Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/7/2008 12:04

Firming up - looks like the next up leg on the chart starting.

Making higher highs now.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/7/2008 14:22

Yep, chart bereaking out too - which is a nice positive here.


CR

[eacn] 23/7/2008 12:26

CR, for what its worth I broadly share your confidence. Technically this looks like a decent entry point and 350p is certainly possible with 6 to 9 months.

[cockneyrebel] 23/7/2008 09:12

Frauddy - the market cap is £450m. (edit - 525m - price has risen since I last calculated).

At the Q1 results LRE said this:

Richard Brindle, Group Chief Executive Officer, commented:

'I am extremely pleased to report a very strong performance by Lancashire. In
the first quarter the industry suffered a number of severe property risk losses.
Lancashire is a major insurer in this sector. It is therefore a great
testament to our underwriting team that Lancashire has produced a 39% loss ratio
in such a challenging period. Our estimated loss from the property risk events
in the first quarter is between $20 and $25 million, gross and net. In the
context of losses in this sector estimated at up to six billion dollars,
together with cat losses of approximately three to four billion dollars, this is
solid evidence of our underwriting strength.''Losses from the credit crisis are accelerating. The investment markets are
rightly cautious about the financial consequences for insurers writing D&O or E&
O risks, or holding investment classes suffering material write-downs.
Lancashire is not one of these companies. We do not write insurance classes
exposed to credit crisis losses and we maintain a particularly unadventurous
investment portfolio. We made the decision in late 2007 to exit all non-agency
structured product sectors. The carnage of the first quarter confirmed that was
absolutely the right thing to do. Investors should take great comfort that our
balance sheet is stronger than ever.'

----------------

Go figure!

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/7/2008 09:01

Frauddy - you are a troll - why not listen to the webcasts on their website at the results point and get a feel for the business and the guys running it?

CR

[ydderf] 23/7/2008 05:17

crookney they have 1,2 bn of investments, what do you think has happened to the value of them over the past few months.......? whatever you think (or appear not to think, judging by your concentration on eps), the market is rightly suspicious - they could allay these doubts and fears by a proper description of where the money is invested (like for example UBS), but they don't.........i wonder why?

you are a a scalper and gambler and dishonest about your losses - why don't you reform and post the size, price and history of your punting in this gambling chip?

I notice you were in them last year much higher up......no mention of what happened, no doubt your houdinied out of them with perfect hindsight, sorry timing.....lol

[cockneyrebel] 22/7/2008 17:45

maybe not but very cheap however you slice and dice it.

They have bought back 5% of the co shares in a quarter and are committed to doing that as rates are less favourable. Not going to do business for business sake and very de-risked in the way they do business.

At 50p eps these would be cheap imo and there's always the liklihood of a special divi that they have done in the past and alude to that they will do again.

I think 60p looks a safe bet and a PE of 5 with scope to beat, especially with the buy backs and as rates firm further out it could be rather nice.

CR

[wjccghcc] 22/7/2008 16:19

Don't think you can annualise the Q1 results given the drop in rates in the prop/cat sector.

Good company though.

[cockneyrebel] 22/7/2008 15:15

a lot of buying and the chart breaking out.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 22/7/2008 13:36

Back in today, PE 2.4 - 2.8 max, massive share buy backs (looks like they have bought back nearly 5% of the co shares in one quarter).

Q1 up 5% (20%+ annualised) after doing £1 a share last year and 5% less shares.

Saw these race north the plast time they put out results - next results in a fortninght - July 5th.,

CR

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2008 07:46

Been a great little performer lately - steady firm progress.

CR

[miamisteve] 21/5/2008 08:11

Buybacks will continue day in day out and the share price will then get a further boost from the 2 day roadshow to US investors at the beginning of June.

In the conference call a US fund manager who had invested in LRE called for a ADR'S US listing. If that were to transpire then I'd expect the share to rerate to around £5.

[martincc] 30/4/2008 14:32

Lancashire Holdings 305 up 20-1/2
Q1 results please; Numis 'buy' with 370 pence target

[miamisteve] 30/4/2008 11:33

Just listen to the cc.

neil brindle -described the share price as bizarre.

Company has an aim to move to full market.

A US investor asked for an ADR's listing in the states for tax reasons on the dividend also pointing out that large US value investors have been buying into the company.

warrants expire in 8 years so will not be a drag on the shareprice

Large private holders no longer significant and buy backs will be via the market most probably.

[cockneyrebel] 30/4/2008 10:17

Pretty cheap ah? I know it's the insurance sector but seems a decent buy imo. Not many on this rating.

Thanks mathew.

CR

[miamisteve] 30/4/2008 09:03

Agreed. Looking forward to the conference call later today.

Always good to see common sense prevail. This should settle around 330p by the end of the week and still be at a 20%-30% NAV discount to peer group.

[matthewa] 30/4/2008 09:03

CR - Another top call. Cheers gor heads up.

[eacn] 29/4/2008 20:41

A refreshingly frank set of results, with direct answers to all the major questions. On the face of it the share buy back program and the Q1 numbers should put the brakes on the share price downtrend that has been in place since Nov 2007 (adjusting for the special dividend). That said, I am a novice when it comes to insurance stocks and others may know of factors which will continue to weigh on the share price

All imo, DYOR etc. I hold this share

[miamisteve] 29/4/2008 17:46

45¢ eps in Q1.

Reassuringly cautious approach and no potential sub-prime exposure.

$100m buy back program will support the share price and makes perfect sense while the company trades at 85% of book value.

[cockneyrebel] 29/4/2008 17:34

Results out after the close.

22.8p eps in Q1.


90p a share annualised - pretty good I'd have thought :-)

CR

[miamisteve] 28/4/2008 12:02

Have taken a sizeable position here. Hope that selling pressure is unrelated to any leak.

Underwritten premiums should be down around 12-14%.

And expect some further assurances on sub-prime investment exposure.

[miamisteve] 25/4/2008 11:52

Ugly L2 with 170k sell order at 290p.

Someone wants out before Q1 results.

[cockneyrebel] 14/4/2008 12:14

A breakout coming if this keeps up

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/4/2008 10:51

miamisteve.

Too many to list I'm afraid, I'm a share kleptomaniac!

Quite a lot of interesting stuff around tho.

GVC and RNWH look quite interesting at the moment, seems to be private equity co's and active investors taking large stakes.

LRE - bit of stock about but I think these will be firm on the run to results and conference call at the end of the month.

Decent director buying here recently too.

CR