Kier Share Discussion Threads

[truthandnumbers] 06/3/2021 17:46

clay, you don't have to take up the rights if there's a rights issue. A lot of the time you can sell them and take the dilution. A big if as to whetehr it's a rights issue anyway. Could be a buy-in. Not uncommon for a shares to double post rights so if it was only one for one, you mgiht be no worse off. You just have to study the terms. Everyone on here will be shouting them anyway, if it comes to it. who even knows if kie will release a load of good news (sale of Kier Living, profits from H1, new equity buyer) to pump the price to £2 and have a rights issue at £1.50.

Just tons of speculation on here. Best to stay calm and see what the company comes up with instead of reacting to siren calls.. Ppl are usually wrong. If posters here had decent crystal balls they'd be multi-millionaires and wouldn't bother posting on here because they'd be too busy spending their money.

[zicopele] 06/3/2021 14:39

A one for one rights issue at 84p? In your dreams

[claymagnet] 06/3/2021 13:38

So, if its a rights issue, stock is diluted and I have to fork out more brass and it's worth less. If its an equity buy in what does that mean? Is there dilution? I presume i don't have to fork out if someone else is buying in?Davwal are you still holding?

[stdyeddy] 06/3/2021 12:55

joe, I'm sure you'll be happy to know that I don't mind you plagiarising my posts at all! Any help in getting this message across is much appreciated.

[kangaroo joe] 06/3/2021 10:04

Let's face it. This is really a £1bn business but currently valued at circa £150m. Businesses are fragile, after all, ask your local pub landlord!

So a £3.5bn turnover and 2% net profit (pre exceptionals of course -- and the CEO is suggesting in the last RNS that's all over now, OK fingers well and truly crossed).

Last year Davies (CEO) said increased competition for framework contracts might push that margin down a bit, but then kier managed a 2.5% profit in the next results. Also £3.5bn turnover was achieved in a Covid (recession) year.

So net profit is nominally £70m (say), but with a massive build programme for UK that is likely to be £4bn-upwards. Therefore net profits are conservatively in the range £80m to £100m.

A reasonable p/e might be 12. Enterprise value currently is £310m debt plus £150m market cap. Call it £450m. IF the equity buy-in OR rights issue (whichever it turns out to be) raises one for one (ie perhaps doubling the shares in issue) or £130m plus £115m from Kier Living sale, plus perhaps £35m half-year profit, the business could have practically no net debt and a share price that goes to £2 very quickly (a p/e of only 8 on £70m profits) and MUCH, MUCH higher on higher revenue and earnings! Bob's your uncle and Fanny's your aunt!

[stdyeddy] 05/3/2021 21:44

llloooooollll!!!! As if wolly! AS IF!! So, you keep doubling down on your initial short at 50p as the price goes against you, up and up, until you're at eight times your original stake, with breakeven at 73p and the price finally spikes upwards on this IG leveraged short by 30%, having already gone up four times, but you hang on -- OR SO YOU NOW CLAIM. There is no one here who believes you. No one. I'm very happy to see you claim it though, because it confirms irrevocably for me that you are a liar. Especially combined with the complete silence from you straight after the spike and for several days after, and your refusal to answer my questions. If you'd really maintained your short, you would've answered straight away and said, 'yep, still short'. But instead there was a long, embarrassed silence. You are fooling no one.

And all of that tells me why you are still here. It is nothing more than habit; you are a silly, silly troll, wasting your time on here. You are not an investor. That also explains why you are so poor at your trolling. You are a stupid person, intellectually challenged, genuinely thick, and you think that this board is a good use of your time. I feel sorry for you. You must be sad and lonely.

You are beginning to make me feel bad; it turns out that I'm baiting an intellectually sub-normal person!! And his false 'friend', sicko! I will look in on you two mongs later, perhaps Monday.

[zicopele] 05/3/2021 19:43

Why do you post Steddy....and so so long? Keep em short...please.

[sparty1] 05/3/2021 17:52

All supposition. I sit on the sidelines and await.

[wallywoo] 05/3/2021 17:04

Holding Kier costs me nothing! My ISA / shares collateral covers 100 percent margin on my short position. Average price of 73.5, so I fully expect to make a handsome profit in 2 months. As said many times after shorting Carillion and Interserve, shorting Kier seemed a natural follow on.


The weekly change of the share price is unimportant. It's where the share price will be once the financing and balance sheet is known that matters. As you say sometime in the next 6 weeks.


I have never seen a 150ish percent equity issue be anything other than a deeply discounted rights issue / debt for equity. It's highly unlikely that any funds (none of who have purchased any shares for 15 months) will take a large investment directly without a enforced RI. I doubt a raise of this size will be underwritten, leaving more doubt on its success. When the paper for cash fiasco starts the share price will fall like a stone.

[nowayout1] 05/3/2021 17:00

It's a kier forum only kier here

[nowayout1] 05/3/2021 16:58

Wow stdy an admission that kier is not worth investing in never thought that day would come

[stdyeddy] 05/3/2021 16:48

Also, wallysickle, why're you bothering to post here? I'm not telling you not to. It's your time. But why do you feel it's worth your time to post here? As a trade, Kier obviously cost you a lot of money last week. How come you're not concentrating on winning investments?

[stdyeddy] 05/3/2021 16:43

So we have finished the week exactly where the price started on Monday; 84p. Despite sicko and wally working their pants off, there has been no impact on the shareprice. Your trolling is pointless. And all the lies which you've previously told, wolly, about being short, still sit unanswered. You remain a pants-on-fire-liar. 🤣

Sicko, I'd have thought that someone of your age would find a more worthwhile occupation than posting pointless accusations on this little chatboard. I guess that losing an industrial tribunal against Kier did not teach you the lesson it should've done.

[zicopele] 05/3/2021 16:42

A cash raise of 100% of companies capitalisation is not a winning move for share price.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/3/2021 16:30

"everything's been said."

Finally, we can agree...

Have a nice weekend all. Well, mostly all.

🙄

[stdyeddy] 05/3/2021 16:25

Sicko, everything's been said. But you and wolly-pops continue with baseless supposition and outright lies. As for the equity raise; you don't know whether it's an equity buy-in or a rights issue or both. Only Davies, Kesterton and their paid advisers know. Each cash raising option will have a different effect on the shareprice short term. So you can carry on trying to scare off investors, but as you can see from the chart; you're not very good at it. No one cares about ancient history or your wild imaginings.

[stdyeddy] 05/3/2021 16:20

But wallzy IT IS A GAME YOU'RE PREPARED TO PLAY.

You used to bang on about your short and were very proud about getting in at 50p. Do you remember how you used to say it would go drip, drip, whoosh, while instead it went step-up, step-up, jump, rocket...?

Why don't you tell us how much you lost? I've asked you twelve times now and so have other people. You used to give us constant updates on your doubled down shorts and how you would make loads of money. And then boom! A spike to 97p and a wipe-out for you. Since then nothing. Your credibility here is completely shot unless you confess your loss.

And there's plenty of time to wait before we find out about Kier's next move. Six weeks, most likely.

[wallywoo] 05/3/2021 16:13

The trouble with you Stdy, is that you refuse to answer any questions on your own dealings but expect others to answer yours. That's not a game I am prepared to play.


I state the most likely effect a equity raise will have here. That's based on years of experience. You don't say that any other scenario is likely because you know mine is right.


Your strategy is to say I am lying, without actually stating what I am lying about. In deed any which way you can to discredit.


April is the time for results and the equity raise. By then my case will be proven and the share price much lower. Not long to wait. If anyone buys this rubbish in the meantime, and winges when the equity raise is announced, then you can't say you have not been warned.

[zicopele] 05/3/2021 16:11

Why do you bother Steddy? Your posts are so long too.

Shorter please and some substance would be just great ....not always ad hominem.

PS ....really looking forward to pay day in April.

[gixxer1] 05/3/2021 12:27

Well said Ontheforks