Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[riskvsreward] 12/5/2024 11:01

@Spec, fair point and it is also Train’s thesis about Lseg and Rel. however, over one to 3 years, rel has far far outperformed Lseg but unfortunately he has far far less conviction in rel than in Lseg.

[spectoacc] 12/5/2024 10:22

@riskv - agree re ratings, but LSEG is much more a data business now - if the LSE fades, it won't affect LSEG too much. So IMO is one of the better ones.

@Raj K - in a word, PSON. Train doesn't "manage" in the sense you'd expect, which works if you're Buffett, but I'd argue hasn't worked for the past 5 years here.

But again - everything has it's price, and I've twice been an LTI shareholder despite having posted negatively on them for the past 6 years. Sold again both times mind, & it really needs a turn in AUM.

[riskvsreward] 12/5/2024 07:57

The problem to me is that they are paying for the past growth with very high price, and high conviction to be far far overweighted in such companies. Good examples are the Lseg at 12% weighting which is now suffering from very few new listings and established listings delisting to other markets like bhp. Unilever is another example that is not growing coupled with bad management. The plus side is that lti is at least now more fairly priced or can be even said cheap. And it also has some good holdings like Experian and relx.

[raj k] 12/5/2024 07:25

I guess the reason we pay them to manage that portfolio is that they should be monitoring the business etc to make sure their operational performance keeps on heading in the right direction and to discern any hiccups as a true risk or just noise.

With rightmove they still have a huge market share and high margins. Smithson sold out of rightmove becuase they were concerned by the takeover of onthemarket by a US company who wants to muscle in to this area and believes the margin of 70% that rightmove enjoy should really only be 40% so a price war might be looming that will take away RMV share.. Interesting LT still continue to build their position in Rightmove.

My one concern about LT is they might be quick enough to let go of a failing company, however if enough winners are there then it could be siad it doesn't matter if their optimism in any one company extentds longer than it should.

[spectoacc] 12/5/2024 06:44

They've always been single approach investors, worked brilliantly during the bond proxy years, been predictably naff since.

Can't see why it won't continue to be naff, tbh. You chose FICO, Experian, UMG, I'd choose PZC, RMV (the last pick I think?), FEVR.

The FGT Top 10 - being much less skewed by the L-T Ltd business in LTI:

RELX
LSEG
EXPN
SGE
DGE
ULVR
Mondelez
BRBY (oops)
SDFR (oops)
Heineken


Generally speaking, I've no problem with that portfolio, but why pay 0.6% pa for it when I could buy direct (with a possible divi withholding tax issue to deal with on two). It's hardly going to change much.

Performance over 5yrs ex divi is -2.3%, over 3 years is -6%, over a year is -4.8%.

Sorry to be always banging the same drum, but can't be a surprise that L-T Ltd are losing mandates & AUM, particularly in a market where all are.

At the right discount, LTI or FGT I'd be (& was twice) fine with.

But uber investors they are not.

[raj k] 12/5/2024 05:59

You have to really hold your nerve here. I do believe in the way LT invests and im encouraged that they have picked some good companies in the last few years, FICO, Experian and now UMG which i believe they have invested in LTI aswell albeit a small position. I have concerns around unilever and diageo , which are junk food and alcohol and the shift to healthier eating patterns and less consumption of alcohol. How much growth can there be with these companies?

I just hope LT dont crack becuase of the pressures and stick to good investing principles.

[flyer61] 10/5/2024 18:02

My calc ….disc to new NAV is 18 per cent.

[flyer61] 10/5/2024 17:49

The other worry, as if there aren’t enough, is what deals are being cut to keep mandates…

[flyer61] 10/5/2024 17:46

Has to be significant mandate losses…

[giltedge1] 10/5/2024 16:25

Actually decline worse % than appears as FGT shareholders cannot withdraw funds.

[giltedge1] 10/5/2024 14:13

I was quite shocked AUM went from £15.2B to £14.3B in a month in a rising market. Hate to see in a falling market!. Seems like any rise in funds NAV leads to investors exiting. In comparison HL for whom fund mgt is a sideline went up almost
20% FUM YOY 31/3.

[spectoacc] 10/5/2024 13:31

Pre- or post-Witan mandate loss? If it's pre, agree it's looking "difficult".

[flyer61] 10/5/2024 10:33

Todays RNS shows the butchering of AUM continues….in fact it seems to be accelerating…

[gemlotte55] 10/5/2024 08:03

Very slow here, thought these would have participated in market rally!

[flyer61] 07/5/2024 18:18

Surely NAV must have been given a shot after the last few market days.....or are the mandate losses going to undo it all....

[flyer61] 07/5/2024 10:13

There are only 200000 shares in issue so the price is £818 (Eight hundred and eighteen pounds) per

[orinocor] 07/5/2024 08:37

ii are making the same mistake.

ii want £818
A J Bell want £811.5

It's possible Im wrong.

ii prices are rubbish this morning.

[orinocor] 07/5/2024 08:29

Huh. AJ BELL are quoting me a price based on the share price being £818. The shares are 818p are they not?

[flyer61] 03/5/2024 15:13

Basically you are correct, however it is cash! that they have. So if we got our hands on the cash that would be our present share price with the FM business thrown in for free.

This feels like a dog and am just waiting for the BOD to confirm for me with their bark. Their bark should reveal the direction of travel....

Buy back (You can't count Mr Lindsell's purchases albeit they feel like a buyback of sorts) quarterly dividend, share split. Selling the stake in LTL to 'interested parties'. There are a long list of things I am waiting to hear about....

Have a good weekend.

[raj k] 03/5/2024 14:40

Can the more knowledgable here confirm that im getting this correct.

In the last half yearly report in Appendix 1 it gives a finacial summary of Lindsell Train Limited. Under the balance sheet part of the table it shows

Fixed Assets 75

Investments 62,113

Current Assets (Inc cash at bank)
50,674

Liabilities (12,311) ———;——

Net Assets 100,551

Does that mean that 24% of that 100 million belongs to us shareholder of the Lindsell investment Trust. Out of interest the line item labelled investments, is that the management companies own investments.

It may have been said before but if that is true and we take the value of all the listed holdings and the percentage of assets that belong to LTIT that is near to the current market cap, effectively meaning the fund management business is being obtained for next to nothing?

[flyer61] 01/5/2024 09:09

It's not that good andyadvfn1 !! It is also disappointing that the new Chairman has not come out with any ideas for closing the share price to NAV.

[andyadvfn1] 01/5/2024 08:59

Have been away, checking in on performance for first time in over a year. very very disappointing.

[giltedge1] 25/4/2024 11:34

Yes ULVR up today, looked a bit cheap. But SDR & DGE down has been the problem last few years good gains wiped out by fallers. Of the portfolio HL £7.50 & BURB £ 1148 (not held by LTI, but by Funds) look the two most beaten up, so more likely to rise.

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2024 10:01

ULVR may be towards the beginning of a nice re-rating. DGE looks more problematic atm.

Can NT deliver outperformance in a post ZIRP environment is the question.

[giltedge1] 24/4/2024 14:33

ABDN & Jupiter have announced increase in AUM YOY March 24, both considered poorly managed in the city. We have gone from 18.5B to 15.3B -18% in comparison!. So -3B, there is some market gain in there, so assume -4B withdrawn by clients. Can't see this changing any time soon, with Witan AUM going soon. ML Japanese fund lamentable, any normal employee would have been sacked, but as an 'owner' has kept his position, anyway not long till all funds drained out I think down 50% at half year. I have been 'fire fighting', got out of ULVR (held for 10 years) at £40, DGE £30, SDR £ 4.20, & FGT £8.50, all good profits, left with LTI down 20%, although sold some at £1500 in the good old days. Can't quite pin down main reasons for poor performance last 5 years, not selling at highs, Paypal $200 was a give me, HL at £22, & ULVR up to £ 50, come to mind, selling Pearson at the time was turning around. Another reason Including UK shares, quite a good percentage in the Global Fund seems odd, as reason for Investors going into Global Fund is diversification from UK. Anyway deciding what to do with LTI is hard to take a loss, but can see AUM continuing the decline & dividend cut. All we hear is need to raise salaries so staff won't leave. What so if not, they can underperform elsewhere?. Any thoughts of turnaround, or moving elsewhere as fully cashed up.