Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[lonrho] 02/4/2014 08:35

well I have just bought some at 667 so hope you're right.

[woodcutter] 02/4/2014 08:29

waiting for the share price to level off before adding. Appears to be good potential support at 660p.

WC

[jgoold] 02/4/2014 06:51

For those wondering about Lancashire's approach to special divis, the attached is a quote from their latest presentation (post the Cathedral acquisition):

So when wouldn't Lancashire pay a special dividend?
• After a major loss event where we can deploy additional capital opportunistically into dislocated markets for good returns. In 2011/12, after a series of worldwide cat losses, we held back capital in Q4 12, but then paid out an additional dividend in Q1 13. It would take a much bigger loss or series of losses to eliminate the special dividend.
• Financial chaos, as in 2008, where both equity and debt markets were effectively shut to us, so we need to retain capital in case of an opportunity.
With Lancashire UK and Bermuda, Cathedral and Kinesis we have a full range of balance sheet options to deploy capital most effectively. But the commitment to repatriate surplus capital is unchanged. Conversely, we would raise capital in the right circumstances, as demonstrated by recent debt and equity issuances.

[salpara111] 01/4/2014 19:54

Not sure what to do now, well under water and the share price just dropping day after day regardless of the general market.

[woodcutter] 26/3/2014 10:23

took a holding here this morning. looks well undervalued compared to it's peers particularly on the combined ratio metric. Solid dividend and the cathedral purchase giving access to lloyds will, over time, look to have been a solid purchase. The current wave of bad news floods, snow etc is most likely already in the share price going forward.

aimho woody

[salpara111] 19/3/2014 13:39

Divi of 10p today.....sp down 25 at present :(
As a well underwater holder I am not sure if I should just cut and run given their own outlook for 2014.

[falklands] 13/2/2014 12:05

Market Overreaction if lre had not bought cathedral payouts would have been around the same however it's strong going forward the amount of money cathedral and fund side brought in will be bumper in 2014.

See article above

Lastly look at cash extra $110m holding back should be div but high cash at $405 last year was $295

[salpara111] 13/2/2014 12:00

I wish I could be so optimistic and clearly the market is looking at 2014 not being a good year or the share price would not be marked down so heavily.
I am guessing that the market does not expect them to be able to hold the line on divi payouts as the current yield is probably the highest in the FTSE 250.

[falklands] 13/2/2014 11:53

See Chrisoil twitter article on Lancashire holdings

[falklands] 13/2/2014 11:44

Remember sal cathedral numbers only started on nov 7 so this year will be a bumper as long as they don't buy anymore companies !

Furthermore the cost savings from lloyds start in march and hopefully the losses will end with the costa $150 burn for the last few years per annum

[salpara111] 13/2/2014 09:10

My main problem with the idea of topping up is the management statement that focuses on how 2014 is going to such a difficult year for them.
I do think that they are a really well run outfit but I tend to look at 2-3 year investment horizons, the reason being that the typical fund manager only holds a stock for an average of 3 years so it is good to have a mindset similar to them.
The payout was always going to be slashed given the fact that they used a big lump of cash to acquire Cathedral

[speedsgh] 13/2/2014 09:04

salpara111 - reckon one needs to take the long view with LRE + judge your investment over a c5yr period. due to their policy (low fixed interim/final dividends supplemented by flexible special dividends), distributions are erratic with some excellent years + some less so. having said that full payout in FY2013 is $0.80 which is their lowest in the last 5yrs, yet it is still yielding c6.7% based on the current share price so maybe a good opportunity to top up + average down? LRE will be a sound income investment over the long term imo, even if one's average is somewhat above the current share price level. aimho.

[salpara111] 13/2/2014 08:30

Well, when I bought these last year at 820 I thought this would be one of my safest investments but so far it has turned out to be my worst performing stock and that is including the divis....very disappointed and not sure if I should just take my loss and leave.

[falklands] 13/2/2014 08:14

Asking some today it's clear the the div reduced one off due to cathedral takeover however going forward should be higher than 2012 with cathedral.

If you see the last 4q the profit and income is higher than 4q in 2012

So all in all good for 2014 however not sure why special div was reduced to this level.

All will be revealed in the webcast

[speedsgh] 07/2/2014 12:03

naughty boy? i am long here so am hoping for good news when they report final results in the next couple of weeks.

p.s. has nobody ever told you that it is illegal to go around smelling naughty boys?

[falklands] 06/2/2014 22:11

Really and west house said £820 on the same day I smell naughty boy

[speedsgh] 05/2/2014 09:30

LRE downgraded to Reduce by Nomura


"Nomura also has issued a series of ratings on insurers, lifting Hiscox to Buy, while cutting Lancashire Holdings to Reduce and Catlin Group to Neutral."


"Lancashire Holdings Ltd (LON:LRE) was downgraded by research analysts at Nomura to a "reduce" rating in a report released on Wednesday, AnalystRatingsNetwork.com reports. They currently have a GBX 695 ($11.42) target price on the stock, down from their previous target price of GBX 848 ($13.94). Nomura's price objective points to a potential downside of 7.21% from the company's current price.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Barclays reiterated an "underweight" rating on shares of Lancashire Holdings Ltd in a research note to investors on Tuesday. Separately, analysts at Canaccord Genuity cut their price target on shares of Lancashire Holdings Ltd from GBX 780 ($12.82) to GBX 750 ($12.33) in a research note to investors on Friday, January 31st. They now have a "hold" rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at Westhouse Securities reiterated a "neutral" rating on shares of Lancashire Holdings Ltd in a research note to investors on Thursday, January 30th. They now have a GBX 820 ($13.48) price target on the stock. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, ten have assigned a hold rating and five have issued a buy rating to the company. The stock currently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and an average price target of GBX 821.38 ($13.50).

[undervalued companies] 04/2/2014 12:51

sal the total markets tanked the only good aspect is the fact its paying you the best divident you can get while you wait plus very low pe of 8 which is far lower than hiscox or sector .

More to the point the dividend protects the share price on downside. Will break out of the trading 740 to 815 when either interest rates go up or more business is gained

[salpara111] 04/2/2014 09:02

Seriously hoping that the next update will do something to get the share price out of this 2 year funk and put me back to at least b/e!

[undervalued companies] 27/1/2014 16:38

The most important aspect was the fact a lot of the cost savings and extra business through lloyds would not happen till march due a waiting approval of the llyods name in the merger if i recall so earnings will increase in the Q2. However the reduced dividend last time of money held back should make a bumper dividend soon.

[undervalued companies] 27/1/2014 16:29

Even my commercial property fund started to move back ho ho ho

Lancashire doing ok lets see the breakdown in next results the fall mainly happened due to flooding uk and snow in america etc but to be fair i am not sure how much is claimed with lre.

The flip side to all this is premiums will have to go up.

As always lancashire is mainly for the dividends on a very low pe compared to its sector and as a whole. However once interest rates start going up the share price will double due to the sector used to make half its earnings every year out of the interest rather than underwritting. Cannot say what will happen to property with mortages twice the percentage rates they are now.

[salpara111] 20/1/2014 12:43

Still moving sideways..still hoping that I might actually make a profit at some point....clearly I made a poor timing decision getting in after the large payout last year as I am still underwater even after including the most recent payout.
The Tsunami of cheap money washing around the globe is seriously screwing up a lot of industries but I guess the flip side of that is that my central London apartment has shown ridiculous value increases in the last few years.

[augustus1] 20/12/2013 18:14

Yes, taking the recent dividend into account - not so bad

[dennisten] 20/12/2013 14:57

It's looking a little better for xmas.