Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 05/12/2020 11:10

EUSSR. Goodbye and good riddance to bad rubbish.

[xxxxxy] 05/12/2020 11:09

EXCLUSIVE: "We can and must act now, to protect the UK from the Eurozone"Part Two of the first readable summary of the EU's 'level playing field' economic hypocrisy?© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2020Professor David Blake explains it in everyday language for MPs and ordinary votersA Brexit Facts4EU.Org two-part special - Part TwoRead yesterday's Part One hereThis two-part article is about the euro and how the EU has used it to benefit the 19 Eurozone countries – especially Germany – and to damage the UK. In his second piece below, Professor Blake shows what needs to be done about the 'level playing field'.BREXIT FACTS4EU.ORG SUMMARYIn Part One of his article yesterday he explained:How the EU's Euro currency has been used to dump its goods at artificially-reduced prices onto the UK and world markets for yearsHow this has increased the massive trade deficit which the UK has with the EUHow Germany has benefited most of allToday, Professor Blake explains:The risks of the Euro to the UK and the WorldThe opportunities for Brexit Britain to counter the threat and deal with itAbout the author: David Blake is Professor of Finance at City, University of London, and is a member of Economists for Free Trade. He has been published regularly in the Daily Telegraph, Financial News, City AM, CAPX, and others, and is writing here in a personal capacity."WE CAN AND MUST ACT NOW, TO PROTECT THE UK FROM THE EUROZONE"By Professor David Blake, 04 Dec 2020?© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2020Reminder from Part One: The European Union is seeking a 'level playing field' with the UK after Brexit. One of the key issues concerning the EU is 'dumping'. It is worried that the UK will become a super-competitive, de-regulated 'Singapore-on-Thames', undercutting the prices of products produced in the EU.In fact the opposite is the case and below are some threats but also some opportunities.Here is what the UK could doThe UK government has introduced a Trade Bill which will establish a new Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) to prevent countries from dumping cheap goods onto the UK market and potentially putting key domestic industries out of business.The Bill may have been intended to target China, in particular, but trade remedies can be levied against any World Trade Organisation member, including the EU, whether or not there is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in place.The EU wants its unfair practices to continue, tying the UK into EU lawWe are told that the EU 'holds all the cards' in the trade negotiations with the UK. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is "ready to design a new partnership with zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping" with the UK.The EU's current treaty-based proposal for avoiding trade dumping would involve the UK applying EU law. This includes (extraordinarily and uniquely in international trade between properly sovereign nations) the application of that law as interpreted by the European Court of Justice.?© EU ParliamentThis would have the effect of permanently advantaging Germany and other Eurozone (EZ) member state beneficiaries and continuing an arrangement that is demonstrably unfair to the UK.It is quite shocking that the new German president of the European Commission calls for zero dumping, when her own country is one of the world's biggest dumpers of goods onto world markets.The UK's massive deficit with the EU, due to the euroThe UK has always run a trade deficit with EU, but the chart below shows that prior to the introduction of the euro in 1999, the size of the deficit was relatively small at around 0.25% of GDP. But since then, the deficit has ballooned to nearly 4% of GDP. The chart shows a strong downward trend and that trend shows no sign of ending. By contrast, we have a trade surplus with non-EU states and that surplus is on a strong upward trend. And most of the trade with with non-EU states is conducted on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms and hence involves tariffs.This chart conclusively demonstrates that sterling is not overvalued (otherwise the trade surplus with non-EU states would not be increasing year-on-year), but that the euro is significantly undervalued.?© House of Commons Library: Research briefing 10 Nov 2020, 'Statistics on UK-EU Trade'A trade deal on the basis of the current structural undervaluation of the euro will only entrench the EU's structural trade surplus with the UK. The undervalued euro acts as a trade subsidy to firms from within these countries, giving them an advantage over global competitors.We can and must act now to protect UK interestsThis cannot be permitted to continue and the solutions are clear. The trade agreement currently being negotiated with the EU is a trap from which we could never exit if Boris Johnson signs it. We can and must act now, to protect the UK from the Eurozone. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) must be rescinded and Parliament must pass legislation, such as the Internal Market Bill and the Finance Bill, which reverses the appalling consequences of the WA for the unity of the UK.?© No.10Especially important is the Trade Bill and the introduction of the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) which will allow the UK to conduct its own dumping and subsidies investigations. The TRA's first task should be to take a very close look at the structurally undervalued euro. This potentially violates two areas of international law: dumping and subsidies.First, Article VI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) points out that multiple currency practices can 'constitute a form of dumping by means of a partial depreciation of a country's currency', thereby benefitting EZ exporters unfairly. The anti-dumping remedy in this case is the imposition by the importing state of an additional duty on the dumped goods.Second, artificially low currencies could amount to an export subsidy and therefore breach the WTO's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM).Had the euro been correctly valued, then EZ exports to the UK in 2018 would have been lower by between £67.2bn and £88.4bn. The UK would therefore be entitled to impose an annual anti-dumping duty on the EZ in that range. We should note that China just imposed anti-dumping duties of between 107%-212% on Australian wine.?Trading on WTO termsFinally, we should not be afraid of trading with the EU on WTO terms. Although this would involve tariffs, the average tariff is low, at around 3%. The benefit is that we would escape the myriad traps that the EU has set for us.And trading with the rest of the world on WTO terms has done us no harm at all. In addition, we will be able to negotiate FTAs with these other countries and this will remove tariffs with them altogether.Part Two of a two-part article by Professor David BlakeDon't miss Part One which we ran in yesterday's edition of Facts4EU.Org.Note: This two-part series is the result of a collaboration between Facts4EU.Org and Professor Blake with the aim of publishing a short and accessible version of his much longer academic paper. The full version of Professor Blake's 23-page paper can be found here or here.OBSERVATIONSThe EU's unreasonable demands and behaviourThe trade talks were paused yesterday, having become deadlocked after the EU suddenly increased its demands on Thursday. The details of these demands have not been officially released by either side, although there have been various off-the-record hints by diplomats and government spokesmen.Whatever the details, one thing is clear. The EU is a very long way from treating the UK like a free, independent, and sovereign country. Against this background, the precise percentages of fish that will continue to be taken from UK waters are – forgive us – a red herring. The reality is much simpler. There never has been a level playing field for the UK, and the EU now wish to entrench this in a treaty. It also demands that the UK obeys its diktats, making the idea of the UK becoming a sovereign nation again a non-starter.The EU's uneven playing fieldIn his two-part article, Professor Blake has demonstrated how the EU has used its structurally undervalued Euro currency to dominate trade between the bloc and the UK. In doing so he has shown the shocking scale of the EU's duplicity in demanding a 'level playing field', tying the UK into EU laws and regulations.The playing field has always been uneven, in part because of because of the reasons Professor Blake has outlined above, and also because of the fact that the EU has almost always acted in the interests of its continental members and has sidelined the UK's national interests.With the exception of the UK's first year of membership the UK has only ever subsidised the EU. This is clear from the official declarations of the UK's net annual contributions to Brussels, but Professor Blake has explained how the true costs started ballooning when the EU created its artificial currency, the euro.We hope you found this two-part series has helped to illuminate a misunderstood and ignored aspect to the EU's treatment of the United Kingdom. If the UK does in fact leave the EU as a sovereign country in 26 days' time, it will be able to start the long process of redress. If Mr Johnson fudges a 'deal' and fails to rescind the Withdrawal Agreement, then it will be more or less 'business as usual with Treasure Island' for the European Union.And that would be truly unforgiveable, Prime Minister.Professor Blake and other senior economists have been working to get this message out to MPs and voters for a long time, but articles about economics have never been a easy sell. We would like to thank Professor Blake for shedding some light on this important subject for ordinary voters and MPs for the first time.Finally, as ever we must appeal for your help to keep going. Covid and its impacts have hit the level of donations we receive. If you can, (and especially if you have never donated to us in the last five years), please make a donation today, no matter how small. We rely 100% on the generosity of people like you. Quick, secure, and confidential donation links are below. Thank you so much.[ Sources: Professor David Blake ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 05 Dec 2020

[scruff1] 05/12/2020 11:08

Ian Douglas Smith a tad weaker Alp !!

[minerve 2] 05/12/2020 11:08

"Brexiteers will sleep just fine when this country is once again free, independent, sovereign."


........to trade on WTO rules.



:)

[lefrene] 05/12/2020 11:07

I was fishing Alp :¬) The bait worked really fast :¬)

[minerve 2] 05/12/2020 11:06

Tygarreg

Your understanding is slightly wrong.

The intrinsic value of the commodity remains the same on a falling $. So if the $ falls its price in $ increases. The reasons driving a lower $ may or may not eventually end-up affecting commodity prices. As the intrinsic value of the commodity remains the same the £ buyer - even though he can buy more $ - sees no real difference in commodity price.

Also, US manufacturing maybe cheaper with a falling $ but that will depend upon the make-up of their products and services. If a US manufacturer depends largely upon components sourced abroad their manufacturing costs increase on a $ basis.

And it goes the same with dividends. I have Philip Morris in my portfolio - actually it is one of my largest holdings. A falling $ does make the dividends lower on a £ vs $ basis but equally, seeing as Philip Morris revenue is nearly all non-US (they have a license agreement with Altria), a falling $ increases earnings on a $ basis because it is world-wide income. Sort of swings and roundabouts. I read an interesting article once about whether you should hedge portfolios to remove currency risk - if you are a general equity investor - the conclusion was not to bother on large internationals.

[alphorn] 05/12/2020 11:06

lef - very weak, even for you.

[alphorn] 05/12/2020 11:05

G2 - are you the reincarnation of Ian Douglas Smith? He said exactly the same thing.

[lefrene] 05/12/2020 11:03

Macron and Barnier decide to set up a chain of fish and fritte shops, they then tell the owner of the fish that they are entitled to steal them, just because they are French. The owner of the fish tells them to take a hike, Macron and Barnier throw a temper tantrum and make threats, again.

[grahamite2] 05/12/2020 10:47

Brexiteers will sleep just fine when this country is once again free, independent, sovereign. Just fine.

[tygarreg] 05/12/2020 10:44

The US Dollar is weakening by the day. It's gone from 1.20 to 1.35 to the pound in recent weeks. This will make worldwide commodity prices a lot cheaper which doesnt help miners, it makes any dividends paid in dollars worth less to us. It makes US manufacturing more competitive and cheapens our raw materials like ore and oil in uk! Interesting dynamics!

[scruff1] 05/12/2020 10:36

Dont like getting involved in these interpersonal things but I do have to take exception here minnie. 'I dont mind which way it goes' . Whats caused the big change?

[scruff1] 05/12/2020 10:31

That's if anything is solved by easter. Beginning to wonder whether Brexit negotiations are a bit like Covid. We gonna have to live it cos no one has the balls to sort it.

[minerve 2] 05/12/2020 10:31

We will be free. We will be sovereign. We will be able to choose to trade under WTO rules rather than choosing to trade free under EU rules!

LOL!

What numpties.

[minerve 2] 05/12/2020 10:30

I don't mind which way it goes. I am enjoying the comedy.

[scruff1] 05/12/2020 10:26

It certainly is. Leavers are his only life line. The wife voted conservative for the first time ever last election and she already regrets it and is adamant never again. If he messes this up I cant see him lasting past easter without a major party split

[pal44] 05/12/2020 10:17

Nah deal Coming out soon else bojo is dead politically

[scruff1] 05/12/2020 10:13

I don't know whether its a good thing or a bad thing in this case. He has no real strategic objectives. He does whatever the last person he met thinks is a good idea.
He wants to be thought well of. Lets hope the last people he met were J Redwood and IDS and nut nuts put him in the spare room last night

[asa8] 05/12/2020 10:05

Johnson will sell the British out like he’s signing up to all this green nonsense and then decides to build a railway through 22 areas of specific nature interest

[freddie ferret] 05/12/2020 09:46

No far better if Boris is seen to have behaved resonably at all times, but the EU were just unreasonable in their expectations.

[maxk] 05/12/2020 09:43

Some Eurosceptic Tory MPs urged Mr Johnson to walk away. Andrew Bridgen said: 'I am very worried that the Prime Minister is about to sign up to something unacceptable. If Boris sells us out on Brexit then he is finished, and I think he knows that.'

[alphorn] 05/12/2020 09:41

ff - Lizard is an idiot that it consistently proves. A barometer of poor judgment. At some point it will implode.