Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[bargainbob] 04/4/2020 15:32

How you doing Jacko my old foe . Hope life finds you as best it can at the present time.

[jacko07] 04/4/2020 15:32

So all I ask of you Minnie, is stop making out that I buy a stock and fall in love with it.

For the record, Lloyds is a good investment and totally different from Capita who are a dog. As for PFG, they lend to people who Lloyds wouldn't touch with a bargepole.

I am sorry you have lost a small fortune, but I told you Woodford would lead you down the road to penury.

[jacko07] 04/4/2020 15:27

Post 231184 from September 2018

Alphorn. Whether you want Brexit or not will not stop it happening and to be honest I am becoming sick and tired of the incompetent way it is being handled by us and Europe.

I will give you my personal view and my strategy from now. My stock holdings in ISA's will remain, uninvested cash in those ISA's will stay on the sidelines for now.

Stocks held at the close on Friday will all be sold this coming week and I will not be reinvesting anytime soon. I will close all of stock option positions this week and take any losses. Buying back short puts will incur a loss but will be offset somewhat by calls sold, it all goes, I want a clean slate.

It isn't Brexit that has me over worried, I am more concerned about the US and a Wall Street that has gone Gung Ho and is 10% to 25% overvalued. That said, I also believe that the US and China trade war is going to escalate. Another direction to be worried about is the European banks, especially Italy.

Any one of half a dozen things can spark a sell off and I have no intention of risking what might be another crash.

[jacko07] 04/4/2020 15:25

Minnie..I don't know why you keep harping on about my Lloyds investment when I sold out of Lloyds in September 2018. I have traded Lloyds this week, sold PUTS I had in th stock, still hold calls...it's called a straddle, you should check options out, terrific tools in times like these.

Please read and reference the next post.

[alphorn] 04/4/2020 15:18

The big issue with an 80% guarantee is that the banks will drag their feet as they evaluate the risk around the 20%. Speed is essential.


IMO the 80% is not by accident.

[dexdringle] 04/4/2020 15:16

"EssentialInvestor4 Apr '20 - 14:31 - 8838 of 8840

That's not what HMG appear to be saying though...no personal guarantees should
be required for loans under £250k ?"

In which case HMG needs to guarantee 100% of each loan. You need to ask yourself why have HMG set the guarantee at 80% ? Answer: so the banks don't just throw the money at businesses like confetti without a care as to whether the loan was viable. HMG therefore expects banks to still take care who they lend to...which means they expect the banks to refuse some loans.

HMG's behaviour towards the banks over this has been a disgrace. Allowing Joe Public to think the banks are being 'awkward' while at the same time expecting banks to take non standard risks lending depositors money unsecured to distressed businesses is wholly unacceptable.

[alangriffbang] 04/4/2020 15:14

2vdm 1 NHS is posting the same thing on the TW site , I have suggested that they are all filter but people take no notice and then constantly moan about them all , if we filtered all these in one go is would be a very successful news site ,

[alphorn] 04/4/2020 15:09

stoned is also a raving lunatic if he thinks jacko, minerve or myself are the same people.
Highlights his extremely poor judgement - if he has any at all.

[2vdm] 04/4/2020 15:05

Easier to just filter them

[1 nhs] 04/4/2020 14:48

Fitch sleeping on the job.


They should be downgrading each hour .



Deep Global Recession in 2020 as Coronavirus Crisis Escalates
Thu 02 Apr, 2020 - 07:54 ET

Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): Global Economic Outlook - COVID-19 Crisis Update April 2 2020

Fitch Ratings-London-02 April 2020: A deep global recession in 2020 is now Fitch Ratings' baseline forecast according to its latest update of its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) forecasts.

The speed with which the coronavirus pandemic is evolving has necessitated another round of huge cuts to our GDP forecasts. We now expect world economic activity to decline by 1.9% in 2020 with US, eurozone and UK GDP down by 3.3%, 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. China's recovery from the disruption in 1Q20 will be sharply curtailed by the global recession and its annual growth will be below 2%.

"The forecast fall in global GDP for the year as a whole is on a par with the global financial crisis but the immediate hit to activity and jobs in the first half of this year will be worse", said Brian Coulton, Fitch's chief economist.

The spread of the pandemic and the actions necessary to control it mean that we now have to incorporate full-scale lockdowns across Europe and the US (and many other countries) in our baseline forecasts. This was not the assumption used in our March 2020 GEO forecast. There are many moving parts, but we now judge that lockdowns could reduce GDP across the EU and US by 7% to 8%, or 28% to 30% annualised, in 2Q20. This is an unprecedented peacetime one-quarter fall in GDP and is similar to what we now estimate occurred in China in 1Q20.

On the assumption that the health crisis is broadly contained by the second half of the year there should be a decent sequential recovery in activity as lockdowns are removed, some spending is re-profiled from 1H20, inventories are rebuilt and policy stimulus takes effect. But this has to be set against the many factors amplifying the depth of the dislocation, including job losses, capex cuts, commodity price shocks and the rout in financial markets.

"Our baseline forecast does not see GDP reverting to its pre-virus levels until late 2021 in the US and Europe," said Coulton.

The lockdown policies being implemented to control the spread of the virus are having instantaneous and dramatic effects on daily economic activity. Nationwide lockdowns look to be reducing daily activity by about 20% from normal levels. The impact on GDP will depend on how long the lockdowns last. By means of illustration, a two- to three-month crisis with a five-week 'peak stringency' national lockdown period which reduces GDP by 20% a day would translate to a 7% to 8% decline in quarterly GDP (not annualised). This is in line with our latest estimate of the sequential quarter on quarter decline in China's GDP in 1Q20 (which included a full lockdown period of four or five weeks) and we have used this as guide in our baseline forecasts.

The direct impacts of lockdown policies on activity are being amplified through multiple channels. Most noticeable has been the dramatic fallout in the labour market, particularly in the US and Canada, where weekly data for new unemployment benefit claims have smashed all records. Our annual unemployment forecasts for developed countries have been pushed sharply higher across the board and we expect US unemployment to peak at 10% in 2Q20 with 10 million job losses. Companies are also likely to slash capex and consumers will pare back sharply on discretionary spending. This will be exacerbated by the collapse in equity prices.

Rising corporate and emerging market bond yields are tightening global financing conditions and the strengthening of the dollar and falling commodity prices will add further headwinds to emerging market growth. Our 2020 oil price forecast (Brent annual average) has been lowered again to USD35 a barrel. Capital outflows and limited social safety nets are further pressuring economic conditions in emerging markets.

Policymakers are doing all they can to minimise collateral damage from the crisis. The monetary and fiscal policy response has, in many ways, been larger and more rapid than in the midst of the global financial crisis. In addition to interest rate cuts, central bank balance sheets are expanding at a break-neck pace as they flood the financial system with liquidity to mitigate the risk of sharp adverse credit multipliers. These moves have been accompanied by macro-prudential forbearance and the roll-out of hundred-billion dollar sovereign credit guarantees for private-sector borrowers, with the aim of minimising the risk of wide-scale bankruptcies. Employment subsidies have been increased massively in some countries in a bid to minimise redundancies.

Huge fiscal stimulus packages have been announced in many countries worth 10% of GDP in the US and about 5% in Germany and the UK.

"In the midst of the immediate health crisis, higher public spending can play an important part in cushioning the fall in activity but wider growth benefits from policy stimulus are unlikely to be seen until the health crisis subsides," said Coulton.

On the assumption that the health crisis eases in 2H20 we should see quite a marked rebound in growth. The removal of lockdown measures should result in a discrete jump in activity - as now being witnessed in China - and some expenditure could be re-profiled from the first half of the year. Macro policy stimulus should also contribute to a growth recovery. But the scale of the dislocation means that even assuming that the health crisis subsides we do not envisage GDP returning to pre-virus levels until late 2021.

The uncertainties surrounding these forecasts are extremely high and risks are on the downside. In the event that a longer lockdown period is required to contain the virus the damage to 2020 GDP would be bigger. Our analysis suggests a possible additional 2pp decline in GDP on top of our baseline forecast in the US and Europe in the event that the lockdown period is extended to eight weeks and then removed more slowly. This would also delay the return to pre-crisis GDP levels once the crisis is over. A failure to contain the virus would result in even more adverse outcomes.

[1 nhs] 04/4/2020 14:39

0 0 0
Just 3 months ago


076 views|Jan 9, 2020,10:46am EST
Which Countries Will Grow And Which Countries Will Shrink In 2020
Kenneth Rapoza
Kenneth RapozaSenior Contributor
Markets
I write about business and investing in emerging markets.
ARGENTINA PROTESTS
Only three countries out of all the countries the World Bank gave its forecast for this week will ... [+] © 2016 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP
The World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects report for 2020 on Wednesday, and almost everyone is growing—everyone that is except Argentina, Iran and much poorer countries like Haiti.

(Venezuela is no longer on the World Bank’s map.)

Argentina’s economy is projected to contract 1.3%, with Haiti contracting 1.4%. Iran growth is seen flat at the moment, at 0%, though that will surely change as President Trump announced tougher sanctions against the Persian nation on Wednesday. U.S. officials are set to meet with their European counterparts in the days ahead to discuss ways to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table on the broken nuclear power deal.

One takeaway from the annual report is that everyone is growing and there is no recession in sight for at least the next two years, despite the constant hemming and hawing about it in some segments of the financial media.

Overall global growth for 2020 is forecast to reach 2.5%, up from 2.4% estimated in 2019. The World Bank has global growth inching up in 2021 to 2.6% and in 2022 to 2.7%.

Today In: Markets

U.S. GDP is seen coming in at 1.8% this year, then slipping to 1.7% in 2021.

Wall street in New York
The New York Stock Exchange building in lower Manhattan. The World Bank is not forecasting anything ... [+] GETTY
PROMOTED
Meanwhile, emerging markets will have a better year this year than last year, especially in Brazil and Russia, which hope to push their average GDP to 4.1% growth in 2020 from 3.5% last year, and a forecast 4.3% next year.

Not bad.

See: World Bank’s Growth Forecast Lowest Since Financial Crisis — Forbes

Within the BRIC countries, China will grow below 6% growth for the next three years, but that is no surprise. Even Beijing has forecast this now. The World Bank has China growing 5.9% this year

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2020 14:31

That's not what HMG appear to be saying though...no personal guarantees should
be required for loans under £250k ?

[dexdringle] 04/4/2020 14:22

Banks are NOT in the business of taking risk. They lend out DEPOSITORS money to make enough margin to pay the depositor some interest, cover the cost of running the bank and (hopefully) make a profit. They MUST be sure they will be repaid. In full. Otherwise it doesn't work. The margins only allow for a small amount of write offs.

This is why, for loans of any significant size, the bank must be secured. Even for the 20% if the government is covering the other 80%.

1. If a director/owner of a limited company is confident of repaying the loan he will be happy to provide personal collateral. If he has collateral, but he's not happy to put it up, then he's not confident about being able to repay the loan.

2. If a director/owner wants someone to provide 'risk' capital then he needs to go on Dragons Den and give up a share of ownership.

Banks only get a modest interest payment if the loan is repaid successfully. They do not partake in the success of the business by owning a stake. But the bank loses their entire capital if the loan fails.

[2vdm] 04/4/2020 14:11

Well I'm prepared to take a gamble and have added more at this level. I may have to wait 12-18 months, but it will go back eventually. Lot's of panic and concern out there.

[minerve 2] 04/4/2020 14:01

To add:

Seeing as Lloyds is on a forward PE of 5.1 and Capita 2.3 one could argue Lloyds has still got much further to fall.

Good luck grandad.

[minerve 2] 04/4/2020 13:58

Jacko

Lloyds Banking Group PLC Rel UKX (14 td) -24.9%
Capita Rel UKX (14 td) -18.0%

[royston6] 04/4/2020 13:38

Very interesting post jacko.

The EU aren't going to be swift in assisting Italy or Spain, that won't happen. Christine Legarde is a prime example of the EU elites, these people who elect each other into high places are all part of a system that has failed the people miserably.

Many of the 27 must be watching these events with amazement, far from being better together, Merkel, Legarde and Macron and many others within the EU are telling the Italians and the Spanish, you are on your own.

You have to ask yourself, why would the people of Scotland want to re-join the EU. They would be as mad as the SNP already are, to even consider leaving the union they are already part of.

[alphorn] 04/4/2020 13:31

stoned would make the village idiot proud. Lol