Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[flyer61] 30/5/2024 07:58

Indeed...heading to high yield status. Take a look at the debt....

One in every fourteen pounds Mr Train has invested across his funds is invested in DGE.

[essentialinvestor] 30/5/2024 07:26

DGE is looking ill.

[cc2014] 29/5/2024 08:48

Read over to LTI I guess.

Over five years, FGT is second bottom in the Association of Investment Companies’ 19-strong UK equity income sector, having gained only 6% compared with 36% from the FTSE All-Share.

A classic situation. Punters bailing when performance bad.
Creates an opportunity when Mr Train is back in favour. Timing that is another matter.

[flyer61] 28/5/2024 10:13

Having looked back at the year end for LTL I reckon LTIT has received in it's last financial year between £9-£9.5 Million of dividend from LTL.

Be interesting to see what the board do as this FY will be materially less than this. Particularly if Mr T and Mr L hike their salaries back up.

[flyer61] 28/5/2024 10:10

All good points Spec.

I sometimes wonder whether I should just keep buying MSFT and do nothing else. In my books it can double profits from here and become a mega trillion market cap stock.

I have HL in my 5 shares for the annual FT competition and had put it down as a takeover target. Occasionally I do get it right!!

The only good news here is that the LTL stake continues it's relentless shrinkage as a % of assets.

Probably why the share price has gently perked up.

Over to the Chairman now to convince me he has all shareholders interests at heart.

[spectoacc] 28/5/2024 05:57

It should indeed - and unlikely to be pretty, even with the big FTSE rally.

Everything L-T is under the control of Mr T & Mr L IMO. But perhaps they'll surprise us.


Edit - FGT RNS. Fund management is a proper racket.

"Your Board takes the recent performance record of the Company's portfolio extremely seriously, and shares the Portfolio Manager's and, no doubt, Shareholders' disappointment with recent results. We continue to hold the Portfolio Manager to account for the Company's performance and support the evolution of the companies and themes represented in the portfolio. We believe the companies we own have the capacity to deliver both attractive returns and outperformance that Shareholders should expect."

ie Absolutely no change. Train then talks his usual good game in a long explanation, the 3rd year at least of those.

When the going's good - they pick your pocket. When the going's bad -they pick your pocket.


"A smart shareholder asked me recently which of your holdings really has the potential to double or treble profits over the next decade or more and, as a result, become a much bigger market capitalized company and higher share price? My answer was that amongst the large-cap holdings it is readily conceivable that RELX and Sage have truly transformative profit potential ahead. And of our mid and smaller capped holdings, Fever-Tree, Hargreaves Lansdown and Rightmove have clear roadmaps to becoming much bigger businesses, if, of course, they can execute on their opportunities."

So, um, why not just buy RELX, SGE, FEVR, HL, & RMV? Probably because several other picks that he'd previoiusly been so keen on - PZC, PSON, BRBY, BAG - really haven't done too well.

Not sure on price paid for HL but if it leaves the market, be (academically) interesting to see where the money goes.

[flyer61] 27/5/2024 19:07

Before I quit here Spec I want to hear from the Chairman. If it is nothing to see, then I will quietly exit stage left and do something else.

Next FUM update should be interesting...

[spectoacc] 25/5/2024 16:42

LTI's held up well hasn't it - I see FGT's on an 8% discount, dare I say that looks the pick if you still believe in Train's stock-picking skills (someone must do - albeit it's down over 1, 3, and 5 years).

Can't help pointing out what I've been saying for years - why not just buy RELX, LSEG, EXPN, SGE, DGE, and ULVR - you'd own pushing 2/3rds of it without the 0.63% Ongoing Charge. Isn't as if Train ever changes anything.

[flyer61] 20/5/2024 08:31

Interesting to note that the billion pound loss of assets (doesn't sound much when you say it quickly) under management was reported after the year ends for both LTL and LTIT. When the results are reported for both year ends they will not be an accurate reflexion of where LTL's business has moved to.

The Sp seems to have brushed it off, however, the market has been very bouyant of late.

[essentialinvestor] 16/5/2024 13:43

With the recent CFO replacement, is their a guidance cut on the way for DGE..

[essentialinvestor] 16/5/2024 13:28

FGT buying back extraordinary amounts on the daily.

[spectoacc] 16/5/2024 13:00

SGE a good business IMO. But as so often, and like with Train's bond proxy picks, the problem is valuation.

Interesting seeing such large moves in large-caps tho - 20% in a day for a couple lately.

[giltedge1] 16/5/2024 09:20

Sage down 10% today, results okay but high expectations. Yesterday Experian up 8%, but Burbery down same amount. Been like this last few years good gains nullified by losses on others.

[giltedge1] 15/5/2024 11:48

There is no wind up provision, best to Hope for is a NT/ML buyout, so they can control LT & pay whatever salaries they want. Net cost to them assuming sell listed shares about £70m. They are worth £500m each so petty cash to them. If they were to buyout, probably just after Annual Results in June.

[flyer61] 14/5/2024 16:59

Not 100 per cent sure CC2014, however would be surprised if there is a continuation vote, it’s never been mentioned before.

The ‘families̵7; have a fair wallop here, unlike the BOD.

Wonder what the articles of association say….

[cc2014] 14/5/2024 14:56

It's just occurred to me. Is there a mechanism to force a wind-up? i.e. is there a continuation vote at some point in the future?

Also there's the question of whether Lindsell, Train and their various trust funds own enough to block it or at least enough to not make it clear what the outcome of the vote would be.

[flyer61] 14/5/2024 14:38

Good spot Spec. I have valued the tradable equity at market price and really they should have the ‘fowl’ L and T factor applied…...another £11M off so at current share price assuming the fowl factor means share price has LTL at £35M.

Personally, want this wound up…

[spectoacc] 14/5/2024 13:55

Poultry? Chicken sh*t? ;) (*Paltry).

But hold on, are you accounting for the discount on the listed holdings? ie Train's (lately) poor stock-picking? That discount, clearly seen at FGT, is 8% (zero holding in L-T Ltd).

You may be accounting for that already, but if you're not, what's the L-T Ltd valuation taking the rest of LTI at 8% discount?

[flyer61] 14/5/2024 13:46

Playing about with FM values I’ve been looking at publicly listed FM Mkt Caps versus AUM. I’ve gone down this route as ‘real profits’ at LTL are determined by how much Mr’s Train and Lindsell decide to pay themselves. Which conflates with the nominal profit method used for our valuation and what really comes out the end to pay the dividends from LTL. Private companies are great when you have control, LTI doesn’t have any control of LTL, in fact it could be worse if the LTL BOD turn out to be patsies. Throw in LTL wants to pay a small number of it’s staff mega bucks and valuing LTL within the context of LTI gets more and more difficult.

Premier Miton 10.7B AUM Mkt Cap £117M
CLIG £8B Mkt Cap £181M

Either of these two Companies valuations on a straight AUM vs Mkt Cap gives our stake in LT a value of

Vs PMI £37M and vs CLIG £77M

If we take an old boys FM outfit like Liontrust which has had plenty of issues around
AUM loss and poor stewardship then I get a valuation of £58M.

Present share price basically says the FM business is worth the cash on the balance sheet at LTL and that’s it. Surely our stake has to be worth more than a poultry £24M….ergo the share price has a lot of bad news in it…

[flyer61] 13/5/2024 12:18

Yes my thoughts as well….

[steve3sandal1] 13/5/2024 11:51

£200/250m iirc.
Witan still undergoing a strategic review, no decision yet so any LT impact probably not yet in LT AUM figures.

[flyer61] 13/5/2024 11:05

Witan asset loss I made circa £200M. Do others have a figure?

[steve3sandal1] 13/5/2024 08:40

I agree it's definitely a segregated mandate loss. Unit Trusts just leaking investors, Add FGT buying back it's altogether £100M here another £100M there and obviously dire but not a blockbuster liquidation. It's not great when you own 20 stocks and are selling to meet redemptions. Absence of a material AUM loss RNS is poor. No sign yet of the Board showing any independence. Chairman's commentary may be pivotal for me.

[flyer61] 13/5/2024 08:40

No RNS….LTL private Company.

[giltedge1] 13/5/2024 07:54

Presume £1B fall in AUM a US mandate loss, can,t imagine UK investors pulling that amount in 1 month from Global/UK. Shouldn't
there have been a RNS?, I am sure a mandate gain would have been reported. Problem I have is Relx,Sage,Exp,Lseg over 20% in some cases, had a great 2023 but funds NAV barely nudged yoy.
So for 2024 unlikely a repeat. We also have Witan mandate loss, to come looks line Year end AUM £12B if lucky. As I have mentioned other competitors are gaining AUM in comparison. Can,t fault quality of portfolio but seems UK investors are not going to wait for turn around & vote with their feet.