Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[giltedge1] 01/8/2024 08:33

LSEG up 3% on results SDR down 6%, same story last few years good performers nullified by down performers. Rathbones announced positive AUM 6 months, asset mgt a side business so can be done.

[fabius1] 30/7/2024 09:39

Spec - Rant? I think you politely scratched the surface of the routine game of chicken. I think we know that bubbles beget bubbles but it's probably helpful to remind ourselves that we are talking about an industry that has more than a vested interest in blowing bubbles. It's interesting to reflect on the analogy of the so called magician whose real skill lies in beguiling the audience. It's a time honoured contract where we momentarily and willingly suspend belief before returning back to business. What is of greater concern is the bubble snorters who fail to recognise that tricks can play the mind :).

[cynicalsteve] 30/7/2024 08:58

We need a new ETF: FTSE100 excluding Lindsell Train holdings. I would buy it.

[porsche1945] 30/7/2024 08:34

Lindsell turning into Woodford, his big holdings already cut in half could be cut in half again in oncoming recession. 5.30pc in US T Bills zero risk, why bother with U.K. high risk dross.

[flyer61] 30/7/2024 07:50

'lapping' the inventory.....nice touch with the Olympics going on....just a shame it is us being lapped...another new RNS wordage to go in the notebook.

[essentialinvestor] 30/7/2024 07:42

I was a big supporter of DGE at one point, but the growth case looks in tatters atm. Mentioned the FY may be dire and it looks that way.

[spectoacc] 30/7/2024 07:35

Another 8% off DGE, 6% of SGE this morning on results.

Not sure how many years I've been saying it, but: Great co's, pity about the valuations.

Mr Train doesn't much care for valuations. But if it's top line growth he cares about, he ought to still be concerned.

At some point, all of them should have adjusted to the post-ZIRP, end-of-the-bond-proxy world, and be good value again. Not sure we're there yet.

Pains me when Train talks about things having risen 10-fold in say 10 years, and that they can do it again in the next 10. Not many can, it's orders of magnitude and there's only so many over-priced spirits (for eg) you can hawk to emerging markets & the US before hawking 10x as many becomes simply unfeasible.

I'd say the same about the preposterous tech bubble, particularly Nvidia. $3.6trn market cap, really? James Anderson has called a "10-15% chance" of it getting to $50trn in 10 years. $50trn!!! It's just totally mad, makes Train look like a genius. $3.6trn is entirely unjustifiable, but $50trn would be a multiple of current US GDP. For a single co's market cap. Or on a p/e of say 20, required $2.5trn of post-tax profits annually.

Even the extraordinarily successful & profitable Apple struggles to make $100bn. Yet the spending to get to NVID's profits comes from the big techs buying its chips.

Apologies for rant. Some things just seem so "obvious", even if they take years to play out. Woodford was one, Train was another, Nvidia is now.

[giltedge1] 29/7/2024 21:24

Heineken & Universal Music both down 10% after results, both showed organic growth to be fair & good long term holds but not helping funds outflow which has been main cause of the LTI price drop. Tomorrow biggest Train holding announcing DGE tin hats or celebrations?.

[flyer61] 26/7/2024 06:34

Agreed Spec....the market obviously expected much better.

[spectoacc] 25/7/2024 17:43

All the yoof - all - seem to vape. Has opened up a whole new market.

(Universal is on the subscription slow-down).

[flyer61] 25/7/2024 16:53

it is a very good question Spec....I ask myself daily!

Universal Music is the young tyros big idea as I understand it. The market has really packed a sad today. I'm trying to ascertain why.

One bright spot ULVR....

Really glad I have been topping up my tobacco stocks of late though....Vaping is becoming as popular as smoking was 50 years ago.

[spectoacc] 25/7/2024 15:27

Noticed the IC's "New 52 week lows" contained two Train stocks (BRBY; DGE) in the top 4, the lamentable INOV (Woodford's WPCT), & SQZ, which I happen to have bought too soon this week.


"I'm also suspicious of any outperforming managers - nothing lasts for ever, as Anthony Bolton so memorably demonstrated (FCSS), and as Neil Woodford may be in the process of proving! The sort of bond proxy long term winners that have done stupendously for the likes of Terry Smith & Lindsell Train won't do well forever."


Said that in 2017, after which the price of LTI went up perhaps 70%, to that insane c.80% premium, so was a bit early there too.

Not sure I'd be too concerned if I was in "yesterday's man" Train's FGT - most of the holdings will come good, it's just valuations that got stretched (tho recall his very recent AI nonsense, when ramping SGE/RELX etc).

But LTI, with the L-T Ltd stake - not so sure. At what point do they stop bleeding AUM? Ever?

Is the discount enough for that yet, bearing in mind performance?

Rhetorical, not thinking of buying. Been an LTI shareholder twice, neither time for very long.

[cynicalsteve] 25/7/2024 10:39

Recent purchase Universal Music down over 20% today, how much more damage can LTs reputation take?

[cc2014] 24/7/2024 17:40

Lvmh results not helping probably?

[flyer61] 24/7/2024 16:26

The near low of the day £805.58, was actually a small purchase by me.

NAV still around the £1000 mark.

[spectoacc] 23/7/2024 15:02

I've got Level 3, tells me Train is taking a sh*t and going to wipe his rear with some L-T Ltd paper taken from LTI.

(L2 looks very thin, per usual, nothing obvious).

[apollocreed1] 22/7/2024 16:14

@giltedge1- very insightful observation!

[giltedge1] 22/7/2024 15:42

An update on our Japanese expert Michael Lindsell, 5 years Citywire 174/174, yes that's right couldn't beat one other fund. 3 years a bit of outperformance 151/158 beat 7, but couldn't keep that momentum up, 1 year 171/174, back to usual form. Citywire says over 5 years -20%, factsheet +15%. & of course we must compare to index Topix +75%, so a -95% underperformance.

[giltedge1] 21/7/2024 13:38

Hello RajK James Bullock is in charge of Global fund, his decision to keep large holding in Dge & Lse I questioned this at last annual meeting said global fund should exit UK shares & focus on US winners like Fico. Got some waffle about concentration rules on foreign holdings, I think 5% was mentioned. As not knowing rules, did not question does anyone know?. To give youngsters their due did add Fico & Experian, but generally overall Global Fund NT way.

[flyer61] 18/7/2024 10:47

All businesses are doing this RajK.....data is everything in business these days. I get an earnings yield of 6% feels cheap but there are very clear reasons why Diageo is trading where it is. I am not convinced on NT's thesis here.

Maybe Diageo will get taken out.....

[raj k] 18/7/2024 10:34

Diageo is using AI to better understand “real behaviour, not unintended”, which it is using to drive innovation. Not a AI winner in the traditional sense but using AI to understand thier customer behaviour better.

[flyer61] 18/7/2024 10:25

I'm lost for words.....Diageo is an AI winner.....Wind up vote anyone?

[raj k] 18/7/2024 09:17

I know some people just dont like Nick Train anymore given that it seems he has hung on to some companies like Unilever, Diageo, Pearson and now Burberry, however the youngsters within seem to hav einfluenced some good decision making like the purchase of Experian, FICO in the global equity mandate, UMG etc.

Maybe Nick and Co should allow the youngsters to run the show now. James Bullock seems quite capable.

[giltedge1] 18/7/2024 07:05

AJ Bell announced today AUM up 50% yoy admittedly from a lowish base, Money for old rope if you know how. Made a good profit on HL takeover, May transfer to AJB. (to offset my LTI paper loss!).