Kier Share Discussion Threads

[danny baker] 27/3/2019 08:32

I managed to pick up 5,000 shares yesterday at under 358p by lying in wait on the order book. KIE shares have lost over 28% of their value since 15th of March. This is despite Woodford buying to add to his holding. Last time the shares were at 360p they were a massive buy bouncing in a couple of weeks to over £5. Life's too short with this share to worry about the medium term or fundamentals like the absence of net tangible assets in the balance sheet. I'm looking to pick up more at sub 360p in anticipation of another crazy rebound in the share price.

[brexitplus] 25/3/2019 22:00

Itcm1

Good analysis.

[ltcm1] 25/3/2019 19:58

The way I see it is that Kier seem to be a jack of all trades yet master of none. They seem to have all the pain of these operations yet none of the quality.

Taking redevelopment of brownfield, housebuilding and modular buildings for schools and hospitals, in all these sectors we can all name companies that do it a lot better and more profitably because in all cases it is the entire focus of the competing company.

The other aspect of this is all these divisions must be competing for cash from top management which must be very frustrating for everybody. It might sound good in a bean counter meeting saying you can avoid cyclical declines by diversifying but the downside of that is you end up just not being much good at anything.

To me this looks a very sprawling operation with potential for huge cash flow yet constrained on the profit side because they are simply not best in class in the three sectors I mentioned above.

[gettingrichslow] 25/3/2019 19:20

Real fanboy stock this one. Tiny margins, troubled sector, emergency rights issue, terrible track record of BoD, poor governance etc etc. Red flags everywhere. Fanboys and lemmings only.

[minerve 2] 25/3/2019 16:24

Bought 2 tranches actually.

[minerve 2] 25/3/2019 16:20

The SKY IS FALLING DOWN!

LOL

[minerve 2] 25/3/2019 16:19

Bought another tranche before close.

[brexitplus] 25/3/2019 08:17

Down again!!! An acquaintance who works for Costain isn’t surprised.

[elcapital2018] 23/3/2019 10:24

biggest problem here, aside from the debt, is the small margin

[zicopele] 22/3/2019 20:03

Cold comfort that they are handed over. Wonder how much WIP those two are carrying


Lots, I suspect. That is the great wonder of construction. Anyone can make a profit.

Meanwhile Kier has broken under £4.

[minerve 2] 22/3/2019 16:38

"Then there is the A30 in Cornwall"

Handed over to client.

[engineer66] 22/3/2019 12:23

Several good posts. I originally sold because I though Kier lacked competitiveness e.g. to take on the likes of a Skanska either overseas or in UK. That’s still the problem. I dare say Kier have some good people, but the BoD does not look credible. While Kier chortle on about diversity, that does not exist in the BoD which to me looks incapable of taking charge of a major construction project or doing well on business development – acquiring a business, positioning, developing construction methods or dealing with customers.

Balfour Beatty seems to be coming round, even if it takes a very highly paid Leo Quinn to check the WIP. At least that’s necessary given its subjectivity in construction. I am taking an interested in this one again, so I have a read of the accounts - long suspected discontinued operations covered up wider problems. New CEO might be a breath of fresh air but it could take quite some this one out. So stick with Kier, or are their other possible businesses in civil engineering worth researching and there’s now the wider question that the whole of UK civil engineering/outsourcing is largely a spent force destined to shrink substantially. Is there any evidence prices for UK civil engineering work are more realistic and there is the work out there – any views?

[gettingrichslow] 21/3/2019 23:17

Only a few weeks ago Minerva was saying his 'primary investment objective is to not lose any money'! Baffling. It's as if he is making it up as he goes along.

[minerve 2] 21/3/2019 22:58

BP, Shell, Unilever?

LOL

Those are for laymen. You may as well just buy a tracker.

[zicopele] 21/3/2019 22:30

Enjoy averaging dow to under £2 Minerva.

Why would anyone buy Kier in SIPP rather than say BP, Shell, Unilever etc?

Bloodimindedness I reckon. Bad to love a share too much.

[minerve 2] 21/3/2019 21:38

I added to my SIPP earlier. I'm not trading. I have a hold horizon until at least 2021/22.

[danny baker] 21/3/2019 21:15

Tomorrow should be interesting. Either KIE will dip to the 360p support level or they'll bounce to 420-30p. That's the beauty of KIE - crazy unpredictable volatility. I bought a few today at 397p so either a boot filling opportunity awaits near 360p or a quick profit if Woodford et al start buying. Such a great trading share.

[zicopele] 21/3/2019 19:45

Here is a little interesting snippet about Balfour Beatty.

WIP greater than six months old is sent to Leo Quinn who intervenes personally in the contract management. No PM or QS wants to get a call from Leo Quinn. It will be a very uncomfortable conversation.

BB was on its knees five years ago. Now they adhere to strict cash management and the vultures are no longer circling.

Kier is very different. Overstating WIP is an easy cop out on a Kier job. Gets everyone off the hook.... at least temporarily.

Let the new guy worry about my WIP. I will be long gone.

Same thing goes for acquisitions. Who would buy a construction company which has been dressed up for sale? May Gurney was a disaster. They bought their jobs and dressed themselves up for sale..

Likewise with McNicholas which traditionally operates as a Tier2 subcontractor, often doing work for the Tier1 main contractors. Margins are tight and jobs cannot support big overheads.

Can you imagine the suits from Kier coming in and telling these guys that they have to adhere to a very expensive and cumbersome set of standards?

It is dressed up as compliance with CDM and best practice but really it is about power and imposing their procedures on the acquired company.

It just does not work. See the provision in the accounts for integration of McNicholas into Kier. That is just the beginning.

The guys at the top of Kier just don't understand construction. Accountants and financiers.....all of them.

[utyinv] 21/3/2019 18:40

Minerve2,

Re: To add, if private sector has nationalised philosophy then there is no benefit to privatisation.


I think you have faied to grasp my meaning, the Directors of Kier are displaying all the attributes of the Directors who once ran the Nationalised Industries. In fact I know of a few non execs and Senior Mgrs at Kier that used to work for the Nationalised Energy Sector, so I can guess the reasons for a disjointed BoDs.

Shame though, I really think that Kier is a good Engineering Company but sometimes even great Companies like football teams need to get rid of Managers that believe their way is the only way, though in reality their direction is full of indecision or bad decisions. In football analogy, Kier needs a Bill Shankly or Don Revie👍 Someone who knows how to direct and bring success.

Then my investment in Kier is sure to be safe 😂

[minerve 2] 21/3/2019 16:12

UtyINV

I don't believe in any ideology. I don't think the Tory ideology of privatise everything works. Neither do I believe that nationalising everything works.

I think a balance should be that essential services should be nationalised, nuclear power being one.

[minerve 2] 21/3/2019 16:08

UtyINV

"Could also reflect on the fact that many Directors of Kier have a Nationalised philosophy."

Yeah, sure, whatever, always on a good excuse.

To add, if private sector has nationalised philosophy then there is no benefit to privatisation.

Shot yourself in the foot old boy. ;)

[elcapital2018] 21/3/2019 15:40

grs. i didnt read your posts. i just assumed you were losing money as usual.

Well done if you have actually got something right. 800 was a better level though......those hedge funds arent often wrong you know sunshine!

[utyinv] 21/3/2019 15:19

Minerve2

Could also reflect on the fact that many Directors of Kier have a Nationalised philosophy.

Inefficient, wasteful and very very bureaucratical with the self opinionated belief that they know better than anyone else.

BTW if any future Labour Gov brought back into house all PFI contracts the shares you hold in Kier would be worthless.

So with someone who is so diametrically apposed to any form of Privatisation ( everyone has a right to express their opinion), why then do you hold shares?

[zicopele] 21/3/2019 15:09

10% falls two days in a row represents a lot of heat that investors can do without.

[minerve 2] 21/3/2019 12:59

Perhaps goes to show that privatisation ideology is a busted flush! LOL