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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Lindsell Train Investment Trust Plc LSE:LTI London Ordinary Share GB0031977944 ORD 75P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +£20.00 +1.09% £1,847.50 £1,825.00 £1,870.00 £1,885.00 £1,870.00 £1,885.00 174 16:35:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 6.5 5.3 0.0 - 406.45

Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

Showing 101 to 124 of 125 messages
Chat Pages: 5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
18/5/2019
19:06
Sorry guys. This mentally retarded patient needs help. Follows me everywhere and posts lies. Filter the muppet.
greatballsoffire451
18/5/2019
09:48
terry smith closes at its highs yesterday. own lots of his equity fund
greatballsoffire451
14/5/2019
09:19
Thanks @topvest. I think we mostly agree, but I can't help prodding :) Noticed LTI ongoing charge is 2.9% according to HL, whilst AMC is only 0.65% - must be performance fee? And divi only 1.26%, tho in large part due to share price!
spectoacc
14/5/2019
09:00
I certainly agree with your thoughts that its difficult to out-perform for ever. So few investment managers have. Even Warren Buffett's stock picking skills these days are quite poor...Insurance is where he made most of his fortune. Anthony Bolton, although before my time mostly, has one of the finest records in the UK. Nick Train and Terry Smith are probably about the best fund managers in the UK and don't make many mistakes. Nick Train is picking a portfolio that is generating dividend growth of c8-9% per annum, so I think he's investing in fine businesses that are certainly better than bond proxies. I agree with you though that the valuation tailwind, will surely become a headwind at some point and then life for LTL will get a tad more tricky.
topvest
14/5/2019
08:21
Bolton had a shocker at FCSS, Woodford-style hubris and ignorance. He managed to invest in several total cons (think Northwest Bio for Woodford). Dale Nicholls turned it around (though I accept Bolton had already made some difficult decisions by then) & like you, I punted it around then & did well. SSON, ignoring the arrogant name, has admittedly done better than FEET. FEET has about a third in India so who knows - might win out, but in nearly 5 years (5 years! Thought 3 at most) it's done not nearly enough, with an ongoing charge (according to HL) of 1.75% p.a. Bottom line - no manager outperforms indefinitely, and those who outperform the most suffer the biggest falls. My concern about the Train/Lindsell/Smith strategy is: 1. The bond proxy trade can't last forever; and 2. Those bond proxies they bought, and did so well on, are now hugely highly valued.
spectoacc
14/5/2019
08:02
My thoughts. I don't think Anthony Bolton ever had a particularly bad record. Stellar performance at Fidelity except for a volatile patch on FCSS which, incidentally, has out-performed following his retirement using his methods. I've at least doubled my money at FCSS. Markets don't always go your way in short time periods. Woodford is totally different as a two year old could run a better portfolio - he's over-confident in the wrong stocks which is a dangerous combination. Train and Smith are excellent long-term performers and will stand the test of time. FEET has been disappointing, but no permanent loss of capital.
topvest
14/5/2019
07:48
"Past performance" etc - spending a long time analysing Woodford's collapse, as I once did with Bolton's, as one day I expect to with Smith & Train ;) (Smith likely to go first IMO - FEET has almost been his FCSS). To be fair to Train/Lindsell, they acknowledge that things may not always be so rosy, and not in a Woodford hubristic "best opportunity in 30 years" way.
spectoacc
13/5/2019
20:16
Some sense has returned to this stock today. The premium of late has been unsustainable and totally bonkers.
greatballsoffire451
13/5/2019
20:12
Absolutely. Reading a book on T Rowe Price at the moment, the legendary US growth investor who died in the 80s. He sold his firm for US$2m or so when he retired. Its now managing over US$1 trillion and valued at US$20bn on a PE of 14. T Rowe Price clearly lived on using the founders principles. Lindsell Train is a small investment manager, but has the potential to grow significantly. As to the valuation, I do not know. It's clearly valued highly at the moment and subject to volatility (as today), but it's a growth stock. I have certainly invested wisely a decade or so ago, but was I wrong banking profits on 75% of the shares? Yes...probably should have held more for longer, but I'm too much of a value investor.
topvest
13/5/2019
17:03
If Train & Smiths strategy fails there's not much hope for the rest of them.
henryatkin
13/5/2019
15:15
@topvest I'm struggling to resist a "Has the LT business just fallen about 15%" post :) :) Quality stock, but one in a bubble I say ;) Question is, at what price is it a long..
spectoacc
10/5/2019
21:02
The business has internal candidates being primed to takeover from Nick Train in due course and at least one of these has a significant holding. It might not be the same, but the portfolio probably won't need changing much and can "run-off' over 20 years or so. I personally think, Lindsell Train Limited could eventually make £100m of profit per year on £200m of turnover. Fundsmith is close to that and Marathan Asset Management also. That's the reason that this is so highly valued. 24% of that in dividends is £24m a year. I was convinced myself that this was way overvalued, but I'm not so sure. It's certainly a quality stock.
topvest
10/5/2019
07:24
@topvest - agree re tech! The bubble that keeps on inflating. I gather Uber's prospectus acknowledges that there's 1. No profit in sight and 2. That they may never make a profit. Pininterest, Lyft, Tesla.. The list goes on. Will be quite a few managers looking forward to the day when Train's (& Smith's) strategy starts to fail.. ;)
spectoacc
09/5/2019
22:12
The thing you're not factoring in is that Nick Train is the business. If and when he retires it will be worth a fraction of its current value. Also can't see how the value could ever be realised, whether through an IPO or takeover. For these reasons I certainly wouldn't value it any more highly than the wider asset management sector.
riverman77
09/5/2019
21:28
Agreed - most diversified IMs are on a P/E of c10, some are on 15 (like Polar Capital). Impax is on 18. I'm not saying its cheap (remember that I reduced my holding this week)... far from it. Then again Amazon is on a P/E of over 60 and will probably never pay a dividend, but everyone is loading up on ridiculous FANG and disruptor businesses on crazy valuations. What is more stupid! Of course, I am biased as Investment Management seems to me to be one of the best businesses in the world. If you are really good then a ROCE of > 50% and net operating profits of > 50% is achievable. Lindsell Train's ROCE is going to be close to 100% in 2019...beat that! Valuation is largely subjective. For what it's worth, I would be inclined to value Lindsell Train Limited on a P/E of at least 15. I think that the directors' valuation of under 10 is very cautious versus what the business would be valued at if it listed tomorrow. The Lindsell Train's and Fundsmith's of this world are simply better than most. Nick Train is one of the world's best for doing absolutely nothing....which is very difficult to do when you are a fund manager!
topvest
09/5/2019
20:33
@topvest - it's largely uninvestable and unrealisable tho. Look at the p/e's the listed asset managers are on - certainly not 20 - and now value a one-trick one, with managers not that many years off retirement age (tho I note they're not the only managers - and have been highly successful! And as you say, may want to keep going). However - who's to say the LT & Fundsmith method will still be as successful in say 5 years time? Buffett's just bought into Amazon :) They've done amazingly well buying (and sitting on) bond proxies, but the IC recently had an interesting piece on what happens if/when (it's when) these very highly-rated co's eventually slip up. To pick eg DGE, which they all hold, the p/e is 27 and yield 2%. Market cap £77bn. ULVR, which they also all hold in size, is p/e 22, yield 3%, mkt cap £122bn. Do they grow forever? Maybe, but likely not. (The IC's argument was more nuanced, and actually maybe it was in MoneyWeek - "When they're doing well, there's huge fund flows into the strategy, pushing up the prices of the stocks to a point where any disappointment has a big effect. Later, the money starts to flow back out again". Or words to that effect). But again, main point - when is that LT value realised, or is the only value the cut of the profits? £62m starts to seem about right. No manager - even Buffett - is successful indefinitely. (Actually - maybe Soros, but he could change strategy with a change in wind direction). And - what changed today to add 7%? Isn't that alone an indication of the bubbly nature of LTI?
spectoacc
09/5/2019
20:22
This is all about what 24% of Lindsell Train Limited is actually worth. Market cap suggests its worth about £250m and the rest of the portfolio about £100m, rough numbers. Directors had it in at £62m last year. I think the directors' valuation is very cautious and understated as the investment philosophy could continue for a long time. Let's face it Nick Train doesn't have to do a lot other than read (which he enjoys) and buy something every 2/3 years, so he could go on for another 20 years+. Market suggests 4x the directors' valuation which is clearly stretching it a tad, but is it actually? - see below. Answer is probably somewhere in between. Nevertheless, Lindsell Train and Fundsmith are the best investment managers in the UK and have a highly distinctive product.. Lindsell Train also has scope to manage a lot more than it currently does. The Lindsell Train Limited year end is January and so we should see their results in a month or so. Last year they made a profit after tax of c£30m on c£60m of turnover. This year/sometime soon I suspect they will make a profit of c£50m. Lets look at a valuation of 24% * £50m * P/E of 20 (reflecting a high growth business) = £240m. BINGO that gives you the current share price! The market is basically valuing Lindsell Train Limited as a high growth business. The directors value it using a very conservative methodology of an average of 1.5% of AUM (should be 3% in my view) and a P/E ratio of 11.8. This is definitely low for such a wonderful business franchise.
topvest
09/5/2019
19:59
@DrRobin - that's a fair point, I should have said "reported" NAV. Undoubtedly clear that LTI's holdings didn't jump by 7% today tho! In fact, a quick glance at the top 5: 1. LT Ltd (obviously, and c.45% of the IT) 2. DGE 3. LSE 4. AG Barr 5. ULVR Nos.2-5 all fell today.
spectoacc
09/5/2019
16:39
SpectroAcc - The problem is that the NAV announced today was calculated on 3rd May, the previous NAV announced on 1st May was calculated on 26th April. Therefore you can't say the NAV has gone down by £2 and the shares climb £140, a lot could have happened in 6 days. The NAV doesn't seem very reliable for this investment trust. There are probably other reasons why this is going up. The price curve for LTI is roughly in step with FGT (run by Lindsell Train), but that is down 0.8% today. FGT follows the NAV very well, so it is not LTI's interest in FGT which has pushed the price back up, unless it is rocketing tomorrow?
drrobin
09/5/2019
16:31
It's weird, for sure - but the inability to short may have something to do with it. But I don't see why LTI don't issue more shares - their investments are plenty liquid enough (ex the management co), and it'd make the management co stake a smaller % of the fund, making it less opaque overall. Many ITs have discount & premium control - if there's one that needs it, it's LTI. Edit - well done @steve, fantastic ride you've had.
spectoacc
09/5/2019
16:27
Held nearly 10 years but let my last ones go this afternoon in this second spike of the day. Wonder who is buying, they’re persistent that’s for sure. I have no idea whether common sense will prevail or if something else is afoot.
steve3sandal
09/5/2019
16:15
NAV drops £2, shares climb £140 - glad I'm not short :) :)
spectoacc
08/5/2019
13:36
I'd short it if I could, but is unborrowable everywhere I tried.
spectoacc
08/5/2019
12:01
This has 12 bagged since I started this thread. Happy Days! I will have to admit to having sold 75% of my original holding though on the way. Still more than happy to keep a holding though and will never sell out completely.
topvest
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