Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[broshm] 08/12/2010 10:33

what has happened ? +600,000 sell on 6th ,what is going on ?

[rlindsey2] 26/11/2010 08:30

Yes I do agree it may take a while to recover, which like you say is shown in the past, but if still doesn't really move lower than the ammount given away in the divident which is always good.

[scott2000] 25/11/2010 21:40

Hi and thanks for the comments.

In 2008, the share price took 8 months to recover. In 2009, 4 months.

It's hard to see how you can lose with this share though in the medium term, other than a major disaster somewhere. Perhaps that's why it's not a "hot stock" - it's seen as a bit of a gamble?

I intend to sit tight and be patient. The historic performance of the company has been outstanding.

[rlindsey2] 25/11/2010 18:01

Hi scott, I obviously agree that this will drop the amount paid out to us, so the 86p or so. but I do not believe it will drop further, as you may have realised from other non-life insurance companies but if not then my reason for disagreeing with you is that, if you look at the past year or two of this share price, its an uptrend, with no correlation to the general market, then look at amlin (AML) You will also see there share price hasnt followed the market trend, and aswell as caitlin (cgl). I believe the reason for this is that it isn't traded by the same people that trade in the ftse 100 and stocks like that, due to its not rated a 'hot stock' which everyone knows about. you can see that by the low volumes and the fact that the bb's are quite.
But i do agree the share price will fall between 85-95p on the ex-divi date, and then just stay at that price for a while, obviously this is only if no negative RNS's at the time to drive it lower. And also, there might be people wanting to buy into this company, but wont want to yet because of the fact that they are waiting for the ex divi day to go and be paid.
Do you think thats a valuable reason? any thoughts to educate me more would be much obligued

[ph1ts] 25/11/2010 08:25

I think you are probably right Scott, but it does also seem to recover after the drop, so it just depends whether you can be patient.

[scott2000] 24/11/2010 21:04

I bought into this company at 595p attracted by the special dividend. Obviously the stock will drop significantly once it is ex-dividend. I am concerned that the fall will be significantly greater than the amount of the special dividend given the drops in the wider market that this share has essentially been shielded from because of its special dividend attraction. Any views would be welcome.

[ph1ts] 24/11/2010 15:35

What you might call an up and down day!

[nailtop] 22/11/2010 08:08

Thanks rlindsey2.

[rlindsey2] 21/11/2010 15:45

Yes basically, Just take the years earnings, i think it was about £270 million or around that last year, then multiply that by the P/E ratio of say 15, and that would give you an average market cap. But don't forget that companies don't normally get high P/E ratio's untill the so called boom years, so like 4/5 years away, but still that gives you great returns.
Also if you was to try and work out a valuation for the company, don't take the last years earnings to work it out, either take an average over the last 5 years or a predicted one for this years. So say if you was to have an education guess for this years overall profit after tax, it would be somewhere maybe around £180-200 million then multiply that number. That then gives you a market cap, then divide that by the shares in issue.
So from that basis, a P/E ratio of 4.65 is low.

[nailtop] 21/11/2010 12:55

Listed above the P/E is 4.65
So if the average p/e for the sector is say 15
the share price would have to triple to reach
this p/e ??

[rlindsey2] 19/11/2010 18:16

Hi MarkRogers88, No there is no reason for it, just the fact that this isn't a share that is well known so isn't a 'hot stock', which values it at a very good price, in my view anyway.
Most companies dueing/after a recession normally have relatively low P/E ratio's anyway because of lack of trading in the markets, but when there are boom years then shares do tent to do have high P/E ratio's.
The fact that a company has a low P/E ratio isn't something to bother you, it should rather attract you because then it has margin to grow. Such a company with a P/E ratio of 40 would look overvalued. If you wanted a rough ratio to go by to see if it is valued fairly, then a P/E ratio of around 10-15 would give you room to see attractive growth.
If you would want to look at it from another angle, then say you was to buy a company, then the P/E ratio would show you how many years (if the earnings were sustainable) it would take you to get your money back from paying for the company. So obviously that way, you can easily see that a company with a P/E ratio of say 10 would look much more attractive to buy than a company with a ratio of around 40.

[markrogers88] 19/11/2010 13:39

How come the P/E ratio is at such a discount for LRE? Or am I missing something obvious? Thanks in advance.

[ph1ts] 10/11/2010 12:52

Thanks for the balanced views rlindsey.

[rlindsey2] 09/11/2010 22:41

I'm long term holder so don't have a clue what to expect short term sorry. If I was to guess though I would say a fluctuation from 590 and 615. But like I say that's a pure guess, but if you look at past movements your see that after the special dividend is paid the share price normally starts its gains from there as long as there is no negative news.

[thorpematt] 09/11/2010 21:03

Anyone got particular targets on SP?

Or is everyone a long term holder..

[rlindsey2] 09/11/2010 18:43

yes very good results, phits, there will be a big drop when the special divi ex day so why not asses the situation as it might be a good time add more funds then.
You lot probably did heard on the call yesterday lunch time, but if not I'll just repeat what was said, that since inception 4 or so years ago this company has given back about 116% of the company's value to shareholders, which is really outstanding. He then went on to say that if they 'needed to call back money from the shareholders in the future hopefully they wont mind' as they have given so much value back.
So I'm guessing they mean that if there was an unsuspecting event which happens they might not have the funds and will have to place more shares on the market which is reasonable as they have been making us so much money anyway.

[ph1ts] 09/11/2010 13:17

Bought in yesterday. Only wish I'd had more money available to buy more! Still very low volume considering.

[woody6] 08/11/2010 17:03

great results again aand a special divi.

[rlindsey2] 25/10/2010 16:15

I can across this share the other week and I have also asked myself the same question qipincha, I have no idea why its so cheap but my onlyu guess is that not many people know about it due to it being a reasonably new share and for that reason makes it a great time to buy I would think.

[qipincha] 07/8/2010 20:19

hi, I am new to this stock. can anyone explain why this is so cheap? Thought the EPS is 220c+ ?

[ibudge] 06/8/2010 16:39

Agree. Chart was looking great. Have we just seen a lot of immediate profit taking after results with possible resumption of upward trend or is this a reversal? This pre tax profit vs market cap indicates this is still a cheap share, so in my personal opinion the reversal is unlikely unless interest in the share subsides and volumes fall off.

Looking for a more stable share price on Monday or Tuesday.

[thorpematt] 06/8/2010 16:00

P.S I note no-one posted a link to yesterday's TS



Personally I was looking for a buying op. and it's a tricky chart IMO to guage

[thorpematt] 06/8/2010 14:46

PROBABLY nothing. This one does move around a bit...

[ibudge] 06/8/2010 13:02

What happened today? I can see no good reason for the panic selling, have I missed something?