Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[damian] 25/3/2009 13:10

kiwi

Yes pity they did not get more for the rump.Commercial property is not exactly flavour of the month and Land has shorters crawling all over it.Remains to be seen how much lower it can go in the teeth of this recession.


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Land Securities PLC (LAND.LN), the U.K.'s largest real estate investment trust, Wednesday confirmed it had sold the rump of its shares offered in the GBP755.7 million rights issue.

The company confirmed that bookrunners Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Cazenove and UBS found buyers for the remaining 15 million shares, for which value acceptances were not received, at a price of 430 pence per share. It said earlier today that it received 95% take-up for the rights issue from shareholders.

Land Securities launched its rights issue in February to shore up its balance sheet, protect the company against downside risks associated with further drops in property values, and "position the business to exploit attractive market opportunities."

Land Securities has a market capitalization of GBP3.48 billion. The stock has lost 10% of its value since the 270 pence-a-share, five-for-eight rights issue was announced. On Tuesday, the shares closed at 461.5 pence.

At 1200 GMT, Land Securities shares traded down 28 pence, or 6%, at 433 pence while the benchmark FTSE 100 index traded down 1.1%.

[kiwihope] 25/3/2009 12:56

The rump of 15M shares sold at 430p. No wonder the price tanked today ...

[damian] 25/3/2009 12:04

Hi Random

Good point !.

Rights issue now added to my holding by my broker.Tucked away in my ISA as a bet on the Commercial property sector.

[randomwalker] 25/3/2009 10:33

Hi damian

I agree, very good take up, especially when you consider the typical LAND shareholder. I have been very long the Rights, and sold a few in anticipation of today's auction.

Just been in to buy some at 430, which has to be cheap in the long term.

I wonder if HMG will be buying their paper? They are lots of opportunities in commercial property at mom for anyone who can raise the wind

[damian] 25/3/2009 08:15

A 95% take up of the rights looks good !.

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Land Securities PLC (LAND.LN) said Wednesday that shareholders representing 95% of its shares have subscribed to its GBP755.7 million rights issue.

The U.K. real estate investment trust said bookrunners Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Cazenove and UBS will now attempt to find subscribers for the remaining 15 million shares.

Land Securities launched its rights issue in February, saying the additional capital would strengthen the balance sheet, protect the company against downside risks associated with further drops in property values, and "position the business to exploit attractive market opportunities."

[careful] 24/3/2009 16:18

marlon you sound like george best talking about his last drink.

[marlonbrando] 23/3/2009 12:05

Thank you kindly Tourist07.

On this my final parting note, I would like to refer you all to the following;

Mr Peter Schiff. Type his name in You Tube and you will find a host of clips with his views on the US economy. There is a clip with him on a news show with Art Laffer from 2006 where Laffer ridicules Schiff in an ungentlemanly fashion.

There are also other news clips from the past where Schiff is lambasted and ridiculed for his views on the economy.

Now personally I agree with Peter wholeheartedly and unreservedly, not because his views have influenced me, but because they are my views as well. His argument and interpretation of the maths surrounding the US economy is an exact mirror of my own conclusions from the same figures. It also prefaces my own views on QE and it's consequent damage potential.

I'm not saying anyone should agree with Peter or me for that matter, however based on the facts to date, (and again I emphasise, that's all I'm interested in) one concludes that Peter's view in 2006 has been borne out to date. Art Laffer has also released a book called 'The End of Prosperity' in direct contradiction to the view he expressed in his ridicule of Peter, and is shamefully, now cashing in on Peter's viewpoint by what can only be described as pure plagiarism. A charlatan right through to his marrow.

Although the views expressed are concerned with the US economy, the actions taken in the UK are in parallel and so my views are exactly the same on principle (and common sense).

A final point: Peter (and by default I) sound like pessimists. But if you listen to the true meaning, we are both optimists in that we both believe that the recession will not result in the end of civilisation and that a free market economy will by it's nature resolve itself despite interference (almost Darwinian like). We are, however, of the same pessimistic view about the government actions being taken to date, in the belief that it will prolong and deepen the recession.

I would have hoped to discuss this matter further, however this is my final note until my return to trading in September. By then, I expect some of my speculation/opinion will have turned to fact or be shown to be erroneous, one way or the other.

ALL THE BEST!

[tourist07] 20/3/2009 02:38

Good luck to you too Marlon .... enjoy your 6 month sabbatical ... we'll miss you!

[marlonbrando] 19/3/2009 12:23

Frustratingly I have had a problem with my live feeds and level II feeds. I'm on back up systems right now, but can't keep a decent track of stocks, for a multitude of reasons.

Also shows that a little fundamental research helps. I didn't know that LAND was going ex-div yesterday at 16.5p div on a rising price. Equates to about 4.5% return on price at the time. I would have gone long on LAND the day before on that Info. Typo56, I wish you'd put that info on the board earlier, or at least in time for me to trade - lol.

Ok I'm winding all my positions up ready for a break - generally I'd stop at Easter, but now seems as good a time as any.

Still short on WOS and DGE. Not going to open any new positions. Won't mention Forex, since I don't think my views are too popular, but I remain of the same view.

Well I wish everyone all the very best and I'll be back on one of the ADVFN boards some time in September.

GOOD LUCK IN ALL YOUR TRADING!

[damian] 19/3/2009 11:54

There must be a log jam of shorts trying to close there positions here !.

[typo56] 17/3/2009 21:29

Don't forget folks, ex div 16.5p tomorrow.

[marlonbrando] 17/3/2009 15:16

Price action on LAND very choppy today. Still unable to decipher what that means and still on the sidelines.

Markets seem to be taking a breather from the rally, but nothing is being given away at this point. Too difficult for me to call.

Still have some shorts in play, all but one are in negative territory. Even as a gauge they aren't telling me much right now, one way or the other.

Until tomorrow then.

Edit: TSCO (a gauge) is on it's 6th day of continuing rise. This is on diminishing volume. There are cross currents of information at present all adding to the confusion, or should I say my confusion. It seems very likely that TSCO will pull back tomorrow, however even a small pull back will not be a declaration of intent. Am I being impatient? LOL

[marlonbrando] 16/3/2009 10:34

Whilst we're on the subject of great traders, of course Jesse Livermore comes immediately to most peoples minds. Whilst absolutely fascinating both in legendary status and trading capability, his emotional capacity to withstand the massive risks he took in trading whilst having an incredible ability to tape read are theatre to me. I do not have the personality nor the 'cool' state of mind to even contemplate trying to emulate his trading style. I would have paid handsomely to watch him in action though.

edit: Not forgetting Simon (aka 'Evil Knievil)' Cawkwell who has my respect as a trader of note. I also know he is a regular contributor to the ADVFN message boards. His appetite for risk is far greater than mine and I believe his returns far exceed mine.

[marlonbrando] 16/3/2009 09:13

Good morning All.

Hi Tourist07, good to hear from you. In actual fact my targets are higher than 3.5% per month. And I do consider myself to be risk averse, in that I rarely take what I consider to be an unreasoned trade. But, hey, I won't bore you with all those details. I don't trade all year round and generally stop from around mid April to late August/early September. So my targets are based on around 7 months trading per year.( so for me 21 months of trading takes 3 years).

There are plenty of traders who achieve much higher returns than I do and take much greater risks than I do, so I'm certainly not anywhere near the 'walk on water'(lol) category. (Ed Seykota has probably been the most inspirational trader for me, however there are many others that have provided me with inspiration).

LAND is pushing ever higher. I remain on the side lines. My gauge, TSCO, is at 333 as I write.

[tourist07] 16/3/2009 01:04

Hi Marlon, good to read all your posts.

But seriously, how can you say you are targetting 3.5% per month .... with a risk averse strategy??? I mean, come onnnnn ...

Or do you do it whilst walking on water, maybe?

Nonetheless, I wish you well!

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 17:19

Have a good weekend everyone!

[damian] 13/3/2009 15:54

Mark

LNDN and you can trade them now.

[markthetrader] 13/3/2009 15:51

Anyone know what ticker RI Nil Painds will trade as?

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 15:29

Damian,

That is some loss. I have learnt(the hard way) to have a hedging strategy that fits with my risk/reward ratios. So although I may not hit the glamorous heights of an astronomical return, neither will I suffer any significant loss if my calculations are correct. It does mean (for me at least) multiple accounts and hedging strategies that involve options.

Of course everyone tailors their own risk reward ratios to suit their personalities. Mine are based on me being risk averse.

I'm just too long in the tooth to shoot for the stars, I have to keep my feet firmly on the ground. lol

[damian] 13/3/2009 15:09

marlon

Nice in theory but you have not factored in the odd hiccup eg check out the Azm thread i am 20k down on that one !.

Only saving grace is that i sold a lot of shares in good profits to pay for that mistake.Which turned out to be the correct action as the FTSE nose dived.

So yes pick your stocks with care.

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 14:52

Thanks Damian can't resist adding the following;

LAND on a runaway train.

Can't resist doing some maths here. Take a fund and grow it by 3.5% per month (not an unlikely return when running your own finances and by no means splendiferous).

This fund would double approximately every 20 months. So if you took £10K, growing it at just 3.5% per month over a period of 5 years, you would have £80K (Assuming no withdrawals of course). Compare that with putting £10K into a 5 year bond or a managed fund over 5 years.

Of course it is emphatically more work and not everybody's 'cup of tea' but it allows one to make some sense of the fund managers returns (as listed in the FT).

Now the above is a very simple example, but if you believe that you can trade an account and grow it by around 3.5% per month you will be doing significantly better than most fund managers. Grow it by just 1% per month and you will still double your money in just under 6 years.

It's just something to bear in mind really.

[damian] 13/3/2009 14:41

marlon

Respect mate thats a good post !.

As a long term investment i agree about Big Blue.

[mpoolec] 13/3/2009 12:09

Whats the consensus on taking up the rights?

[damian] 13/3/2009 11:55

Bolton calls the bottom

Anthony 'Let Me Try Again' Bolton says once more the market has bottomed
By Richard Lander: 13 March 2009

Now all I do is just exist, And think about the chance I've missed
(Let Me Try Again, sung by Frank Sinatra, written by Anka/Cahn/Caravelli)

I've never really looked closely enough to see whether Anthony Bolton's eyes are blue, but like the late, great crooner himself, the legendary ex fund manager is asking for another shot at redemption. Last autumn you may recall, Bolton, now president of Investments at Fidelity International, said stock markets were at or near their lows. He was wrong of course – by some margin. But he wasn't the only big name to call it wrong by any means and in a way it was comforting – why beat ourselves up when we see the good and the great getting egg on their faces?

Now he's saying the same thing again, this time in a video interview over at FT.com with the paper's admirable fund maven Pauline Skypala. He doesn't exactly admit to getting things wrong or apologising but there is no bluster about the man. So here are some extracts from the interview. Anthony Bolton on ...

Market Timing
It's very difficult to get the exact timing of markets right, but there are things that I look at which have to do with the history of the cycles of bull and bear markets, the sentiment – how people are behaving and how they think – and then the valuations – and those reached an extreme back in November last year which I thought might have marked the final low. Again, last week they were back at an extreme. So that's why I think that we're pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market. I think it will be the start of the bull market. People must be feeling pretty depressed about their equity investments but my strong message is 'don't give up now, you're giving up really at the last fence.'

Market transitions
If everyone bought at the bottom then it wouldn't be the bottom so only a few people buy and they'll be sucked back in when times look much better and by then the stock market will also be a lot higher. What changes a bear market into a bull market is a sort of very subtle change of behaviour. Some people think 'we'll wait till there's lots of much better news and then that's the right time to buy' but the market will have turned well before that.

Other asset classes
I think all risk assets – corporate bonds, property – look attractive. I think the one area that looks less attractive at the moment is government bonds which have done extremely well. I think possibly [there is a bubble in government bonds] and the quantitative easing I think has produced perhaps a final phase