Land Securities Share Discussion Threads

[flateric] 02/6/2008 21:05

Maybe interest returning...? A hammer candle today. RSI @ 35. 14-quid a pop.

[chairman2] 22/5/2008 23:11

what happens next with Trillium??

[chairman2] 02/5/2008 17:17

white R

what is the connection between Land Sec and Town and City

[whiterussians] 02/5/2008 14:03

check out TCSC may be ready for a big bounce

[spob] 14/4/2008 16:07

from FT Alphaville

NH: right Zulu, I have some comment on this Great Portland rumour for you
NH: here's the article
NH:
NH: and here's the english version
NH: Delek Real Estate in talks to buy UK property co
The target company is one of five largest income-producing property owners in the UK.
Avi Shauly 13 Apr 08 14:42
Sources inform ''Globes'' that Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) subsidiary Delek Real Estate Ltd. (TASE: DLKR) is in talks to acquire the controlling interest in one of the UK's five largest income-producing property companies. Sources at foreign investment banks said that Delek Real Estate subsidiaries plan to buy a substantial bloc of shares in the public company, which is traded on the London Stock Exchange at a market cap of NIS 4.2 billion and has NIS 8 billion in shareholders' equity. The company has an annual turnover of NIS 2.6 billion.
The target company's largest shareholder owns just 9% of it, facilitating the acquisition of control. Delek Real Estate is in talks with shareholders who own a quarter of the company altogether.
NH: Delek Real Estate CEO Ilik Rozansky said in response, "As part of the regular business of Delek Real Estate, we periodically consider transactions, and the company notifies the public in accordance with the proper procedures. When we have something to report, we'll report it."
NH: and here is some analyst comment
NH: come out of Merrill Lunch this morning
NH: Press from Globes Online suggests this morning suggests that Israeli billionaire Yitzhak Tshuva is in talks to buy a 25% stake in Great Portland. Mr Tshuva's family control 60% of Delek Global. The source is 'unidentified bankers'.
Is it plausible?

1. GPOR is said to be the preferred target given the largest holder only has 9%. I believe this IS correct, despite Bloomberg holders showing the largest holder at 21% (through various portfolios).
2. Capital in Israel is cheap (short term rates are at 3.25% & ML f/cs will fall to 2.5% this year)
3. Israeli banks are awash with liquidity (evident from the ML Israel conference last week).
4. In the UK you need to launch a bid if you move beyond 30%
BUT
5. GPOR is trading at a 18% discount to spot NAV of £5.94. Presumably to find a 25% stake in GPOR the company they would need to SUBSTANTIALLY pay away this discount and some. ML f/c's GPOR's NAV will be £4.95 2 years out. Thus if you believe that values will continue to fall (not a GPOR specific view) then the opportunity to get this kind of stake 'on the cheap' seems highly unlikely. Regardless on your view of NAV, I suspect any bidder for 25% would have to pay up substantially.
6. I would be more convinced if the rational was to gain access to strategic assets that in stronger markets would be less likely available or if Mr Tshuva thought an acquisition could deliver cost saving synergies.
Summary translation of the article

Sources inform ''Globes'' that Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) subsidiary Delek Real Estate Ltd. (TASE: DLKR) is in talks to acquire the controlling interest in one of the UK's five largest income-producing property companies. Sources at foreign investment banks said that Delek Real Estate subsidiaries plan to buy a substantial bloc of shares in the public company, which is traded on the London Stock Exchange at a market cap of NIS 4.2 billion and has NIS 8 billion in shareholders' equity. The company has an annual turnover of NIS 2.6 billion.
The target company's largest shareholder owns just 9% of it, facilitating the acquisition of control. Delek Real Estate is in talks with shareholders who own a quarter of the company altogether.
PM: So that first URL you put up was in hebrew i think
PM: And im rubbish at that
NH: Great Portland shres currently 10.5p better at 482.5p
PM: So this business owns NCP properties - and also various hotels
PM: V british play
NH: while we are on the subject of property companies
NH: one we have been following here for a while is Minerva
PM: Oh yea - developments>?
NH: stock up 5p to 95p this morning
NH: no new story just an upgrade from Merrill
NH: which follows an upgrade from Cazenove last week
NH: here's the summary of today's upgrade
NH: But not for the faint hearted
Minerva remains one of the higher beta plays in our UK real estate coverage
universe. In our view, current market pricing of Minerva looks to imply a very
pessimistic outcome for its three legacy projects, Walbrook, St Botolphs and Park
Place, Croydon. Our analysis suggests the share price implies the book values of
Walbrook (£180m), St Botolphs (£97m) are written down to zero and Park Place,
Croydon is written down by £100m to £45m. On this basis the IFRS NAV would
equate to 92p (in line with the share price) but if we include the uplift from
Lancaster Gate and Oden residential projects (kept at historical cost on the
balance sheet) of £85m or 52p (net of tax) the adjusted NAV would equate to
144p. Fundamentally, we believe Minerva is now cheap.
NH: Furthermore, we believe there has been some confusion around how the
construction loans work – consequently we have provided an insight of these
facilities in this note. We do not think the loans are a short/medium term issue but
the risks will increase if either scheme (Walbrook or St Botolphs) is vacant for a
prolonged period after practical completion.
Upgrade to Buy with Price Objective of 110p
The shares are now trading on a 70% discount to our adjusted NAV forecast of
299p. If we apply our two scenarios as outlined in this note the discount would
equate to 15% and 38% respectively. Under both scenarios we give little/no
upside for latter stages of several schemes including Lancaster Gate, Odeon and
the Ram Brewery development. Furthermore, we allow for a substantial write
down to Walbrook, St Botolphs and Park Place Croydon. We think investors
should focus on the adjusted NAV as this encapsulates the value uplift for
projects kept at historical cost on its balance sheet.

[chairman2] 25/3/2008 22:49

Trillium - deal done

yawn

wake us up - someone

[cerrito] 09/3/2008 22:50

FT REPORT - WEEKEND MONEY: Shaky turf for Land Securities

By Dominic Picarda, Financial Times
Published: Mar 08, 2008

Commercial property's foundations have seldom seemed shakier. The credit crunch has made financing projects and transactions much more difficult. At the same time, a slowing economy could put further pressure on rentals and property valuations. The Investment Property Database capital index has plunged 13.5 per cent from its high of June last year. But the index fell by double this amount in the early 1990s, so there's scope for further losses.

Having reached a multi-year low before the crisis began, Land Securities' valuation looks much more modest today. The sector's second largest player trades on 1.13 times its tangible assets, which history suggests could lead to a bounce on a 12-month view. But this valuation by no means represents an all-time low. In the late 1970s and early 1990s, it dropped to less than half the current level.

But the share price, which fell 40 per cent from its peak in January 2007, has rallied strongly since November. This appears to be a fourth-wave correction, according to the Elliott Wave Principle, although it recently stalled at the 200-day exponential moving average.

The recent high at 1658p was accompanied by a lower a peak on the MACD oscillator, a warning of a possible reversal to come.

The wave principle suggests that Land Securities is destined to make new lows below its November trough at 1371p. A potentially important target derived from Gann Theory lies at 1243p. Worryingly, there is not much support below 1371p until 1143p or so. Go short, placing a closing-stop loss above the 200-day exponential moving average, currently at 1652p.

[losses] 15/2/2008 08:23

Property sector reviewed
an ADVFN competitor
Goldman Sachs has cut its ratings on Hammerson and Land Securities to sell from neutral.

This comes as part of a wide-ranging review of the European property sector.

In a note to clients this morning, Goldman said that although share price underperformance may encourage a more positive view, three factors lead it to

remain cautious: a lack of financing strength, negative inflection points, a key point after which the market is likely to weaken, in the occupier market and unexciting valuations.

However, the broker said it sees little justification for being too bearish given the potential for higher earnings volatility in other sectors. Within the sector, France and Scandinavia appear most attractive, the UK and Spain the least, said Goldman.

Goldman said its analysis of the current financing position of the European real estate companies it covers suggests neither disaster nor euphoria. It sees an extended period of muted growth and rising borrowing costs given that current gearing levels appear demanding relative to pre-1990 levels and providers of finance are unlikely to regain their past appetite.

The broker said its coverage includes six 'buys' for which it sees two key themes: geographic exposure skewed to occupier markets, which it believes will be more robust, for example France and Sweden, and stronger balance sheet positions, such as in France.

Its five 'sells' play on the opposite of these themes, said the broker. It has added Castellum, Dolphin Capital and Silic to its 'Conviction Buy' List and Metrovacesa and Land Securities to its 'Conviction Sell' List.

It cut Hammerson to 'sell' from 'neutral' and reduced its target price to 870p from 990p and British Land was cut to 'neutral' from 'buy', with a 1,062p target, against 1,370p.

It cut Hammerson to 'sell' from 'neutral' and cut its target price to 870p, from 990p.

British Land was cut to 'neutral' from 'buy' with a 1,062p target, from 1,370p.

Goldman cut Land Securities to 'sell' from 'neutral' with a 1,201p target, from 1,532p

[losses] 07/2/2008 07:27

Not nice reading but things beginning to stabalise i.e "Encouraging signs of investor interest in property at these levels"

[losses] 07/2/2008 07:26

BLND results -

Financial highlights:

* Portfolio valuation mark-down of -8.9% for quarter, -8.4% for nine months

- Like-for-like rental value growth at 5.0% for nine months versus IPD
Benchmark 3.4%
- Outward yield shift of 53bps overall for the quarter (Offices 51bps,
Retail 55bps)
- Portfolio equivalent yield now 5.4%, 74bps higher since March 2007


* Net Asset Value(1) per share 1401 pence, down 16.7% for quarter

- IFRS Net Assets £7.1 billion
- Properties owned or managed £18.4 billion
- "Triple Net Asset Value"(2) per share 1437 pence


* Underlying pre-tax profit(3) £72 million for quarter, up 12.5% on Q3 2006

- IFRS loss on ordinary activities pre-tax £1,326 million (257 pence per
share, after tax)

* Underlying earnings per share(3) 14 pence for quarter, up 16.7% on Q3 2006

- Dividend 8.75 pence per share for this quarter, payable May, in
addition to 17.5 pence per share for the first half year (and
consistent with 35 pence full year target)


Business resilient:

- Occupancy exceptionally strong, portfolio 99% let(4), 14 years average
lease length
- £600 million of property sales (gross) since September 2007 at levels
supportive of current valuations
- Retail and Office developments with completions in 2007 and 2008 74%
pre-let, sold or under offer
- Debt 100% fixed rate at 5.28% average cost and 12.6 years average
maturity
- Gearing 45% LTV (49% including JVs/Funds)
- £2 billion committed undrawn bank lines available as opportunity arises


Investment market conditions:

- Outward yield shift of 75bps for IPD Index since March 2007, reflecting
investor repricing of risk across the board. Valuation declines largely
indiscriminate; should correct for relative value in coming months
- Speed of adjustment of valuations augers well for shortened duration
of downcycle
- Encouraging signs of investor interest in property at these levels;
however, sentiment still volatile

[losses] 01/2/2008 15:47

The property sector also performed well, as investors went bargain hunting,
while continued M&A speculation and rate cut hopes added to the interest.
Credit Suisse issued an upbeat note on property this morning, saying the
sector could rally 10 pct from current levels.
The broker reiterated its 'outperform' on Land Securities, with a target
price of 1,934 pence. The shares rose 24 pence to 1.617.
But it downgraded British Land to 'neutral' from 'outperform' and cut its
target to 1,172, from 1,603, citing concern about the office property market in
London. The shares fell 11-1/2 to 998-1/2.

[spob] 01/2/2008 10:25

From The Times February 1, 2008

AXA imposes six-month ban on investor withdrawalsMiles Costello
AXA became the latest victim of the crisis in the commercial property market yesterday as it imposed a six-month ban on investors withdrawing funds from its £2.1 billion portfolio. The move by the France-based investment manager, one of the biggest in Europe, affects 125,000 UK savers and investors with funds in AXA's two big property funds, worth £1.2 billion and £895 million, respectively.

The group said that, after a “significant increase” in customer withdrawals, it had begun to sell off properties to meet redemption payments. However, the slowdown in the market has meant that it can take up to five months for a sale to go through, prompting AXA to call a halt to withdrawals.

“Like many other companies, AXA has seen a significant increase in the level of withdrawals from its property funds which invest in commercial property, and we now have to sell properties in order to raise the cash to meet those withdrawals,” the manager wrote in a letter sent to customers yesterday.

“Because it can take several months to complete a property sale, we feel it is necessary to take temporary measures to ensure the fair treatment of all investors in these funds.”

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A spokesman said that AXA's property funds had been on a “watching brief” with its investment panel for “weeks, possibly months”. He said the move reflected the sharp slowdown in the investment markets for commercial property, which has forced other managers to bar the exit to investors, albeit temporarily.

At least seven other fund managers have suspended withdrawals on their property funds in the past three months. These include Scottish Equitable, New Star Asset Management, Threadneedle, Scottish Widows, Aegon, Close Investments and Friends Provident.

AXA said that it remained convinced that property continued to be a “solid long-term investment”.

[losses] 26/1/2008 13:33

On London: Early birds could get property worm
By Daniel Thomas
January 25, 2008 7:33:00 PM
 
With commercial property values still in freefall and property funds suffering savage liquidity problems, who would have thought that some of the best-performing stocks in a besieged London market would be the property companies.
The commercial property sector has yielded total returns of more than 5 per cent so far this year, supported by impressive performances from British Land, up 9.2 per cent, Hammerson, 12.2 per cent, and Brixton, up 12 per cent.
The rally is a clear sign of a rapid change in market sentiment from fearful to broadly optimistic, with many now predicting a swift end to losses and a wave of bargain hunting among canny investors.
What a difference a few weeks make. Last year was the worst on record for the property sector. Total returns from shares fell some 36 per cent in 2007, according to JPMorgan, with companies such as British Land trading at the end of the year at a discount to net asset value of more than 50 per cent.
"The downside risk is very limited at these levels," said Harm Meijer, analyst at JPMorgan. "We have seen a rotation out of vulnerable sectors into property, which at least offers solid income prospects."
Certain housebuilders have also seen a recovery after shares in the sector dropped 45 per cent in 2007.
Residential and commercial property values continue to come under pressure, but this, say analysts, has already been priced in and more. "The market had got itself in a frenzy," said Kevin Cammack, analyst at Kaupthing. "Trading updates have suggested that the market is tough but not in meltdown, particularly given the likelihood of interest rate cuts."
Mr Cammack warned this does not look like the housebuilder sector has turned a corner, however, and housebuilders remain among the most "shorted" stocks, according to Data Explorers.
But analysts predict there could be a more sustained bull run in the commercial property sector. Upbeat reports this week from Land Securities, Great Portland Estates and Helical Bar have helped shift sentiment further.
There is a broad expectation the market is quickly finding a floor after its savage de-rating.
Average initial yields – the combination of the rent and capital values – are at 5.2 per cent and rising, moving above the five-year "swap" rate of 4.8 per cent at which most property loans are priced. This suggests property is once again self-financing.
Lending margins remain wide and the loans as a proportion of values have been lowered, but investors report funds are still available.
This is most clearly highlighted by the money being raised by so-called "opportunity" funds. There has been more than £10bn pledged in the last few weeks by a wide range of well known property investors. "We may not call it an opportunity fund but we can get our hands on up to £500m if we wanted," said Mike Slade, chief executive of Helical Bar, who predicted buying would begin in earnest in the second quarter.
There are more investors, including sovereign wealth funds, said to be waiting to return.
"All at once, the recovery story stacks up," said Mike Prew, analyst at Lehman Brothers, adding that equity investors were seeing a "cheaper way" into property by buying real estate investment trusts at deep discounts.
Mr Prew points to the three per cent stake the Singaporean government recently built in British Land as an example. Elsewhere, Laxey Partners, the shareholder group, is looking to raise up to £1bn to buy discounted property shares.
The rationale behind Laxey's fund is not only that shares are cheap, but that this will lead to widespread consolidation.
Even if corporate buyers wait until values have stabilised, early bird investors may find themselves with bargains before the end of the quarter.

[spob] 24/1/2008 08:11

Great Portland warns over turbulence

Jim Armitage, Evening Standard

23 January 2008, 9:27am

Real estate developer Great Portland Estates today warned of a year of turbulence in the investment property market and said the values of its portfolio was falling sharply.

In the quarter to the end of December, its net asset value per share fell 6.5% to 617p as the credit crunch crimped demand for new properties and hit efforts among buyers to find loan financing for their deals.
'Investment market turbulence is forecast to continue, particularly for poorly located, secondary properties and rental growth rates are expected to moderate,' the company said in a statement.

Great Portland specialises in central London office investment and development. It said the West End remained in high demand from business tenants. Rental values grew in the district by 3.7% during the quarter, boosting the company's overall rental growth value.

Also on the plus side, vacancy rates were falling thanks to robust demand, it said. Meanwhile, Colliers CRE, the property agency, said its investment property arm had suffered a 'marked downturn' in activity in the fourth quarter as the number of completed transactions fell sharply.

However, Colliers CRE said it had been protected somewhat by its diversification into other areas such as Spanish estate agency, and professional services.

'The key determinant of our performance is the volume of activity in real estate markets, not the absolute levels at which the are priced and our markets, other than UK investmnet, remain robust and active.'

[sllab101] 21/1/2008 16:55

Losses,sorry mate I posted a chart on here only to find I ment to post it on this board.

[losses] 21/1/2008 14:31

did u say something sllab101?

Barratt Developments Barratt says housing market conditions have not deteriorated since Nov UPDATE.

I know commercial market is in another league but every little bit helps

[losses] 18/1/2008 18:49

Signs of life at property companies

Ceri Jones
16.01.08

The excitement that preceded REIT legislation, introduced in the UK with such fanfare last January, seems now to belong to a different age. In financial markets, oceans of water have passed under the bridge since those days of unbridled optimism.

The central tenet of REITs is that they are not subject to UK tax on property income and gains - those taxes are paid only by the investors in the REIT - so, unsurprisingly, property stocks that were expected to convert to REIT status enjoyed a real boost in the run up to the legislation's introduction, gaining a full 10% in December 2006. Most major property companies have now converted, taking the total to 18 stocks accounting for some 75% of the sector's capitalisation.

Almost inevitably, the property market immediately began to struggle. The initial sell-off at the start of 2007 was part profit-taking after the hype and part lack of demand for property at inflated prices. It was followed by blacker months as the credit crunch bit deeper, with the sector ending the year 40% down. In the last quarter, property fund redemption levels were so high that extended redemption periods and Market Value Adjusters have been imposed by funds groups such as Norwich Union, Friends Provident and Foreign & Colonial.

The property sector is now trading at a discount to NAV of 30-40%, compared with around 20-30% historically, and a number of respected players such as Schroder and veteran fund manager Antony Bolton have already called the bottom of the market.

There are some logical reasons for discounts, apart from simple over-selling. A discount reflects at least partially the fact that property company stocks are forward looking vehicles, valued for their future potential, whereas bricks and mortar itself is valued retrospectively. Property stocks should also arguably trade at a premium because the management should be capable of adding value.
Tough to call
Usually, there is fairly good consensus at any given time about prospects for various property sectors, but this time the picture is difficult to fathom and opinion about sectors is divided.

Most of the problems have their origins in the credit squeeze. Office space in Canary Wharf and Docklands will be vulnerable if big City firms continue to lay off staff, but the recent downsizing is largely limited to the investment bank giants whose debt teams are mostly housed in the US. The same generalisations cannot be made of Mayfair and St James's, the territory often associated with hedge fund offices, partly because hedge funds tend to rent small square footage.

The credit squeeze has also hit Christmas trading, but although retailing looks set to suffer the new patterns in consumer behaviour are not clear. While this Christmas was a record year for internet, no-one is sure how much of that was down to cold snap two weeks before the festivities and how much is wholesale broadband take-up, a one-off gear-change that is unlikely to be repeated on the same scale next year.
Heading out of town
Out of town shopping centres seem more protected, as they cater for the hardened shopper for whom a retail trip is a regular hobby and they also tend to have a better quality of tenant. Liberty International (LII) has a portfolio of top quality retail properties that include Lakeside and MetroCentre and focuses on out of town outlets so could be less vulnerable to a downturn.

"The risk is how much the market overcorrects," says Duncan Owen, CEO of Invista Real Estate Investment Management Holdings (INRE), who anticipates high single digit returns over the next three years. "If anything, commentators are being too bearish about the City and too bullish about the West End, where some tenants are locked into over-renting for the first time in 17-18 years."

But John Burns, CEO of design-led Derwent London (DLN), says that on the contrary he has re-let a property in Fitzrovia at £60 per sq ft compared with the £57.50 it went for in June. "The key here is the availability of space in the West End with its strict planning regime," argues Burns.

Derwent specialises in design innovation, taking derelict warehouses and unloved office blocks and transforming them state of the art landmarks just outside the West End and the City in areas such as Fitzrovia and Islington. For instance, it bought The Tea Building in Shoreditch for £22 million in 2000 and gave it a £6 million makeover, nearly tripling it value.
Boost for warehousing?
Less debatably, sustained growth in internet shopping would boost industrial warehousing. Industrial warehouse developer Brixton (BXTN) has spent January buying the assets of redemption-hit funds such as New Star at a discount.

Brixton is also a frontrunner in a joint venture with warehouse specialist Prologis to buy the BAA's Airport Property Partnership from owners Ferrovial and Morley Fund Management.

Discount buying has also been the order of the day at Rugby Estates (RES), which has just acquired three highly diverse portfolios at a reasonable price. While most property companies specialise in a sector, Rugby Estates, floated last April, focuses on picking up family portfolios with a wide spread of properties by both size and use, which its peers have no taste for.

Such properties are often well located on recession-resilient primary sites with a broad tenant spread. For example, one recent £180 million deal bought with it 100 tenants so one tenant failure would have little impact on the portfolio's overall returns.

Andrew Wilson, chief executive, reckons that £50 billion of private property companies exists in the UK. "It is staggering to us how many second or third generation property companies have had a conversation with us," he says. "We'd never heard of many of them."

In the US, residential property REITs are the most popular sector. The UK property industry is working on overcoming the remaining barriers to these, according to Dave Butler, programme co-ordinator at REITA, so now might be the time to tuck away a residential specialist such as Grainger (GRI).

[spob] 18/1/2008 12:46

I have an issue with the above

We have had a boom in CP sector for how many years

so after just 1 down year we are expected to beleive that is the end of it and now the boom will resume ?

It doesn't work like that.... does it ?

[losses] 18/1/2008 11:32

copied from MAY thread

Property stocks 'will rally by 20 per cent in first half'
Published: 18 January 2008

Shares in listed property companies will rally by at least 20 per cent in the first half of this year, analysts at Morgan Stanley forecast yesterday, arguing that the state of the sector is "so bad, it's good". The report provided welcome respite for bombed-out property stocks, which rose sharply following its publication.

[losses] 18/1/2008 11:29

Interesting spob.

I'm still in and will add on any weakness

[spob] 18/1/2008 08:15

Exit delay for property investors

Commercial property can take a long time to sell
A rush to withdraw money from its commercial property funds has forced Scottish Equitable to introduce delays of up to 12 months for its customers.
It affects investors in the Scottish Equitable Property fund, Select Reserve fund and Select Distribution fund.

Aegon UK, which runs the fund, blames the rush to the exits on concerns about the US sub-prime mortgage collapse, recession worries and interest rates.

Friends Provident took the same action with its property fund last month.

Regular income payments, retirements and death claims will not be affected.

As real estate can take months to sell, property funds keep a proportion of their assets in cash to pay any investors who want to leave.

But if unexpectedly large numbers of investors want to withdraw their money the fund can be forced into selling property cheaply because they need a quick sale.

"The level of withdrawals from our property funds has reached the stage where we now have to sell properties to raise cash to meet the requests for payments out," the company confirmed.