vast majority of IG's top 9% of clients have a recent trading history which would suggest they should pass the sufficient trading experience test. In addition, a recent independent survey found that approximately 15% of IG's clients have a financial instrument portfolio of a sufficient size to pass the second test. These statistics underline the journey the Group has been on for a number of years to focus on serving the upper end of the OTC leveraged trading market. The Company cannot be sure of the degree of overlap between these groups of clients, and it is not possible to determine how many eligible clients would choose to be classified as professional.

~£250m (guesstimate) of IG's revenue comes from 9% of their client base(!)

They are also following LCG's exploration outside the EU:

The Group is planning for the UK's exit from the EU, and good progress is being made in securing regulatory approval for a subsidiary based in the EU. The Group is also at the early stages of exploring further opportunities outside the EU.

[aleman] 12/7/2017 17:03

Volatility increasing elsewhere?