Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 15/6/2020 22:51

================= FED buying company bonds saves markets ===================

For now -- see buywell buy thread for more info


Asset values on most company balance sheets , and on banks balance sheets are now IMO not worth taking a lot of notice of .

BP. just wrote effectively down theirs by circa $17.5 Billion , which buywell believes is not enough because they see Brent OIL at $55 a barrel for their calcs . buywell sees it as $27.5 , as we go into a years long Global Recession.

Governments are money printing and paper money as $ Trillions of stimulus gets pumped into markets is soon going to drop the value of paper money V the increase of debt/credit and doing more and more of the same in the face of an unusual situation such as this new modern Global Recession based upon a Global Trade model will be , it will last years.

Asset values on balance sheets will HAVE to be written down again and again whilst it lasts IMO

dyor


The DOW recently went to circa 18,591 from 29,551 a drop of 11,000 points
So if it just repeats from here it will go below 15000 for those who do not dyor

[grahamite2] 15/6/2020 22:51

cheshire pete - Rees Mogg, a true Englishman, always did say 6 feet in the Commons.

[grahamite2] 15/6/2020 22:49

m_n_tomlinson - do you remember the Private Eye cartoon some years ago - one chap says, I'm writing a novel, and the other replies, oh, neither am I.

[cheshire pete] 15/6/2020 22:45

You must be joking Bob, wouldn't dream of going anywhere near shops with all those virus carrying muppets ignoring social distancing rules. Still getting through stockpile of tins lol.

One thing about investing, you learn about contrary thinking...whatever the masses do then do the opposite.

Mark Wallace on SKY good point if they'd said 6 feet to start with they could have gone for 5ft and then 4ft subsequently instead of 2m then 1m.

Imperial rather than metric now we've left EU anyway.

[jl5006] 15/6/2020 22:43

And what has the Sage group done to alleviate such concerns.
NOTHING
What has Sage group done to support their theory - NOTHING PUBLICally.

[grahamite2] 15/6/2020 22:39

You've forgotten your own language, Alphorn. I said you can't describe a deal as good without knowing its terms - and that is incontrovertible fact.

[jl5006] 15/6/2020 22:39

What a sad state of affairs.
The remoaners never stop.
The people reliant on the view of experts find themselves not knowing whether to come or go or just die in despair - with c 19 of course.
there are more MSNs now than than there ever were when G Brown released them to mix normally.
BBC & Sky have tortured people into believing that they will die should they get near to another human being.
That is the end of.

[buywell3] 15/6/2020 22:38

================= FED buying company bonds saves markets ===================

For now -- see buywell buy thread for more info


Asset values on most company balance sheets , and on banks balance sheets are now IMO not worth taking a lot of notice of .

BP. just wrote effectively down theirs by circa $17.5 Billion , which buywell believes is not enough because they see Brent OIL at $55 a barrel for their calcs . buywell sees it as $27.5 , as we go into a years long Global Recession.

Governments are money printing and paper money as $ Trillions of stimulus gets pumped into markets is soon going to drop the value of paper money V the increase of debt/credit and doing more and more of the same in the face of an unusual situation such as this new modern Global Recession based upon a Global Trade model will be , it will last years.

Asset values on balance sheets will HAVE to be written down again and again whilst it lasts IMO

dyor

[m_n_tomlinson] 15/6/2020 22:38

Utrickytrees15 Jun '20 - 18:23 - 307511 of 307528
0 3 0

'The BBC is actually offensive.'

It certainly is.

[alphorn] 15/6/2020 22:19

G2 - you really think that it has changed???

Overdosed on Express I think.

[grahamite2] 15/6/2020 22:16

Alphorn 15 Jun '20 - 19:23 - 307516 of 307526
0 0 0
Swiss news reporting that a Brexit deal could be there in July.
freddie01 15 Jun '20 - 19:30 - 307517 of 307526
0 0 0
If true Alphorn good news.

Freddie, how can you say it's good news without the slightest knowledge of the terms? This is the sort of nonsense we saw before Boris came along. The idea that any "deal" is better than no deal is plainly bonkers.

[bargainbob] 15/6/2020 22:00

Pete how was Cheshire Oaks m8 ?

[cheshire pete] 15/6/2020 21:42

492: "The EUSSR want s NO Deal. Best news yet. Thanks.

NO Deal it is."

We don't want a deal, they don't want a deal. End talks now and everyone gets what they want, game over.

[maxk] 15/6/2020 21:24

The story so far. The comment below sums it up for the tories.

Julie Blinde
112 comments187 votes


I hope that Boris realises the next election is being fought right now - and not in 4 years time.

[xxxxxy] 15/6/2020 19:47

No Deal it is then
NO DEAL

[tygarreg] 15/6/2020 19:46

Bargainbob is that a copy and paste of the latest Momentum missive. Getting a bit predictable these days.

[xxxxxy] 15/6/2020 19:46

Fred Spurgin
15 Jun 2020 6:16PM
Foundations appear to be on rather sandy soil -- the EU claim that the level playing field will have to stay and in that case no one in their right mind would sign up to such a deal (yes.....I know the obvious answer to that one !!)

...
Derek Kemp
15 Jun 2020 5:17PM
Don't sell us out Boris shed loads of voters are watching you and so is Nigel.

...
Janet Warrior
15 Jun 2020 5:14PM
As long as Barnier sticks to his level playing field and fishing unicorn demands, on top of his ridiculous tying in of defence and security to a trade deal, there will be no deal. They won’t talk sense until the transition is nearly over, or even beyond it, as is their wont.

...
Ann Standing
15 Jun 2020 4:46PM
Author of this article has gone rogue. So he believes we must concede our territorial waters, agree to LPF, ECJ oversight and a host of other conditions so that we continue to run a £90bn trade deficit in the EUs favour. Pull the other one, it's got bells on!

...

M Maccallum
15 Jun 2020 4:29PM
@Gareth Mandel @M Maccallum



Yeah, well we export a lot less to the EU than we do to the rest of the world on WTO, and as everyone on these threads never tires of telling you, our exports to the EU amount to about 4-5 % of our gdp. And that figure is declining year on year.



It’s the EU that has the problem, not us.



Why do you keep droning on day after day on the same false premise? You’ve had it explained to you by dozens of different people why you are wrong. But you still don’t get it.

.
David James
15 Jun 2020 7:08PM
@M Maccallum @Gareth Mandel



I understand the total is even smaller. The World Bank reported No Deal ‘might’ impact the U.K. economy by 0.25% of GDP.



That’s before any benefit from leaving and doing FTAs with fair reasonable trading nations, not EU mafia intent on extortion, blackmail and political domination to screw the rules.

[xxxxxy] 15/6/2020 19:40

Don't give an inch.

NO DEAL

[xxxxxy] 15/6/2020 19:39

Analysis: Deal is there to be done on the Brexit battleground
The UK and EU may be beating their chests in public but the foundations for a free trade agreement are quietly being put in place

By
James Crisp,
BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT
15 June 2020 • 10:26am
David Frost and Michel Barnier, the UK and EU's chief negotiators in Brussels at the start of the trade talks.
David Frost and Michel Barnier, the UK and EU's chief negotiators in Brussels at the start of the trade talks. CREDIT: AFP
It is not in the UK or the EU’s interest to admit as much but a Brext trade deal is there to be done.

Both sides continue to insist it is up to the other to compromise on their red lines first, which plays well to their domestic audiences, but the groundwork is being laid for a free trade agreement to be finalised by October.

Britain and the EU agreed last week to a programme of intensified negotiations of weekly rounds of talks in July. Today’s meeting of Boris Johnson with the three EU presidents is expected to end with a call for renewed impetus in the talks.

UK threats of walking away from the negotiations in June if there was insufficient progress in trade talks have proved empty. For all the mutual recrimination in public, negotiators are continuing their work in sewing up the agreement.

The issue of whether or not the UK will ask for an extension to the transition period was put to bed on Friday. Britain will leave transition at the end of this year, with or without a trade deal.

Forget the rhetoric and propaganda. Neither Britain or the EU want to trade on WTO terms and with tariffs, which would be far less lucrative for both sides than the zero tariff, zero quota trade deal on the table.

Both the UK and the EU took up initial negotiating positions that are so maximalist, it leaves negotiators no option but to compromise.

The last round of negotiations ended, as all the previous had, scuppered on the rocks of the major obstacles of fishing rights and the level playing field.

Britain wants a Norway-style fishing deal, separate from the free trade agreement, with annual negotiations over fishing opportunities based on zonal attachment. Zonal attachment is a scientific method that evaluates where fish are.

The EU wants a long term status quo fishing agreement, folded into the free trade agreement and without annual negotiations, with EU boats having access to UK waters under “existing conditions”. Those conditions are in the Common Fisheries Policy, which uses historic catch patterns to divide fishing opportunities..

In the last round, negotiators were due to discuss other factors such as historic pre-EU fishing rights and the economic impact on coastal communities that could be taken into account when calculating fishing opportunities. This would have been a small but significant step forward but EU fishing nations blocked the talks.

Nevertheless Michel Barnier knows the current EU position can’t hold and that, deal or no deal, the UK will become an independent coastal state on January 1.

He has called for a balanced agreement but warned a fishing deal is a precondition for a trade deal.

A former fisheries minister, Mr Barnier is well aware of the emotive power of the industry but will also know that it is a relatively small sliver of the EU’s economy, as well as the UK’s.



Boris Johnson has vowed that Brexit will mean the UK taking back control of its waters.
Boris Johnson has vowed that Brexit will mean the UK taking back control of its waters. CREDIT: AFP
Mr Barnier told EU ambassadors that the British were trying to use their leverage over fishing to force EU concessions over “rules of origin”.

If Brussels caved, the UK would be able to import products from around the world, assemble them in the UK, then import them to the EU as a “British good” tariff-free. This could turn the UK into a competitive manufacturing hub for the EU, Mr Barnier warned.

The UK fishing industry is also simply not ready to catch all of the new quota it expects to get under the new system. Its major market for fish is the EU, with UK customers preferring fish imported from countries such as Iceland and Norway.

Gradually phasing in new fishing arrangements over a number of years with opportunities calculated on a mix of zonal attachment and other factors could be the solution. This would buy preparation time for the UK and EU industry and allow both negotiators to claim victory.

The EU has called for level playing field guarantees, which are commitments to not undercut the bloc’s standards on labour rights, environment, state aid and tax, to protect its businesses from “unfair” British competition.

Such guarantees are usual in free trade agreements but the UK argues that Brussels’ demands are far stricter than those in EU deals with Canada and Japan. Officials fear they will hinder the UK’s ability to diverge from EU rules.

Brussels argues those stricter demands are justified because of the proximity and interconnectedness of the UK market. It is the EU’s “sovereign right” to set the terms of access for its market, the bloc adds.

After the last round, Mr Barnier signalled the EU had dropped its most egregious demand that EU state aid law, which governs bailouts and mergers, would continue to apply in the UK.

A combination of non-regression clauses along with a system of reviews of both sides regulations would be acceptable to Britain. The EU’s member states, wary of the competition to their industry, will want stronger safeguards than mere dialogue between regulators.

If both sides can agree on a review system which would ensure the level playing field stays relevant over time, a deal could be done.

Both sides hope the “high level meeting” between Boris Johnson and the three EU presidents today will bring fresh political impetus to the trade talks.

That is unlikely with EU leaders preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic. The last minute compromises will come in September or October, which will give the European Parliament time to ratify the trade deal before the end of the year.

The impetus will be provided by the ticking clock, which is not without its dangers. It could mean a very basic agreement.

Both sides also believe the looming deadline works to their advantage, which increases the risk of miscalculation and an accidental no deal exit.

[freddie01] 15/6/2020 19:30

If true Alphorn good news.

[alphorn] 15/6/2020 19:23

Swiss news reporting that a Brexit deal could be there in July.

[grahamite2] 15/6/2020 18:42

Maybe withdrawing the old folks' concession was actually a not so subtle hint?