Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 29/5/2014 11:49

Lancashire may be cheap but its future is uncertain -

[sirhedgealot] 29/5/2014 11:16

I don't know. They had some dilution in warrants so no opinion etc. Hope this keeps getting cheaper. Gla.

[stansmith3] 28/5/2014 18:06

Anyone know any reason for the uptick today?Thanks.

[lavagrouch] 22/5/2014 21:00

On what basis is there support @ £6?

[bulltradept] 22/5/2014 09:09

Support @ £6.00 if it gets there..

[sirhedgealot] 15/5/2014 11:38

Then, down we go. I'm waiting..

[lonrho] 15/5/2014 10:12

yes sold the founder warrants that he acquired at $5 dollars a share on the 7th may, think he still owns over 150k shares. Not a good sign but the FD kept most of the option shares she acquired the other day which gives a bit of comfort.

[speedsgh] 15/5/2014 09:43

Nice vote of confidence by NED... not! Sold £566k worth of shares. Chart now looking very weak. Can't see much support around these levels. Will be happy to add for the long term but not until the current downtrend has played out.

[sirhedgealot] 06/5/2014 20:30

Sorry to hear about your loss, may you be strengthened by the circumstances.

[salpara111] 06/5/2014 11:24

Exited for a pretty hefty loss.
I have to say that I really did not expect this pretty rapid decline over the last year.
As some point the rates environment will turn in their favour and it will probably be worth re-entering then.

[speedsgh] 02/5/2014 08:45

Lancashire is all adversity and no triumph, says Peel Hunt

Insurer Lancashire (LRE.L) is failing to impress Peel Hunt analysts with a slew of adverse developments.

Analyst Mark Williamson retained a 'hold' and put the target price under review from its previous marker of 893p. The shares were down 23p, or 3.3% at 677p yesterday.

Even though first quarter result were in line with expectation, they were overshadowed by the shock departure of chief executive Richard Brindle.

'The sudden and unexpected departure of Richard Brindle comes at an odd time for the group given the significant shift in strategy embarked upon last year which has seen the group move form a single strategy – based on underwriting the top layers of risk – to a three-pronged strategy, with Lancashire continuing...[to underwrite]...lower layers of risk...and acting as a manager of third party capital,' he said.

'Moreover, underwriting performance is overshadowed by prior period adverse developments and this is starting to occur too often. Given the uncertainties that currently exist, we maintain a "hold" recommendation.'

[speedsgh] 01/5/2014 12:06

Salpara111 - Whilst my current average is a little (but not far) under your 810p, I understand your unease at the current share performance; it's never nice to have to nurse a paper loss whatever the size. Individual requirements will always mean that we all have different investment timescales. Fortunately I am able to look pretty long term so am happy to accept the (hopefully temporary) paper loss for now + enjoy the distributions until the share price (hopefully) sorts itself out. Good luck with whatever course you take. It's always good to share one's experiences (good or bad); it's what these boards are for. Best regards.

[salpara111] 01/5/2014 11:10

Little point in being in an "income" stock if your capital is being destroyed at 3x the rate of your income which is the situation I am in, having bought last year around 810p.
Insurance is cyclical and unfortunately we do not seem to be at the bottom of the pricing cycle yet.
The p/e is very undemanding and there is a good divi but the market is taking serious chunks out of the share price which means there is little point in being invested.
I am looking to move my holding from here over to Lloyds which seems to be recovering strongly.

[woodcutter] 01/5/2014 10:35

we are most likely coming to the end of a bull market, indeed many stocks are already in their consolidation phase and valuations in mid and small caps are looking very stretched. The future earning growth for many of these stocks is already priced in so the risk reward is very much biased toward risk. Indeed a number of the stocks i've been following are beginning to miss earnings targets.

Although the LRE share price has dropped recently this is the most opportune time to top up your holding, these are the kind of stocks everyone will be migrating to once the correction takes place, just to get the yield. So with a little consideration we may not get hurt so badly in the correction sell off indeed we may even see the share price hold or rise a little as everyone becomes a buyer.

I've been adding regularly now on every dip at 680p and below, after an initial purchase at around 700p. It won't ever be a 10 bagger but the market is changing and soon enough everyone will be searching for income rather than growth imho.

Woody

[speedsgh] 01/5/2014 10:02

Salpara111 - I assume that you are invested in LRE for the income? LRE, like many other insurers, is a stock where you have to take the rough with the smooth imo. Some years you will get bumper double digit % distributions (mainly via special divs), others will be far less inspiring, depending on the insurance markets + the company's capital requirements at any given time. I suppose over the long run it should all even out with hopefully a gradual increase in the long term average distribution helping to support a slowly rising share price.

I agree that there was little of excitement in today's rns but i was reassured by this: "with no indication of any change in trading conditions, it is likely that we will return a substantial portion of our earnings later in the year".

Looking at the long term chart, the share price did pretty well trebling from late 2008 to its peak in Q1 2013. After that run I suppose a period of consolidation/retracement was inevitable/healthy? It's definitely in a downtrend at present but hopefully won't last too long once the financial benefits of the changes begin to clearly filter through. In the meantime it should be a good opportunity to average down. That's how I'm approaching it anyway. Aimho.

[salpara111] 01/5/2014 09:46

Rather disappointing results, I was hoping that today would be the day that they finally turned around their losing streak but that does not appear to be the case.
Having said that the business does seem well managed and trades on a pretty undemanding multiple so I am inclined to hold as I have nowhere else that I feel is a better home for the money right now.

[painter] 16/4/2014 23:50

Ever heard of Americans p49b? Don't try eating a whole one!

[p49b] 16/4/2014 14:52

Can anyone shed light on why share price is falling since approx 230pm,has something
happened since rns this morning?

[woodcutter] 16/4/2014 07:42

he's in his fiftees with sufficient wealth to enjoy the remainder of his life after building a strong commercial business you can understand him wanting to enjoy the fruits of his labour!

WC

Post Note: This won't have been an impulse decision it will have been planned at least 6 to 12 months in advance if not more. Alex Maloney will most likley have been managing the business as CEO heir apparent for sometime imv. So the reaction to todays news seems rather silly.

[woodcutter] 16/4/2014 07:35

added this morning. Doesn't seem to be any underlying problems with the business or any sinister reasoning for his departure. His succesors have been in the business many years so they're well immersed in the culture.

typical market over reaction

it's very good opportunity to add imv.

Woody

[salpara111] 16/4/2014 07:14

Well, I Have mixed feelings.
I do think that he was a decent manager but not sure about their strategy more recently and the market has been less keen on it.
Clearly the market liked him.
I am well underwater so will hold to see if the upcoming results can produce some sort of turnaround.

[stevetk] 16/4/2014 06:19

This worries me. Richard Brindle was Lancashire. It's like Virgin loosing Richard Branson.

[woodcutter] 07/4/2014 13:39

Broker Deutsche out with a buy note and price target of 808p revision on previous 826p

[salpara111] 02/4/2014 18:41

I really struggle to understand the valuation given that it currently trades on a single digit p/e which is considerably lower than most of its major competitors.
I am a holder from 820 so clearly not happy but not willing to add either while it is in freefall.
Unless there is a pretty dramatic fall in profits this year the share price is considerably undervalued, I guess we will just have to wait and see what the next update brings as I am not inclined to sell and take a loss right now.

[soi] 02/4/2014 09:18

also bought more at 667, one helluva drop recently.