Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[basbas] 02/3/2009 16:04

some talk of USA commercial contagion; DYOR

[skyship] 02/3/2009 11:23

At that level BP yield 8.7%! Personally though I would accept the signal & BUY DNX @ 990p.....

Anyone know why the property companies are quite so flat today? Some of the falls do seem rather excessive. Has someone come out with another bearish analyst report perhaps...

[marlonbrando] 02/3/2009 10:04

Good morning All.

Plenty of short term BUY signals cropping up today. Predominantly in Pharms. I've bought GSK @ 1035. Also bought BA.(quite aggressively) @ 356.5. Still watching LAND from the sidelines.

Best wishes.

edit: Just taken the signal on BP. to buy @ 431.5

[ydderf] 01/3/2009 14:03

the commercial investment market has turned, don't wait for analysts to spot it, go to a couple of commercial auctions in London, or subscribe to the Estates Gazette, don't take my word for it, the data is there for all to see, the market is freely flowing since early January.....the key is Libor, you can borrow for 4-5% (and falling fast)and get 8-9% from first rates covenants.....The likes of Helical Bar will likely miss the boat - it is no longer sinking!

[marlonbrando] 27/2/2009 14:10

I think I've finally worked out my mistakes with LAND which were all compounded by my first initial mistake.

The signal to go long was to buy at 501, but I jumped in early at 514. That single error snowballed and was compounded into miscalculation of trade size, since I ended up paying more than I should have and a miscalculation on the stop loss figure, because I bought at the wrong price. Jumping in early for fear of missing the trade is a very basic error.

Strategy wise if I had bought at 501(which is where the true signal was) I should also have placed an 'at the money' Mar 09 Protective Put. I could then let this run to expiry if the LAND did rise or else if LAND fell I would have been fully hedged. As it happens I would have closed LAND at 541 achieving a target profit (from 501), whilst at the same time letting the Option run to expiry. Now that would have also given me the opportunity to make more profit on the option if LAND falls back whereas if it doesn't I only give up the premium which I was prepared to do as a hedge from the outset.

It is so simple(when I follow the system properly) so you can understand how annoying it is for me to have ignored my own rules and played against myself as it were. Not because of profit, but because I've made these mistakes enough times in early years to not have made them again. What a fool(me that is)!

[marlonbrando] 27/2/2009 09:36

Good morning All.

Hi Tourist07 - yep I stayed out and yesterday just focused on stocks that were going my way. I had taken a long on IAP (ICAP) on Tuesday, again my system showing a surge in the stock, and surge it did. Yesterday I closed my position on IAP and simultaneously opened a short (saves on commissions by just doing one trade). Also been short on BT since 1.36 and yesterday got the signal to close (but that was on a trailing stop and my profit had far exceeded my targets).

Also went short on CCL at 1515 so my day was pretty busy with signals yesterday.

I now keep an eye on LAND and LII but my overall experience with these two has been a small loss, so I think I need to get to know their behaviour better before I risk any more of my money. Although in the end they went my way, I still made some elementary trading mistakes both in strategy and timing, which was hugely frustrating.

LAND now goes down in my records as a loss

Frustrating because;

1. Nobody likes to lose
2. It adds a blip to my success percentages - it's like scoring a bogey when you should have scored a birdie and now the score card doesn't look as good as it should (golfers will understand).

All the best.

[careful] 26/2/2009 17:05

a difficult sector to understand.
many smaller retailers going bust could be good for land sec and their tennants in the long run.

[tourist07] 26/2/2009 17:02

Looks like it ... one thing that interests (disappoints!) me is that whilst SEGRO's shares have risen some 20% on the Debt Covenants news the bonds - which I hold - have hardly moved. Hmmmm, anyone got any suggestions why?

[scburbs] 26/2/2009 15:07

Sector bounce underway?

[tourist07] 26/2/2009 14:53

Hi marlon, looking at the charts above I hope you mulled and stayed out!

[scburbs] 25/2/2009 13:38

Volsung,

Don't forget what you said a few days ago though. Personally I think we could see a sector bounce as the various rights issues go through. Segro renegotiating its debt covenants reasonably cheaply was also a big positive for the sector today.

volsung - 20 Feb'09 - 14:52 - 100 of 121

Yes marlon - wouldn't take that much for me to close those two shorts though. They've done very well and a profit is a profit.

[careful] 25/2/2009 11:19

smart shorters know that the serious money could have been made by driving the share price down to the rights price leaving lots with the underwriters.
that was a long shot and it has failed.

[marlonbrando] 25/2/2009 11:09

I think there is an opportunity to pairs trade LII and LAND here. I'm contemplating going short on LAND and long on LII. However I am a little nervous about prelims on LII due tomorrow.

I shall muse this strategy further.

[volsung] 25/2/2009 10:50

To be honest schurbs I think this has further to fall so I've increased my short.

[scburbs] 25/2/2009 10:48

Nice start to the day. Shorters starting to close? How are the shorters on here feeling? Time to take some profits or increase your short position?

[careful] 25/2/2009 10:48

24 March is last date for payments.
25 March dealing in fully paid ex rights shares.
5 march to be entitled to participate.

[lostinmoney] 25/2/2009 10:38

when is the rights issue due please?

[careful] 25/2/2009 10:10

this has fallen too far.
if hmg delays 5% business rates increase to help retail/property, as seems likely, things will look even better post rights.

[marlonbrando] 25/2/2009 09:06

Well today there has/is something of a surge in LAND. A day too late for me, lol however LII has presented me with a gift of some profit and I'm not going to look this one in the mouth. I've taken my profit on LII and I am indeed grateful.

Good luck all.

[westcoastrich] 24/2/2009 22:28

Market Scan
Next Crisis: Commercial Real Estate
Maurna Desmond, 02.23.09, 08:45 PM EST
Atlanta Fed president sees U.S. housing troubles spreading to office and retail segments.
Word of another wave of mortgage-related pain added to investor unease Monday after a top Fed official warned that American real estate troubles will go commercial this year. Nearly all asset classes took a hit for the day, with only the dollar showing appreciable gains.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said he was concerned that U.S. banks remain "pretty heavily exposed" to commercial real estate. "It is the one domestic factor that keeps me up at night," he said.

[westcoastrich] 24/2/2009 22:28

Market Scan
Next Crisis: Commercial Real Estate
Maurna Desmond, 02.23.09, 08:45 PM EST
Atlanta Fed president sees U.S. housing troubles spreading to office and retail segments.
Word of another wave of mortgage-related pain added to investor unease Monday after a top Fed official warned that American real estate troubles will go commercial this year. Nearly all asset classes took a hit for the day, with only the dollar showing appreciable gains.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said he was concerned that U.S. banks remain "pretty heavily exposed" to commercial real estate. "It is the one domestic factor that keeps me up at night," he said.

[volsung] 24/2/2009 14:21

That impulsive 'greed' feeling is one well known to traders marlon. Never seem to lose that tendency myself!

[macansy77] 24/2/2009 14:18

entered the fray here, dipped a toe in - short at 570 'ish the other day and closed out for a small gain. After looking more closely (technicals rather than fundamentals) back in short at 495. I think this has a long way to fall yet - Lansdowne position is interesting, i think someone commented they'd have to close soon, can't see it somehow - they were short NRK for 4 years, all the way down to the bitter end...

[marlonbrando] 24/2/2009 14:07

Yep volsung it was a mistake alright. Seems crazy now that I took a signal for a stock that is in free fall. I never try to 'bottom fish' as it were, I have lost enough money in the past to have learnt the folly of attempting to do that.

The LII position is still open (hasn't hit the stop yet), however I will consider any retrace back up as lucky and not anything else. If it does go back up I will close with any amount of profit and consider that to be fortunate.

Yesterday's opening rise and then fall back was a key sign that things weren't right. Not playing a hedge short was an even bigger mistake - you'd think after all these years I would know better. In truth that evil monster 'greed' got the better of my calculated judgement. I should have pairs traded the two with one long and one short. When I read back on my posts I can only say that I have been a fool - and as the saying goes - I soon parted with my money.

I wish you all the best with your trades volsung.

[volsung] 24/2/2009 13:33

Fair play marlon for admitting a possible mistake. My shorts are continuing nicely both here and LII. HMSO and BLND also doing the business. My SRP is rocking the boat a bit but it is a volatile share and hopefully will continue its downtrend. GL all long or short.