Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 22:07

Aside. The internal combustion engine is going the way of the steam engine. Change, progress and other considerations. Otherwise we would all still be living in caves

LEAVE and WTO

Nos da. Cymru am byth

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 22:02

The effects of Brexit on the UK economy



5 | CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, I have summarised work my co‐authors and I have done on the effects of Brexit on
the UK economy, with particular emphasis on the trade effects where controversy has been greatest. I have also reviewed the work on trade done by others and particularly that of the Treasury
and the rest of Whitehall who are responsible for official advice to Ministers.
The key point of this review is that this Civil Service work has taken a sharp turn in the past
year towards the CGE methods we have been using throughout and has rightly in our view abandoned the original Treasury methodology of gravity‐based associations which are incapable of
establishing causality. In this methodological sense, our work is certainly not, as repeatedly
claimed by our opponents, an “outlier” but rather entirely “mainstream.” Where the Civil Service
continues to differ from us is in their assumptions about the extent to which FTAs with the rest of
the world can reduce current EU protection and also about the trade and border barriers that would
be created between us and the EU. However, these assumptions of theirs are almost impossible to
justify, since such barriers would be illegal and the scope for reducing EU protection is very large.
Once one substitutes reasonable assumptions into the type of world trade model used by the
Civil Service, the trade effects estimated for Brexit become positive and potentially rather large.
When one adds these to the less controversial gains from proceeding with UK‐created regulation
of the economy, the control of unskilled immigration and the ceasing of our payments into the EU
budget, the gains to the UK economy suggest that growth could rise by around 0.5% per annum
on average for the next decade and a half.

[cheshire pete] 18/2/2019 22:02

Spot on xxxxxy, remoaners reluctant to think forwards and are frightened of taking risks and seizing opportunities.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 21:40

zorro
Posted February 18, 2019 at 8:36 am | Permalink

Of course, there is a future! There is no growth in the EU. Growth over the next decades will be in emerging markets, where our trade is positive and growing as opposed to struggling with the EU and eternal trade deficits. A lot of our exports (new technology) are highly marketable in non-EU markets.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 21:37

Mark B
Posted February 18, 2019 at 6:05 am | Permalink
Good morning.

. . . their aim was to take more and more powers of self determination away from member states . . .

That is what EVER CLOSER UNION means but few really understand its significance. The aim is to create a single unified State under the ever watchful power of the Civil Service of each member country coordinated and controlled from Brussels. Into this comes big corporate business which can influence both legislation and, spending.

. . . regulation was based on a Franco German way of conducting business . . .

Well of course it would. France and Germany finally realised that neither could rule Europe so, they used the concept created by Jean Monnet and Sir Arthur Salter (the EU) as a means to share it between themselves. How is it that every member has to sell off, usually to German or French owners, and they do not ? What is the point of the UK privatising its utilities only for French and German government owned ones to buy them ? We’ve been conned by those two for the last 40 odd years. It all started when they demanded as a precondition of us joining that we handed over our fishing grounds. That was never an EEC competence BEFORE we joined only at the point of us joining. That is why to me and many others we are determined to get them back.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 21:30

The EU is desperate to lock us into the CU
It perpetuates the massive Trade Surplus of £90 billion
It keeps Irish farmers (ROI to be more precise) in business - 70% of their produce is sold in the U.K. Tariffs of 55% on beef and 60% on beef (WTO) will destroy that trade - but only if we get tariff free trade deals. The CU stops these negotiations.
German cars come in tariff free. Korean cars have a 10% tariff
Won’t it be great to see German cars having a 10% tariff while their US and Korean competitors are tariff free.
AND WHAT IS EVEN SWEETER - those tariffs will go to HM exchequer instead of Brussels.
A 20% price difference will be bound to have a detrimental effect on German car sales.
ITS ABOUT THE MONEY - we buy their stuff - they want competitors kept out.
Plus one more sweet thing ...NO DIVORCE BILL.....
Once we get rid of the Remainer Theresa May - who still believes the EU wants a partner - when EVERYONE knows they want a vassal state.
WE WILL BE FREE

[jacko07] 18/2/2019 21:27

"we are a vital organ"

I shall let Minerve do the honours with a reply. ;)

Well, even he is a tad brighter than the Forex flop.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 21:21

Why we will be better off out of the EU

By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: FEBRUARY 23, 2018

Prosperity, not austerity.
That must be our aim.
The £12bn we send every year to the EU and do not get back is lost money to the UK. Worse still it is a large drag on our balance of payments every year. To pay that bill we either have to borrow more money from abroad to pay it or we have to sell more of our assets to overseas buyers, cutting the investment income we earn on those assets.
There is no need for a Transition or Implementation period if there is no good deal to transit to.
We know we can trade well under WTO rules and with WTO tariffs, as that is what we do today with most countries outside the EU.
We can remove VAT from green items ranging from boiler controls to draught excluders.
When the UK joined the EU we had a 45 million tonnes a year steel industry. Today we are battling to save an 11 million tonnes industry.
When we joined the EU we had a 400,000 tonnes a year aluminium industry. Today we have just 43,000 tonnes of capacity left.
When we joined the EU we had 20 million tonnes of cement capacity. Today we have 12 million tonnes.
Just before we joined the EEC in 1971 we had a 1 million tonnes a year fishing industry. Today we have 600,000 tonnes.
The October 2013 government “Future of Manufacturing” Report shows that between 1951 and 1973 metals output rose 3% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has declined by more than 6%
Between 1951 and 1973 food and drink output rose by 5.6% per year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by 1% a year.
Between 1951 and 1973 textiles output expanded at 2.6% a year. Since joining the EEC/EU it has fallen by more than 6% a year.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 21:13

No Deal is Best Deal



LEAVE and WTO

[diku] 18/2/2019 21:11

bob...now that is my kind of era...

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 20:39

No deal is existentialist.



LEAVE and WTO

[bargainbob] 18/2/2019 20:36

Just for you Diku.

[careful] 18/2/2019 20:36

Impossible to have a serious discussion with Brexiteers about risk.
This Honda/JLR/Nissan/Dyson/Barclays can transfer is a serious trend.

You must be a bit worried if you have half os a brain.


When will xxxx realise that £9bn per year is peanuts.
We are talking about trillions here.

[diku] 18/2/2019 20:09

Is it 7 quit so far...how they all announce their resignations on the same day...did they have secret meetings in the pub?...and did one of them say the Party is rotten to the core?...they are scoring their own goals...

[hodhasharon] 18/2/2019 20:08

Buy set for 47p.

[xxxxxy] 18/2/2019 19:47

Does Japan pay 39 billion to trade.

The EUSSR is using the soft UK as a Treasure House to rob.


LEAVE and WTO

[alphorn] 18/2/2019 18:35

"we are a vital organ"

I shall let Minerve do the honours with a reply. ;)

[k38] 18/2/2019 18:33

The UK will be under pressure to replicate the European Union's trade deal with Japan if it wants to protect thousands of jobs at car companies like Nissan and Honda, analysts have suggested.But the car companies' operations across national borders within the bloc could be hampered by Brexit, another experts said.

[jacko07] 18/2/2019 18:30

The UK will be in clover post Brexit and we also won't be putting tariffs on cars manufactured in Japan, so the Nissan, Honda and Toyota, Lexus, Mitsubuishi will possibly be a lot chaeper than European cars.

All of the stories about our demise are nonsense, we are a vital organ in Europe, remove us and expect Japan, the US or any other country to fill the void is as crazy as those who told us we would be doomed if we didn't adopt the Euro.

New car sales are at worldwide lows, it is odds on we will get the usual doom mongers blaming Brexit, that is to be expected.

The World is changing, we have a golden opportunity. Thank your lucky stars we never adopted the Euro and pray that we leave the sinking ship on March 29th.

[newbank] 18/2/2019 18:25

Min,

Wishful thinking Chelsea beating Man U :)

[k38] 18/2/2019 18:24

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/japan-trade-deal-brexit-uk-car-manufacturing-european-union-nissan-honda-a8452091.html

[minerve] 18/2/2019 18:15

Look forward to C4 news tonight for entertainment then over to BBC1 to watch Chelsea beat ManUre in the FA Cup.

[minerve] 18/2/2019 18:13

Nevermind they can all go and work for that fantastic employer Mike Ashley - a great visionary, or the other oracle Tim Martin. ROFLMAO!