Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 10:28

Thanks Damian.

As you probably know my strategies are short term and have no bearing on longer term views. I have no doubt that there are some fairly good long term prospects in the market right now.

Whilst I'm at it and perhaps as a short term gauge, TSCO is showing up as a glaring sell at current share price of 329.10. However if it crosses 333 then the market is telling me I must re-evaluate my views on topping out.

(ps 333 is not a stop it is a warning sign)

[damian] 13/3/2009 10:17

marlon

Many thanks i bought as a long term hold in my ISA.It is stuffed with cash and needs some filling.

Good luck to you !.

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 10:13

Hi Damian,

I'm certainly not saying you're wrong to buy LAND. My own signals are that the market is topping on this rally. That goes for LAND too, however it doesn't matter what my signals say, it matters what the market does and the phrase 'only the price pays' is dominant over any signal or fundamental or news item for that matter.

I am on the sidelines as far as LAND is concerned and I wish you good luck on your trade.

Regards.

[damian] 13/3/2009 10:04

marlon

I bought some this morning.

I thought you were looking a bit sad and alone on this thread,now you tell me you are bailing out!.

[marlonbrando] 13/3/2009 09:59

Good morning All on this auspicious occasion of a Friday the 13th.

Signs, albeit minor that the rally is topping out. I've closed out all my long positions and opened a few more shorts.

Tempted to short LAND at 352 but this time I want all the 'ducks in a row' before I pull the trigger, so to speak. 3 for 3 would probably hurt my pride more than anything else, if I am to be honest.

All the best.

[racg] 12/3/2009 15:53

I have rather the same feeling about Eastenders.

[marlonbrando] 12/3/2009 12:51

After having the usual differences of opinions amongst my academic friends (I am not an academic) I thought I'd share some points with you. I warn you this is 'off-topic'.

The discussion revolves around maths, physics and chemistry. The most essential of subjects (with all due respect to biologists of course). The question is whether maths is a man made subject or not. I put it to you that to consider maths as such is an error of the highest magnitude. I will be as succinct but as lucid as I can to put my argument forward.

Maths is a translation of everything that occurs around us. Maths isn't made, it is, just as gravity is and oxygen is. Maths is our language to describe and interpret and quantify what actually is. When you wake up, check you clock you use maths to interpret, measure your distance to work or wherever, measure your speed, plan your meals, quantities etc. There is no time when maths is not being used to interpret your daily/ nightly activity. It permeates all. Understanding maths is essential in our investigating, interpreting and creating the world around us. A physicist argues that physics is the ground root of all understanding, and in fact so does a chemist. If the periodic table is the base of elements where all compounds come from, then maths is the base that sits below the periodic table, because no formulae in either of the subjects, whether it is used to determine the bonding of atoms or the splitting of them could be arrived at without maths - there are no exceptions.

It is by far the most intriguing of subjects, it's not a religion, it's not a philosophy, it just plain is. If it wasn't for maths at the base, I couldn't be using a computer right now.

I'd just like to add as perhaps an example of what I mean by all this. The physicist believes that to understand the formation of a black hole one must understand the physics surrounding it's creation. Yes, I agree, but to understand the physics one must first understand that maths is the language used to interpret and understand the physics.

Just thought I'd have a little rant. lol

A little challenge - pick any topic/subject that you believe maths is not integral to...even in an argument with your wife / partner, dates , numbers of times you've done /been wrong, etc etc. will be integral. Of course I'm not suggesting that in the middle of an argument you draw out a pie chart showing proportions of failures etc.etc, but logically and factually it would certainly have it's place. - LOL

[marlonbrando] 12/3/2009 10:46

Good day All.

LAND continues to baffle me somewhat. Just seems to do it's own thing, a bit like a mischievous child who runs his own erratic path before finally coming into
line.

Having six children it is the kind of behaviour I'm used to so I should be able to get a handle on LAND sooner rather than later. And before anyone says anything, I am fully aware of the world's population crisis and I know I haven't helped the situation - I plead guilty.

All the best.

[marlonbrando] 11/3/2009 15:04

I've closed half my long positions to lock in some profit. That just reflects my attitude of caution at present. I've opened a few shorts as well, but those are more of a gauge and also slight hedge I suppose. If the market carries on up tomorrow they'll close out on hitting stops, if it doesn't then my remaining long positions will close out at break even. I've got a few puts placed to protect me against a gap down on open tomorrow as well.

Not much else to do today, until tomorrow then.

[marlonbrando] 11/3/2009 09:27

Good Morning All.

Markets have pulled back slightly. It isn't significant enough at this stage to provide me with any new signals. Volume on the Ftse 100 yesterday was a little lower than I would have expected it to be for such move.

Caution still applies at this point.

All the best.

[marlonbrando] 10/3/2009 18:17

My opine on the above article.

If mark to market rules are suspended it would fly in the face of all the senior politicians who are calling for more regulation since this in reality amounts to deregulation. However, if they are suspended, I am without a doubt that the same old tired phraseology would make its way into the rationale for doing so, 'this time it's different' 'in these extreme conditions' etc etc.

But then again it wouldn't be the first time that politicians said one thing and then contradicted themselves with great aplomb. I would provide a list of examples but I fear the ADVFN servers would not have the capacity to cope. Lol.

[marlonbrando] 10/3/2009 16:23

That is interesting news scburbs.

It comes alongside news of worst UK home sales figures for Feb since 1978. Also a near 5% bounce in the DJIA (as I write) on the anniversary of the end of the boom for tech stocks in 2000,(for those that remember).

Also the court review of mark to market rules for banks on Thursday would impact hugely on stocks if the rules are suspended by the SEC, ie there would be a massive rally.

Some interesting times ahead - I am fully hedged.

[scburbs] 10/3/2009 15:44

"Deka to buy in UK
12:01 | 10.03.09
By Lucy Scott

German open ended fund manager Deka is looking to buy prime property in the UK over the next few months, as it seeks to pre-empt the end of the UK pricing correction.

Deka, which expects to invest about E1.7bn in 2009, said it is seeking to invest in prime property in London, Edinburgh, Liverpool, Bristol and Glasgow, before the 'window of opportunity closes'.

In recent weeks, the UK has returned to favour because of a rapid pricing correction which has slashed 37.4% from property values since June 2007. It is estimated that the UK is nine months ahead of many other European markets.

Franz Lucien Mörsdorf, managing director of Deka and WestInvest, told Property Week Global: 'The upwards trend in cap rates will cease by the end of 2009.'

Deka, which is Germany's largest manager of property funds with E19bn of assets under management, has already kicked off its acquisition spree."

[marlonbrando] 10/3/2009 15:19

Ok we're finally getting the bounce that I think many traders have been expecting. Asia markets provided a clue that it was going to happen today, but with so many false signals, caution was definitely the order of the day.

So now the question is will this rally sustain over a few days or peter out by tomorrow? I opened a few positions today which are in the money, however I personally can't say with any confidence how long that'll be the case. I'll let them ride with a trailing lock in strategy.

I'll need stock EOD figures for today before I can work any specifics out.

All the best.

[marlonbrando] 10/3/2009 10:55

Good day to everyone.

Don't have much to say today - that's probably a first - lol!

LII showing a surge, but that may be due to a stop on short trading. Well my broker won't accept any new short trades on it anyway, so I'm assuming that's the case across the board. Let me know if that assumption is erroneous.

[scburbs] 09/3/2009 23:24

Ex-rights tomorrow morning. Theoretical ex-rights price from 390p close is 344p.

[volsung] 09/3/2009 17:21

Well I've enjoyed my time shorting LAND and BLND. Tight stop but have feeling there could be more juice in this fall

[marlonbrando] 09/3/2009 17:17

Stop hit on LAND again. LAND is a tough stock to read. That's two for two - 100% loss record on trading LAND.

No error this time, got in at an exact signal and closed at an exact stop. Market tried to rally, but it seems the battle was too strong. I can't tell if the market is going to try again at this level or give up some more ground before it attempts another rally. But if it does give up ground it will be a large chunk.

I now have a few equity positions open, all currently showing a profit and well positioned. LAND, nevertheless, continues to outmanoeuvre me. I'd say this was getting personal, but it really isn't...lol. I will be watching LAND closely though, and also BLND for that matter. There is a part of me that would like to decode it's seemingly hidden secret. Is LAND an enigma or am I just missing the blatantly obvious? That is more the likely scenario.

Yes I think it's time to deploy the options strategies!

[skyship] 09/3/2009 14:52

Tourist07: "..any Commerical property companies that might be worth a punt, do let us know - who cares if its off topic!"

Nip over to the CP+ thread & see my post on FCPT.



sp = 59p
divi = 0.5p/month = 6p per annum
yield = 10.1%
NAV as at 31st Dec'08 = 85.6p
NAV Discount = 31%
Gearing only 10% - SO NO LTV CONCERNS

Currently the best value commercial property deal

[marlonbrando] 09/3/2009 09:35

I've just taken a weak signal to buy LAND @ 398.25 Tight stop has been placed. Position not hedged on strategic reasoning, stop too tight to let a put be effective.

I might be playing with fire here - if the price holds up from here on through the day then I will be more comfortable.

[marlonbrando] 09/3/2009 08:39

Good day to you all and hope everyone had a great weekend.

Yes indeed, Tourist07, a modest amount of deductive reasoning would of course have brought me to that conclusion, sadly I failed. Anyway I am again flattered and I thank you for that and your kind recommendation. I will avail myself of some time off in the near future, Easter to be exact. (btw maths formulae, or perhaps any formulae always looks more complicated than it actually is - if it was complicated I can assure you I wouldn't understand it myself).

My own analysis and system signals are showing a bounce in the market later in the day. If one doesn't occur, then we are dangerously close to, I hesitate to use the word, but capitulation is what I'm thinking. Again I remain on the sidelines until the market shows it's hand.

[tourist07] 09/3/2009 03:18

Well marlonbrando, so many clever formulae!

Firstly, I agree with racg that this board is much better reading for having you around - although my recommendation (feel the sun/wind on your face) stands - for YOUR benefit more than for ours.

Secondly, I am a little disappointed that you did not connect the moniker "Tourist" with the time of posting - 3am - and, rightly deduce that I must be outsdie the UK ..... identifying links between two apparently discrete pieces of information is a tool worth its weight in gold in todays climate :)

So do keep posting, meanwhile if you come across any Commerical property companies that might be worth a punt, do let us know - who cares if its off topic!

[marlonbrando] 06/3/2009 17:07

Hi careful,

Thanks for the compliment, I am flattered.

On the Bernanke and King front, I don't doubt their academic substance, and indeed I am not privy to all the information and behind the scenes activity. Therein lies the problem, in that it appears more effort is being given to political sleight of hand than uncompromising tackling of the problem at its root cause. If the fire fighting on the periphery continues then more 'burning' will continue with evermore damage.

I don't think we are on the brink of armageddon, and of course there will be a recovery. What is concerning me is the extended time line put on the recovery by inappropriate action. The actions of both men, to date, have hardly inspired confidence. Your argument then applies (and one should be relieved rather than concerned) that since they are both men of high calibre and are privy to information that gives them infinitely more opportunity, then perhaps such a major financial disaster should have been averted in the first place. The facts (and that is all I'm concerned about) do not bear this out. It then begs the question, how much faith should I then put in these men, who not only have the availability of 'full' information, but also the position, power and duty to act upon it. Yet we are faced with 'last roll of the dice' scenarios.

You could forgive me for raising some doubts Sir.

I wish you and All a great weekend.