Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 17/8/2014 18:19

Neil Woodford obviously likes the dividend history here !

[speedsgh] 11/8/2014 15:21

Seems that Neil Woodford is keen on LRE. Has taken a holding of over 5% of issued share capital.

[speedsgh] 08/8/2014 13:29

Lancashire downgraded after falling short again

Lancashire (LRE), the specialist insurer whose focuses include aviation, marine and terrorism risk, has been downgraded after poor interim results that show it is 'uncomfortable in its own skin'.

Peel Hunt analyst Mark Williamson downgraded his recommendation from 'hold' to 'sell' and lowered his target price from 643p to 583p. Shares were trading at 596.9p yesterday.

'Recent interim results did little to sooth our concerns, having again fallen short of expectations and resulting in our downgrading our December 2014 profit before tax forecasts by 20% to $189 million,' he said.

'While Lancashire is undoubtedly doing some sensible things, including buying more reinsurance protection, it appears to be struggling to find its place in changed market conditions, and we remain concerned by the abrupt departure of [founder and chief executive] Richard Brindle.'

[sirhedgealot] 08/8/2014 09:13

Catlin I mean!

[sirhedgealot] 08/8/2014 09:13

Wonderful news sir!

[ctrl alt europe] 05/8/2014 16:28

hxxp://valueandopportunity.com/2014/08/05/lancashire-group-isin-bmg5361w1047-the-uk-equivalent-of-buffetts-national-indemnity/

[sirhedgealot] 05/8/2014 15:03

I'm still holding fire.

[speedsgh] 05/8/2014 14:38

Will 600p provide support? I'm not convinced yet. Nonetheless the current trend will reverse sooner or later. Starting to look very tempting as an add to the long term income portfolio.

[woodcutter] 25/7/2014 08:35

Numis Securities has upgraded Lancashire Holdings from 'add' to 'buy' on the back of the stock's valuation discount to others in the sector following an in-line second quarter from the insurer.

"This is a satisfactory quarter from Lancashire, with a number of positives that should strengthen confidence in future earnings," said Analyst Nick Johnson. He said that a "significantly reduced share price" now means that the stock's valuation - shares trade at 8.9 times estimated earnings for 2014 - is now the lowest in the sector."

latest broker recommendations, last two days:

Duetsche buy...target 724p
Espirito Santo buy... target 780p
Numis buy...target 840p

Woody

[sirhedgealot] 24/7/2014 14:52

I will keep waiting. I do respect the brand and management they have built.

[woodcutter] 24/7/2014 11:22

From a TA perspective LRE is still in a downtrend channel but it's trading against the non-life index NMX8530, which is unusual, so at some point i would expect LRE to move in line with the index.

It was clear on the MACD and RSI indicators yesterday that there was a +ve divergence between price and indicators, this was confirmed by todays share price rise, with a solid engulfing candle (so far today)

It now needs to break the trend channel resistance of around 650p then resistance at around 660p to confirm a solid breakout from the down trend.

aimho. woody

[sirhedgealot] 24/7/2014 09:21

I agree with everything you said. I'm 28% in cash at the moment and hold company's well under book value in everything else except one or two key holdings.

[woodcutter] 24/7/2014 07:51

Of course there could always be a catastorphic event or a series of events that impact the dividend, that's the nature of insurance, but the likelihood of complete errosion is small and historically they've delivered on the special divi in some form.

Given the current market consolidation phase it's not easy to find stocks that are growth trending. Pretty much all sector indicies are range bound and consequently the constituent stocks are too, so you've got to trade peaks and troughs to make a return. The alternative in times like this is too look to high yield players and just keep adding on weakness.

I've held a few of my growth stocks and will add on weakness but sold pretty much most of my portfolio earlier in the year and am now looking at primarily income yield, whilst holding a significant amount of cash.

I'm inclined to keep buying on dips here untill we see a positive upturn in the general uk market. Companies who have significant overseas earnings are already beginning to deliver profit warnings for H2, stating currency headwinds, so income yield and preservation of capital seems a worthwhile strategy.

aimho

woody

[salpara111] 24/7/2014 07:38

Awfully long way to go for b/e for me but hopefully this can mark a turning point.

[sirhedgealot] 24/7/2014 07:20

I suppose the fundamental volatility is systemic to super-cat insurance. The seems to be a wide divergence in possible outcomes which the dividend and low valuation cannot compensate for beyond a certain point. I do not feel the valuation is really compelling at this point. But if i was managing a pension fund with a view to 5-10 years I'd probably add here.

[woodcutter] 24/7/2014 07:14

Pretty reasonable H1 if you ask me.

Assuming they do around 106 cents eps this year and they keep the standard divi at 5 cents and 10 cents for H1 and H2 then thats roughly a special divi of 91 cents or around 53p, total for year around 62p for a yield of around 10% at yesterdays close. You're not likely to see that at the bank or building society anytime soon.

puts them on as per of about 10 too.


"With the continued pressure on the trading environment, we expect to manage our risk levels accordingly. As ever, the balance of capital we hold will match the underwriting opportunities we foresee. If there are no major events, and no change in the market, it remains likely that we will return the majority, if not all, of our earnings to our shareholders later in the year."

Will watch closely and add on any weakness.

Woody

[specuvestor] 24/7/2014 07:13

Is that it? I bought these thinking I would be getting an annual dividend of 8% plus and they announced an interim dividend of a paltry 5 cents (3 pence).

Am I missing something?

[sirhedgealot] 21/7/2014 15:46

*checks the price

[dennisten] 18/7/2014 15:26

At £5.50 every man and his dog will be in.

[red ninja] 18/7/2014 15:11

£5.50 and I'm in.

[its the oxman] 18/7/2014 10:28

600p and I might buy. Getting very tempting as it looks to be pretty oversold.

[woodcutter] 19/6/2014 10:36

Trending down against the non-life index NMX8530 suggests possible correction

The gap up this morning was promising but it needs to break and stay above 660p imv.



woody

[woodcutter] 07/6/2014 12:30

big hitter on board, should make things interesting.

[sirhedgealot] 02/6/2014 08:54

Hard to value this stock