Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 11/2/2019 06:18

'I do not see how there are things we can get the EU to agree in April and May that we cannot get them to agree in February and March against the pressure of the deadline of our departure. The public want government and Parliament to just get on with it. Tha5 is also the best negotiating strategy.I still want a managed WTO exit with a UK offer of a free trade agreement which could avoid tariffs and other new barriers to our EU trade.'

[xxxxxy] 11/2/2019 06:17

Brexit end game?

By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: FEBRUARY 11, 2019

As we listen to the ticking clock we are assured by the PM we will leave on 29 March this year. The question remains how.

It sounds from the government line and the line of Mrs May’s helpers that they want to get Parliament to reconsider the Withdrawal Agreement which Remainers and Leavers united to defeat. They seem to think they can pose Remain MPs with the choice of no deal versus the Agreement where they might prefer the Agreement, whilst saying to Leave MPs it is Withdrawal Aagreement versus No Brexit. The problem with this approach, as tried last time, is it is contradictory. The threat of No Deal issued to Remain supporters is exactly what many Leave voters now want.

It is not credible to say to Leave MPs Brexit will be cancelled if the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected again. The government would have to propose rescinding the Article 50 letter and embark on the repeal of the EU Withdrawal Act. Many MPs would realise this would destroy the trust of electors. It would lead to the loss of many seats as Labour and Consevative MPs who had won in 2017 on a clear promise to implement Brexit faced retribution from angry voters at the following election. It is difficult to see how Mrs May’s leadership would survive any such attempted U turn on such an important issue, and questionable whether DUP support for the government could last either.There is every reason for MPs to stay loyal to the Conservative or Labour Manifesto and refuse to repeal the legislation.

To a Leave MP the Withdrawal Agreement was easy to vote against because it is not leaving. It is a further 21 to 45 months in the EU, accepting their new laws without any say on them, under their court, and paying large unspecified sums to their budget.With the backstop it might keep us in a customs union permanently. The Conservative Manifesto very clearly promised we would leave the EU, single market and Customs Union. The Labour Manifesto promised to leave the EU and set out a detailed trade policy that would be incompatible with Customs Union membership.

Mrs May might late in the day get some legal text offering reassurances about the backstop. It is unlikely to be a full rewrite of the Agreement taking the backstop out in the way Parliament requested through the Brady amendment. This should not be enough to lead to the successful passing of a motion in favour of the Agreement after all, and certainly not enough to give the government a majority for the complex legislation it will take to put the 585 page agreement into UK law. I see no way of avoiding a full debate on the complete agreement, whatever the draft Withdrawal Agreement Bill might say, allowing plenty of opportunity for doubts to be expressed about many features of this comprehensive lock up of UK sovereignty under a new and damagaing EU Treaty.

Given this Remain may well seek delay instead. The issues this poses are two fold. Why would the EU consent to 3 to 9 nonths delay, given their view that the negotiatons are over and the Agreement cannot be re opened? How would this fit in with their timetable for European elections and a new Commission? Why would they want to prolong the exit of a country that is clearly going to leave and is refusing their expensive terms for an extension of membership?

Worse still is why would the UK want delay? It prolongs business uncertainty. It makes the UK look feeble and indecisive. It delays new trade deals and stops us spending the money saved on exit. It fails to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders.

I do not see how there are things we can get the EU to agree in April and May that we cannot get them to agree in February and March against the pressure of the deadline of our departure. The public want government and Parliament to just get on with it. Tha5 is also the best negotiating strategy.I still want a managed WTO exit with a UK offer of a free trade agreement which could avoid tariffs and other new barriers to our EU trade.

[xxxxxy] 11/2/2019 06:15

The Brexit Party

[xxxxxy] 11/2/2019 06:11

Who is running Brexit policy and what is it?

By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: FEBRUARY 10, 2019

If you listen to Sir Martin Donelly, former Permanent Secretary at the Department of International Trade and friend and supporter of Ollie Robbins, senior civil servant negotiator for the UK, the UK has to accept that the Withdrawal Agreement is as good as it gets and sign it.

So we can guess there is a senior strand of advice and opinion within the current civil service which says the UK must seek to change Parliament’s mind and get on with signing up to the Withdrawal Agreement they have negotiated. Doubtless they will help the PM get some clarification or side document to the Agreement over the backstop to try to secure its passage on a second attempt.That would sign us up to the 21 months or more of very expensive talks, submit us to the Irish backstop which looks like a device to get us to stay in the customs union, and place us at a huge disadvantage in trying to negotiate a so called future partnership.

Much of the civil service work as I understand it from press reports and Ministerial statements has been to map all the contours of our current relationship with the EU and try to replicate them whilst claiming we have in some technical sense left the EU. This of course has all been under the guidance of Ministers, and Ministers have to take responsibility for what the civil service does as soon as they sign the work off. There does not seem to have been any effort to design and table a Free Trade Agreement, and our best trade negotiator Crawford Falconer has been kept well away from all the EU talks.

This strand of opinion gains considerable support from the Chancellor and the Secretary of State for Business. They have expressed their continued regrets at our departing the EU and have made clear their opposition to leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement. They have exuded hostility to WTO Brexit and do not look as if they are trying to smooth our passage in that eventuality. They keep in touch with a limited number of leaders of large international businesses and seem enthusiastic every time one of those speaks out about alleged dangers of leaving. Indeed we can read reports that they encourage businesses to accentuate the negative. Many of the scare stories say we will have trouble importing, yet the government has not set out just why and how it will mess up our ports.

Within government we also have figures like David Liddington, Deputy Prime Minister and Gavin Barwell, Chief of Staff at Number 10 with strong Remain pedigrees who wish to reach out to Labour to find a compromise across Parliament to delay or water down Brexit.

The Prime Minister herself seeks to balance these Remain forces with the much larger number of pro Brexit MPs on the government and DUP benches. She herself always rules out staying in the Customs Union and single market, as stated in the Conservative Manifesto and by both sides in the referendum. She says she does not want No Deal but it has to be there in case there is no agreement which is better. She never wavers in saying we will leave on 29 March.

She has also rubbed out the clear red line in the Manifesto that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and forgotten the promise to negotiate the future partnership in tandem with the withdrawal agreement to maximise leverage and read across.

The problem is the warring factions around the Cabinet table and in Whitehall, where it appears there are more who wish to delay or thwart the will of the people than there are believers in just leaving in March. Parliament has rightly decided the Withdrawal Agreement is a bad deal – or indeed no deal at all, as it does not relate to the future partnership. Most of the time the PM works with the big majority in her party to get us out of the EU on time. When she does she wins the votes. When she tries to reach out to the small Remain group of Conservative MPs and listens too much to those forces in government that still cannot be reconciled to a proper Brexit on 29 March, she stumbles and loses votes. She should now set out a vision of how we will spend the money, use the new powers and settle a new trade policy if we just leave on 29 March.

[stonedyou] 10/2/2019 22:34

I'm not holding my breath......Why not!!!!!

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:14

MoS:

Excerpt:

Royal Bank of Scotland is tipped to announce a £1billion dividend payout this week in a major boost for shareholders – and the taxpayer.

Analysts expect the bank – bailed out by £45.5billion of taxpayer money in 2008 – to unveil a special dividend of 3p per share on top of an ordinary dividend of 6p per share in its annual results on Friday.

That would put the Treasury, which holds 62.3 per cent of RBS shares, in line for a £675million windfall.

unquote

I'm not holding my breath.

[tradejunkie2] 10/2/2019 22:13

Would not be surprised to see 450p on RBS this year

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:10

Lloyds off topic .


Analysts expect RBS to post operating profits of £3.2bn, up from £2.2bn last year, when the bank presents full-year results on Friday.

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:07

Who knows , Brino still looking the outcome . Suspect the best results in 10 years and the last of PPI hit of 500 million . So the floor may well be higher.

[stonedyou] 10/2/2019 22:07

Lying Bob

I take it you don`t have EGG on your face but a island called EIGG on

your.....face!!!!

Humour and you are not.....compatible.....

[tradejunkie2] 10/2/2019 22:05

If we bump into the shop i'll say hello

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:04

Trade junkie 2 go to your local shop buy something for 48 p and hand over a pound . You may well be right.

[tradejunkie2] 10/2/2019 22:02

What's the betting we see 52p this month?

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:01

Interesting read on DUP overplaying their cards.

[bargainbob] 10/2/2019 22:00

Looks like Stoned you does not understand humour , too much hatred I suspect.

[minerve] 10/2/2019 21:58

cheshire

First, did I endorse at anytime the actions of Soros? No, I did not. So you can throw that stupid comment of yours in the bin.

The point is these hedge funds should not be allowed to play with our futures in the way that they do in order to make themselves and their mates hundreds of millions of pounds.

It seems Odey was heavily funding the Leave campaign whilst at the same time shorting pound sterling with the belief that Leave would eventually win, which it did. It also seems that Farage, or at least those close to him, were also engaged in similar behaviour.

Anyone with any sense would no doubt question the integrity of all those involved. Are they truly for Brexit, or are they just interested in the opportunities for FX trade that Brexit delivers? I would say judging by their business, and the history of Mr Farage, it is the latter.

Also, anyone with any sense would believe that it is also unacceptable that a prominent politician should be having any relationships with the likes of Crispen Odey at all. If you are a true democrat this should concern you. Is Mr Farage going to listen to cheshire pete and his cohort about the future of the UK or is he just going to listen to Crispen Odey and other hedge fund managers?

In business, many transactions legally have to be shown to be done at 'arm's length'. Politicians and politics should take note.

If you think that is clever what Crispen Odey did, you were on the opposite side to that trade.

You really are a 1st Class fool, no doubt about that!

[cheshire pete] 10/2/2019 21:52

The force is with Brexit k38. Remain is for losers.

[k38] 10/2/2019 21:50

1 February 2019 A new Brexit party backed by Nigel Farage has received pledges worth more than £1million and is lining up a slate of candidates to fight in elections

[cheshire pete] 10/2/2019 21:29

So what Minerve, it's ok for Liberal Soros to break the BofE by selling Sterling while Major, Lamont and Heseltine tried to shadow the DMark but not ok for hedge funds to make money on Brexit referendum. The opinion polls predicted a remain outcome, so they were taking a contrarian view. They were then obviously quicker off the mark with their exit poll while all the other suckers were still believing the rubbish being fed to them by the BBC lol. Pretty smart thinking in my book.

[patientcapital] 10/2/2019 21:24

Are we supposed to be surprised?"BREXITEER MEP Daniel Hannan has published a scorching take-down of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.Mr Hannan claimed the EU chief is "rude, smug and frequently sozzled". He added that the Luxembourgish politician is "why Britain voted leave" in his Sunday Telegraph column. He accused Mr Juncker of harboring "anti-British" attitudes, as well as "contempt" for democratic processes."

[stonedyou] 10/2/2019 21:22

Lying Bob - So you are saying ear that is - Someone has a island called....

Eigg on his face......Your a NUTTER?????




The Guinness book of records will be in touch Stoned you , for the most fud comments in a day ,?

Eigg is a Scottish island .





Though Yell will not let it happen without a shout . So someone may end up with Eigg on their face.so as you see a lot to Mull over befor Bute is declared the winner.

[minerve] 10/2/2019 21:16

On hearing about the referendum result, Odey said: “I feel fantastic. It’s a fantastic decision by the electorate.” Odey had a special reason to feel “fantasticR21;. He’d bet on Brexit hitting the pound by “shorting̶1; sterling and moving 65% of his fund into gold in anticipation. Odey’s fund made £220 million in the space of a few hours. As he said at the time: “I think I may be the winner.”

It has been claimed that several of Nigel Farage‘s supporters also made tidy sums by shorting the pound and UK stocks, and were helped to do so by Farage’s surprising statement early on the night of the referendum that it “looks like Remain will edge it”.

According to Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman, Farage had already been told of the results of a large private exit poll commissioned by “10 different financial institutions and hedge funds that wanted the best information money could buy in order to construct their trading positions” – and this poll had indicated a win for Leave. It is not known whether Odey’s was among the funds that commissioned the poll.