Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 02/3/2019 07:22

Getting the economy growing faster
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: MARCH 2, 2019
Too much navel gazing about Brexit is crowding out time and space to discuss how we should respond to the worldwide slowdown in growth, to the recession in parts of the European continent, and to the need for policy change here to stimulate more enterprise, jobs and higher living standards.

In the USA, UK, Euro area and China the Central Banks have been tightening. Money and credit growth slowed markedly in 2018 especially in the UK. The US had rate rises and reduced Quantitative easing, but there was a big offset with the large tax cuts the President put through the Congress. Money growth fell off late last year. This year the Fed has reduced its QE cancellation rate and signalled a softer approach, leading to some rebound in money growth and a big rally in share markets from relief.

In the UK we had two rate rises, the cancellation of special loan facilities for the commercial banks, no more QE and tough guidance on consumer credit, on top end mortgages and car loans. Money growth halved. UK tax policy has been hostile to property and to cars, with big hikes in Stamp Duties on numerous transactions, and in Vehicle Excise Duty deterring purchases of new vehicles. UK fiscal policy has also tightened considerably, and this year there was an additional substantial further tightening from an unplanned extra cut in the deficit.

In China a doubling of car purchase tax to 10% and a credit squeeze brought down their car market and added to the slowdown induced by tougher money policies. In the Eurozone they ended Quantitative easing , continued to battle under reserved banks and hit the car industry with new emissions regulations. The gilet jaune protests damaged French sales and growth. Italy moved into recession. Germany had a fall in GDP in Q3 with no growth in Q4.

In such conditions with slowdown in our major trading partners around the world the UK should be taking sensible measures to promote expansion. Inflation is below target and unlikely to become a problem any time soon. The government should cut Stamp Duties. The present rates are reducing the revenues and have caused quite a shortfall compared to Treasury and OBR forecasts. The government should take VED back to pre 2017 budget levels to reduce the tax on buying a new car. Business rates on the High Street should be cut to help retailers. VAT should be removed from green products and domestic fuel, helping keep inflation down. The Bank of England should announce new good value loan facilities for commercial banks wanting to on lend for new business and growth. It should remove its special strictures against car loans as there is no evidence of credit danger threatening the system. It should state, as the Fed has now done, that it will be patient before any rate rise, and will want to see evidence of faster economic growth and a decisive upturn in money growth before a rate rise. This should all happen whatever we do on Brexit.

Let us assume we leave on 29 March without signing the Withdrawal Agreement which is what will happen unless Parliament legislates to delay or stop Brexit or legislates some Withdrawal Treaty. The government should then hold a budget in early April to spend the money we will be saving from end March on our net budget contributions. It could spend an additional £12 bn next year on better public services and tax cuts without increasing the deficit. Given the substantial tightening and the low level of the planned deficit I would go further and spend £20bn or half the budgeted £39bn cost of the Withdrawal Agreement in the first year. That would provide a welcome 1% boost to the economy. Our schools, social care and public security budgets all need more, whilst selective tax cuts could boost home buying, cars, green products and the High Street if we cut VED, Stamp Duty, Business rates and VAT. Some of these tax cuts would yield more revenues as they are currently stifling business.

[m4rtinu] 02/3/2019 07:00

First day of buyback didnt do much for share price Esp as FTSE up.

[m4rtinu] 02/3/2019 06:58

First day of buyback sidnt do much for share price Esp as FTSE up.

[k38] 01/3/2019 23:54

By the way bob..I think you are better off as independents only If UK stay in Europe and no the other way round. Just think of this.But again, this is not independent so if I was you i would no lose any sleep over this.

[stonedyou] 01/3/2019 22:43

Unless I`m reading it wrong......it seems big business doesn`t fear Brexit!!

So CLIFF EDGE, CRASHING OUT, CHAOS, is only.....in "Remainer drains" deranged

minds......



Business borrowing from banks and financial markets leapt to £9.2bn compared to

the month before compared to the £2.4bn average seen in 2018. Bank lending to

large businesses now is growing at a 6% year-over-year rate, which the BoE said

largely reflected a rise in M&A activity from large companies.

"We suspect that the wider pick-up in borrowing also reflects firms locking-in

finance ahead of Brexit, in case financial market gum up in a no-deal scenario,"

said economist Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

[stonedyou] 01/3/2019 22:26

Lying Bob - are you stating K38..... as illegal

[stonedyou] 01/3/2019 22:23

Lying Bob - What part of my post..... was against immigrants!!!

[bargainbob] 01/3/2019 22:16

Not nice for K38 hearing your rant against immigrants.

[stonedyou] 01/3/2019 21:53

How can you have accurate...... "HATED EU" immigration figures.... when anyone

from the "HATED EU" can come here.....with out a passport....It`s called free

movement with in the "HATED EU".....I do notice they don`t talk....about illegal

immigration...... anyone care to speculate them figures!!!



"Latest immigration numbers show a collapse in numbers from the EU."

[corpbull] 01/3/2019 21:30

Shy! How did you come to that conclusion? I hardly post, just enjoy reading Min's banter. He is a remainer! i am a 100 percent Brexiteer! lol

[minerve 2] 01/3/2019 19:47

LOL

Tea and biscuits too thanks.

[jasierock] 01/3/2019 19:41

Nice to see a post about Lloy jpj without it being followed by

ROFLMAO

Prepare the padded cell, here's...... Minerve2

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:27

That was covering , sorry coving is what I have to put up sometimes lol

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:26

That was covering , sorry coving is what I have to put up sometimes lol

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:24

Of the 17 Brokers coving LLOY 11 Buy, 6 Hold , and only 1 sell and a consensus of 72.50pHave a good weekend all :)

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:23

Poor day here, I think it was a bit of profit takingWhat happened here this weekWe went up 2.85p or a massive 4.75%It hit a high of 64.03p and a low of 59.93p FT 100 - 71.87pointsComments this week UBS a Buy TP 80p, & Berenberg put a hold and TP 60p

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:23

Of the 17 Brokers coving LLOY 11 Buy, 6 Hold , and only 1 sell and a consensus of 72.50pHave a good weekend all :)

[careful] 01/3/2019 19:22

'unelected bureaucrats...'
Nigel Farage gets elected, as they all do, and then he taunts 'unelected bureaucrats'.

Even a dedicated Brexiteer should be able to spot the contradiction in that sentence.

[jpjohn1] 01/3/2019 19:21

Poor day here, I think it was a bit of profit takingWhat happened here this weekWe went up 2.85p or a massive 4.75%It hit a high of 64.03p and a low of 59.93p FT 100 - 71.87pointsComments this week UBS a Buy TP 80p, & Berenberg put a hold and TP 60p

[k38] 01/3/2019 18:32

I think 29 is going to be the date. The last thing these bureaucrats wants is a Nigel Farage real nightmare, win seats in Brussels and telling them every day to these unelected bureaucrats how stupid they are.. lol

[careful] 01/3/2019 18:27

Unintended consequences.
Latest immigration numbers show a collapse in numbers from the EU. but a huge increase from elsewhere including India.

Indians are insisting that if we want a trade deal then all Indian students have the right to stay.
Just think, our wonderful new trade deals will result in freedom of movement and a massive increase is immigration.

you have laugh.

[shy tott] 01/3/2019 17:39

Graham, yes many will never change where they put their cross, but plenty will. Those areas devastated by the eu (fishing and steel towns for example) will migrate from their usual parties to vote for a party which will enact their wishes to get out of the eu. May has screwed it I'm afraid - after months and months of 'I'll ensure we're leaving end March under all circumstances' won't go unnoticed, even by those who rarely follow politics. The Brexit party I think will grab several seats at the first opportunity, if we're still in the eu in April.

[shy tott] 01/3/2019 17:28

Agree Minerve 2 is not minerve. Corpbull is minerve, he just can't hide that engrained attention seeking.

[cheshire pete] 01/3/2019 17:21

Geoffrey Cox will sort them out polar fox. He's very well qualified and articulate so shouldn't be a problem. TM just needs to convince everyone that we do have a legally binding time limit and exit mechanism from the backstop, while the EU have to make sure that we don't to prevent other member states from trying to leave the sinking ship. Simple, what's all the fuss about lol.