Keywords Studios Share Discussion Threads

[dassera] 22/5/2024 06:54

There are three main defences to a charge of criminal insider dealing. These are that at the time of the offence, the accused:

- did not expect that the information would affect the price of the securities,
- reasonably believed the information had been disclosed widely enough to limit any
unfair advantage or
- *would have done what they did even without the information*

[the white house] 22/5/2024 06:51

Clueless & bittter at missing out...Purchase was 12 days before RNS. bids could easily have been all in the week prior to actual winner, or even round the table the day before as in any auction, a week after purchase. Talk before irrelevant, been here for years Better luck next time

[scepticalinvestor] 22/5/2024 06:19

Only GLG seems to still be shortAll 4 shorts must have lost tens of millions here, from initially being in profit. Marble Bar actually increased their position just over a week ago!

[donald pond] 21/5/2024 19:52

Directors can disclose any offer. This was the fifth offer. There has been a false market for all that time. That is wrong. It is as simple as that.

[rmillaree] 21/5/2024 18:47

"He is buying shares while in possession of knowledge that the rest of us don’t have."

thats probably more factually incorrect than correct - or certainly a possibly misleading statement imho - or telling half truths


facts are he has probably made a prior undertaking to do exactly what he has done and made that undertaking before any potential sale was thought about - its probably on a come what may basis with regard to these transactions . He could easily have bought just before bad news was leaked as well as it going in his favour.

If his fixed choice was a effectively made and booked prior to any sniffle of company sale - imho its just pure luck that he has benefited - thats the blind deal you sign up for - i will buy at x date come what may. Practicably spekaing hios buy decision was made at that earlier point in time not now !


Heck the sale may drag on he may buy more at top dollar and the whole thing may fall through so he could end up paying top dollar and losing money.

In this regard he doesnt make the rules - presumably its reaosnably standard fair.

All i really cae about is that they have put a good deal on the table and shareholders have chance to exit at a decent premium to the recent shareprice.


Still lots of ifs and buts here


i do see where you are coming from donald pond but imho you and looking at things with the benfit of hindsight he probably did not have when he signed up for deal.

Note i suspect lots of these sketchy bids are made with no gurantees being offered and may be an excuse to look at te books of a company


ref XPP that may look slightly sketchy - however xpp had a fundraising in the offing that did the job of raisng the price to 1200p + with extra shares in issue. the received bids were only oracticably speaking probably 80% of the actual value made with the extra shares in issue. So really not much of a premium at all - and dep discount to 6 month average shareprice - bids were disclosed and clealry company have come back strong financially ! at the end of teh day by rebuffing these bids out of hand they have forced pootential buyer to come back and offer something close to a proper price.

I wouldnt disagree with a rule change to make things more transparent but facts are we are where we are in that regard.

[phowdo] 21/5/2024 17:42

Donald,
As anyone who has invested in smallcaps knows the Chopper and Grifter weren't just brands of Raleigh bikes. The London markets have always been bent and they always will be. No wonder they are moribund.

[donald pond] 21/5/2024 17:25

Makes no difference. He is buying shares while in possession of knowledge that the rest of us don't have. The solution is simple: disclose when offers are made.

[bullishdan] 21/5/2024 17:15

Don’t be a clown. Check the dates of his previous share dealing over the past year. More than likely a regular share issue scheme for the chairman.

[donald pond] 21/5/2024 16:48

Here's my view on this and XPP https://open.substack.com/pub/pauldegruchy/p/everybody-knows?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[chatchat] 21/5/2024 15:51

shorts all closed out

[mortal1ty] 21/5/2024 12:51

Most bids trade at a small % discount. to the bid price.

Not because people don't expect the bid do go through, but because of the time value of money. If this whole process takes 6 months to complete, and the cost of equity is 10% a year, that implies investors want at least a 5% discount.

[chatchat] 21/5/2024 09:51

I think we are saying the same thing - it's an uncertainty discount. If the market thought it was definitely going ahead (other than allowing for time value discount) at that price it would price at £25.50.

[rmillaree] 21/5/2024 09:35

oops not 160p if it fails 1600p if it fails !!

[rmillaree] 21/5/2024 09:32

trading 8% below the stated possible offer price of £25.50 - RNS suggests the bidder has been persistent but does market therefore think it won't happen at that price?

In a short word no

If we say 80% chnace of bid going through and we say share will be back to 160p if bids completely fails.

Then we should expect current shareprice to be say 2550 * 80% + 1600 * 20% = 2360 p

So the market is probbaly saying roughly 75-80% chance that bid will go through - discount simply facts in that the expected drop if it fails is likely to be larger than the extra one gets by holding on.

Note by calcs are very basic and one dimensional - there is probbaly some diccount for waiting time too i am not factoring in.

Note if you think shareprice wont end up at 1600p if this falls through simply replace 1600p in calcs above to get your own figures

[thaiger] 21/5/2024 07:58

A few investment sites stated wrongly that the bid was 2250 instead of actual 2550!!Typing error or misleading??

[chatchat] 21/5/2024 07:50

trading 8% below the stated possible offer price of £25.50 - RNS suggests the bidder has been persistent but does market therefore think it won't happen at that price?

will be interesting to see if the shorts have started to close out

[alphabeta4] 20/5/2024 20:45

*sound of the penny dropping as people realise how ridiculous some of the valuations on Aim have become.
(And by the way by my calculations this would be at £53.54 if on the same forward pe as September 2021).

[scepticalinvestor] 20/5/2024 15:42

Record volume

[citys2874] 20/5/2024 13:50

VAL breaking out now worth buying VERY CHEAP

should be a fabulous afternoon

[citys2874] 20/5/2024 10:08

great Start to the morning for KWS, KRS AND INDI.....

[scepticalinvestor] 20/5/2024 09:31

Wonder how the shorts are getting on?Assume they were heavily leveraged so quite a few margin calls this am

[mortal1ty] 20/5/2024 08:49

FDEV is 1x sales... and a few months back you could have almost bought it at net-cash.

FDEV won't get bid for cause Braben owns too much of it, but its valuation is also ridiculous.

[mortal1ty] 20/5/2024 08:47

General undervaluation of UK AIM market.

GB Group. Accesso. Maybe Learning Tech. Can get reasonable companies on rock bottom valuations.

I mean Keywords was a 10% FCF yield...

[aoiaoi] 20/5/2024 08:42

Cannot compare FDEV and KWS. Chalk and cheese.
Former dependent on success of IP's
Latter Industry agnostic and not dependent on success of individual IP's

[mortal1ty] 20/5/2024 08:25

I actually owned Kin and Carta this year and sold that at the first bid. Left a lot of money on the table when 2nd bidder emerged.

Not sure that will happen here as premium already pretty high.