Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[flyer61] 06/6/2024 11:25

Mark Dampier....there's another bloke you would want to be wary of....

[essentialinvestor] 06/6/2024 11:04

"Neil Woodford: The man who can't stop making money.."


The above article has not aged so well, eh.

[essentialinvestor] 06/6/2024 11:02

Woodford as part of EDIN was a good manger, an unconstrained Woodford out on his own... Well we know how that ended.

[flyer61] 06/6/2024 10:45

Yep Train is no Woodford. I like the underlying Companies however coming out of the Zero Interest rate era they were found to be expensive.

[riskvsreward] 06/6/2024 10:22

It is very unfair to compare Train to Woodford, despite his poor performance over the last few years. Woodford has invested in mostly worthless companies, while Train’s portfolio are good companies but perhaps just overvalued in the last couple of years.

[porsche1945] 06/6/2024 10:09

Terminal, just watched an interview with Nick Train, he’s starting to sound like Neil Woodford, they are never going to do any good now investing so much into basket case U.K., the companies are neither good enough or big enough, he drones on about Diageo, Diageo is the same price now it was in 2017, hopeless investment.

[flyer61] 06/6/2024 07:49

And it is!.....one trade yesterday of 520 shares Off Book at £848. Plenty of other trades £850 and above. Strange day....did someone have a year end yesterday that needed this pepping up a bit. Guess we will never know.

[flyer61] 05/6/2024 10:31

Welcome cynicalsteve....I am in for the long term however I do expect the board to act in the best interests of ALL shareholders and not be patsies for T and L. Also want to see this very material discount managed.

Todays price action is not easily explainable. The obvious one is someone knows something that we don't. Maybe normal service will be resumed tomorrow!

[giltedge1] 05/6/2024 10:30

Regulatory Capital is on website £2.2 M 25% of fixed overheads. Also needs £10 million for winding up some FCA jargon, called ICARA. So £10 million capital must be held at all times, so plenty spare £90M odd. Good to see share price rise, maybe leaked M&A?.

[cynicalsteve] 05/6/2024 09:58

I hope it's just 'noise', I've recently started buying and I'm now the proud owner of 2 entire shares! I'm assuming that investing in LTI is about evolution rather than revolution. As the holding in LTIL gradually reduces in percentage terms and other shares are added to the portfolio it becomes more 'normal' (or as normal as a LT portfolio can be) so share buybacks become possible, the discount narrows and we benefit. I don't actually want any decisive change at the moment, those of you who have already built up your holding will take a different view of course.

Even as I write this the share price goes up again, starting to wonder...

[cc2014] 05/6/2024 09:07

That's the stock market for you.

I have no idea!

[flyer61] 05/6/2024 09:03

Did I miss something.....has a bell been rung...has the Chairman take leave of his senses.....what gives?

[spectoacc] 04/6/2024 14:41

Amusing sub-heading to IC article:

"What we can learn from Nick Train's latest apology".

[steve3sandal] 04/6/2024 07:16

I thought about £1.5m? So yes, the cash belongs to shareholders. Unfortunately we have no votes or yachts and Directors Salaries don’t need to be covered by declining LTL earnings unless there are other Rules about being ‘profitable217; at certain places in the Accounts.

[cc2014] 04/6/2024 06:46

Based on your response Steve my question is irrelevant

[steve3sandal] 04/6/2024 06:22

Good question.
Credit to Google Search…Linklaters
I can’t speak for correctness without checking.
Under AIFMD, an AIFM which is fully authorised under AIFMD and is an internally managed AIF is required to have initial capital of at least €300,000.
An authorised AIFM which is an external manager of one or more AIFs is required to have initial capital of (i) €125,000 plus (ii) 0.02% of the value of the portfolios of the AIFs it manages in excess of €250 million, subject to a cap of €10 million. AIFMD gives Member States the flexibility to authorise AIFMs not to provide 50% of the amount referred to in (ii) if the authorised AIFM benefits from a guarantee from a bank or insurer. However, please note that this provision has not necessarily been transposed into all national laws, and the position will need to be checked on a country-by-country basis. In addition, capital requirements under CRR must be complied with (typically one-quarter of its preceding year’s fixed overheads).

The capital requirements mentioned above do not apply to an AIFM which is also authorised as a management company for the purposes of the UCITS Directive.

Further, authorised AIFMs must either (i) have professional indemnity insurance, or (ii) have additional own funds appropriate to cover risks arising from professional negligence. In the case of (i) above, in addition to obtaining professional indemnity insurance, the authorised AIFM must hold adequate own funds to cover any exclusions in the insurance policy. In the case of (ii) above, the additional own funds must equal at least 0.01% of the value of the portfolio of AIFs managed. The liability of the AIFM should not be affected by delegation or sub-delegation and the AIFM should provide adequate coverage for professional risks related to such third parties for whom it is legally liable.

Own funds (including any additional own funds for the purposes of covering professional liability risks) must be invested in liquid assets or assets readily convertible to cash in the short term (and not in speculative positions).

[cc2014] 04/6/2024 05:54

Does anyone know how much regulatory capital investments companies like LTL have to hold?

As part of that cash they've got parked will be that and isn't available to shareholders of LTL unless it's wound up.

[steve3sandal] 03/6/2024 15:07

Excellent Flyer. Perhaps we should try and get you on the Board. I still like the quoted portfolio at these valuations.

[flyer61] 03/6/2024 14:48

So a few observations on LTL's results.

It remains a vast cash generating machine for the chosen few. The salary bill is colossal for the small number of people employed. Any talk of increasing it to keep the 'talent' will not read well in the Sunday Telegraph.

What is interesting is the low amount of interest received. Not sure why this should be.
They have made a decision (sensibly) in my eyes to buy short dated Government Gilts. Maybe they read these threads ;-). When I first saw the figure of investments £33M (a change from zero) I thought they were maybe buying their own funds! to prop the enterprise up :-).

So the business for arguments sake has a £100M of readies on the balance sheet. Of which about £24M is attributable to us on a good day.

No LTL shares in treasury at the year end. I wonder whether we will get news on this shortly?

Looking forward, we know AUM has already dropped £1.5B since the Jan 2024 year end.
So dividends received from LTL will continue their material decline.

The share price is indicating to me that a decision has been made to keep the dividend at £51.5 with confirmation that without a change in LTLs fortunes it will be lower next year.

Of course the Chairman may pull a rabbit out of the bag with a 1000 for one share split and quarterly dividends going forward but I doubt it very much.

Present share price is fair value to the top of it's range. I'd buy again in the £790's...maybe.

[steve3sandal] 03/6/2024 12:14

Taking £9.3m (thanks for the number) suggests £46.50 gross per 200,000 shares. IIRC they’ve distributed around 85% so c£40 per LTI plus the quoted portfolio, plus minus any levers the Board pull. A same of £51.50 doesn’t look out of the question for March 2024 YE. Obviously AUM has melted away and is probably a third less than the average of the previous year so Dividend rebasing in Mar 2025 YE is a forgone conclusion. Speculating on £40, £800 SP, 5% the current cash rate, and a couple of bounces from £780 share price the market is probably pricing them about right at the moment.
Not long to wait until the Board have something to say, but not holding my breath. I haven’t had time to look at where £25m cash has gone yet.

[spectoacc] 03/6/2024 12:00

It is, but when/where will the turn be. Does feel as if the market's attracting some cash again, but doubt L-T is.

[flyer61] 03/6/2024 11:52

Have a look at Note 15 and see where part of the £100M of cash has gone.....

I make it LTIT picked up £9.3M of dividends.

Really old news now...its all about AUM in front of us.

[spectoacc] 03/6/2024 11:29

"Remuneration for its seven directors almost halved from £15.1m to £8.6m. The highest-paid director, likely to be Nick Train or Mike Lindsell, received £2.6m, a steep fall from the £5.6m they took home in the previous 12 months. "

Reward for failure, even if it's half the reward of last year's failure.

Imagine getting £8.2m over 24 months for running a listing ship.

[flyer61] 01/6/2024 13:49

So results for the year to 31 March out soon.

Best guess for the dividend. Rebase or maintain?

[giltedge1] 30/5/2024 08:04

Difficult to see AUM grow from here, Relx,Exp,Sage good companies but peaked, Dge going sideways, too much debt. Ulvr OK on the rise, Bag on the rise but too small holding. Burb needs change in sentiment. Best Hope AUM static. HL my only salvation posted too cheap a few months ago. FSTA a deep value buy strange how NT sold.