Kazera Global Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 20:27

Not enough?

Dennis became director of Arian Silver (May 2018 to April 2019) which was a Silver & Lithium explorer valued at £5.5 million by Align in July 2017, eventually became Alien Metals which predominantly is an Iron Ore miner. Predicted share price was 1.3p, current share price is 0.115p.

Dennis was a Director at Rome Resources (RMR) (1 August 2019 to August 2023), which was reversed in to by Pathfinder (PFP). Pathfinder by this time had become a cash shell. Align published research on Pathfinder in 2020. Pathfinder had assets that they spun out and sold, IM Minerals. They received £2 million having purchased the assets for £34 million. Align valued the project at £147 million. In a weird twist RMR shares an EPIC with another Austrlian listed company called RAM resources.

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 20:12

Dennis was appointed to Tectonic on the 28th April 2020 (Retired 15 August 2023) as a non-exec.

June 2018 - Align initiates coverage of Tectonic Gold

June 2019 - Shares are issued in payment for professional services to an "associate of the company" who prefers to take payment in equity.

Aligns Website: "We actively look to take payment almost exclusively in the company’s equity"

April 2020 Dennis joins Tectonics board.

Dennis's role is described as
"He joins the Board to oversee the executive team in managing those relationships and progressing the transaction for the sale of a majority interest in the projects"

"Dennis will oversee the appropriate functioning of the board, ensuring proper corporate governance, and contribute to the strategy of the Company"

Meanwhile he was described this way on Kazera:

"Since ceasing to practise law in 2000, he has had a successful career in private equity and at board level, as both as an executive and non-executive director"

"His expertise lies in structuring transactions and successfully negotiating to achieve their conclusion."

June 2020 Kazera buys Whale Head Minerals and Deep Blue Minerals which are companies spun out of Tectonic Gold. Dennis transitions with the companies to head up the running of the operation, odd given his background and this no longer being a restructuring.

Techtonic comment: "With the transaction now completed, the remaining items in the Tectonic Gold Audit for the 2019 year end will be finished as a priority and after the filing of accounts a request will be made for lifting the suspension from trading on the AQSE Growth Market as soon as practicable." So the deal gets Techtonic out of a sticky position.

June 2020 Richard Jennings (Align) takes a 28% stake in Kazera in a funding deal for the assets above.

August 2020 Align initiate coverage of Kazera.

June 2021 Kazera appoints Dennis Edmonds as CEO.

Research Note:

"In June 2020, the board announced a move into diamonds and HMS by acquiring an interest in Deep Blue Minerals (DBM) and Whale Head Minerals (WHM). The acquisition cost was £600,000, funded by issuing the vendor, Richard Jennings (a director of Align Research), with 120 million shares at 0.5p. At the same time, £750,000 was raised at 0.5p, with £156,000 in fee shares. Simultaneously, Dennis Edmonds was appointed to the Board with the specific mandate of focusing on the diamond and HMS projects and bringing these into production. In October 2021, he took over as CEO and brought a new focus on bringing the tantalum operation into production."

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 19:42

I'll link the full Titanium Sands Scoping Report as it's a fantastic read:

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 19:35

Titanium Sands Ltd:

"The scoping study was selected on a project format with a modest capital hurdle but of sufficient scale and project life that its products would be attractive to potential offtake partners. Consequently the study was based on a single dredge continuously mining a zone measuring 10km by 1km wide at a rate of 4 million tonnes per annum over a period of 20 years"
"Potential offtake or Strategic partner discussions have been held with firms from India, United Arab Emirates, Japan, China and Sri Lanka. Preliminary discussions continue with these partners, and the release of the scoping study will provide the Project background the various partners have been seeking to advance discussions. These partners provide a further strong platform to source the debt and equity funding required."

"Project provides a Stage one IRR of 52%"
"The resources are exposed at surface with no barren overburden."
"CAPEX estimated at A$122 million"
"2.5x revenue to operational mining costs"

Kazera:

Perdevlei RNS:

"Due to WHM's knowledge of the Perdevlei area and its confidence in its ability to mine HMS in the region, it has elected to apply for a Mining Right for the concession, rather than adopting the traditional route of applying for a Prospecting Right and then, after a period of mapping, drilling and sampling, apply for a Mining Right to the site."

Research note:

Gross Profit Margin: 96%
Net Profit Margin: 93%
Life Of Mine: 4.2yrs
IRR: 2947%
Investment Capital: 21 million


One of these things is not like the other.

[gbcol] 25/10/2024 17:45

“Ah well, if no one actually wants to discuss anything other than why I don't just f'ck off somewhere else...”


Maybe it’s your arrogant and condescending manner, although I imagine you just see yourself as operating on a far higher intellectual level than us plebs can ever hope to comprehend.

I will let you get the last word in that you evidently need as I won’t comment further. Read into that what you like. This BB has always had negative and positive views but has IMO now declined to the point where it no longer has any value to me.

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 15:59

Ah well, if no one actually wants to discuss anything other than why I don't just f'ck off somewhere else...


Research Note:

"The beach sands ARE naturally replenished."

What was said during the Kazera application process:

"This timeline MAY be extended due to the POSSIBILITY of unrealized POTENTIAL in the resource through the replenishment of the resource. "

Anyone know the expected life of mine for Walviskop?

[misoolisland] 25/10/2024 15:57

is this a good share

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 15:55

DrRadcliffe,

You'll have to explain that one?

I guess you're right, but I don't stand to lose anything either way, which is what I meant by "skin in the game".

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 15:55

1. Pick a timescale
2. Take out all of my posts
3. Take out all the posts commenting on my posts
4. Take out all the share price go up, big sell, big buy posts.

Do you have anything left?

[drradcliffe] 25/10/2024 15:52

You are intellectually invested. That's your skin in the game.

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 15:30

Funny what people are pulling out of that conversation, it wouldn't have been my first thought as a Kazera investor, but hey ho!

"Guess we all need hobbies!"

Finally, someone understands :-)

A voice with no skin in the game, vs people who require "positive sentiment" as a key factor in their investment thesis... who would you trust?

[gbcol] 25/10/2024 14:22

Yes fair to say you’re not a fan of Kazera


“al101uk - 20 Oct 2024 - 16:41:56 - 26338 of 26391 Community of Practice - CP
I track a company called Kazera,……;…….. The company is a typical small AIM POS mining company. Genuinely not worth anyone's time.”


For something not worth anyone’s time you sure spend a lot of your time on it! Guess we all need hobbies!

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 13:55

MTL... I think I'll pass (haven't looked), you don't want me looking at two of your companies.

[al101uk] 25/10/2024 13:50

If you mean would I sink any of my net worth in to Kazera, you're probably right.

I would say I am Intellectually invested here. The reason I'm here goes back 20 years or more... only one other person I know that goes back as far as I do and that would be John Wardle.

Imagine watching a TV series that runs for 20 years and then skipping out before the end.

I am trying very hard to avoid any spin off series though.

[drradcliffe] 25/10/2024 08:32

@al101uk. I bought some MTL a couple of weeks ago. It's fundamentally a value play. Cash generation is roughly equivalent to market cap. The fly in the ointment is (of course) short mine life currently 2027. There is plenty of momentum there (as there is in other high stock rank gold stocks like SRB) because of macro economic/political events.

I don't think KZG is really your thing is it?

[al101uk] 24/10/2024 19:29

I think we're getting somewhere. So the investment strategy is:

1. Find a company that has positive news on the way
2. Get comfortable with management
3. Use sentiment as your guide

I would argue that monitoring sentiment is a rudimentary form of technical analysis (line go up or momentum investing). Positive news would typically be finding "a catalyst for a re-rate" and I guess getting comfortable with management is just a pre-requisite to believe in the positive catalyst.

My issue with the thesis lies in '2'. In my view management are compromised and most of my recent posts are in support of that view. So where you guys believe management 100%, I would discount a lot of what they say. I think I've made a compelling case for my view, but each to their own.

OK, so why 2.5p? Management used a much higher number and the research note which was effectively authored by the company targets over 5p. What are you discounting to get a reduced target? And how does that target come out of your strategy?

Surely the strategy you outline would just play the momentum on positive news until that momentum changed. You don't need target prices and shouldn't be looking to them as a guide.

[gbcol] 24/10/2024 15:44

More or less go along with those thoughts and approach DrRadcliffe. Talking with management is an important part of the process, although certainly not foolproof. You can do all the analysis you like and convince yourself that you have “the right answer” but on AIM you can’t swim against the sentiment tide.

We certainly need positive news on one or more of the 3 items you mention before share price moves significantly North. Dennis was clear that we should expect something on all of them this year although item 3 is not fully within their control.

[drradcliffe] 24/10/2024 14:47

I think Penrith has it about right...

> Yes I think for 2.5p by year end we need a speedy take off agreement
> and say a compromise 4mill sale of the mine. ...

When I talked to Dennis Edmonds recently he was pretty clear about what he thought the investment catalysts will be:

1. signing of offtake agreements
2. cash generation from Alexander Bay heavy mineral sands and diamond operations
3. satisfactory settlement of Hebei dispute

My own view is the share price is about right for the progress made so far.

I would also say, given the al101uk posts, that most AIM shares are a bit of gamble. I use a kind of SWOT analysis approach to determine what the investment reasons might be (or not). I have found a key part of the research is meeting the management and talking to them directly about concerns that might arise.

At this stage I don't think technical analysis has much bearing, and many people are just following a kind of momentum investing approach. I think that's where the sentiment comes in.

[penrith] 24/10/2024 09:56

Cloud I completely agree and this board with the odd exception is good at that.

[al101uk] 24/10/2024 08:44

taff,

I've never respected anyone who thinks the greater fool theory is an investment strategy, so I'll assume that's not it.

How do you objectively measure sentiment?
Where is sentiment now?
How do you forecast where sentiment is likely to be?
What are the possibilities?
Is there a chance that some of them are negative?
Should we only be looking at positive possibilities?
How does a model like that work?
How do you weight multiple possibilities?
How do you measure the possibilities relative to the current share price?
Why is 2.5p the target price?
What's the narrative around that price target?
What's the chance that you undershot/overshot your estimate?
How are you converting your possibilities and measurements of sentiment in to a price target?

Why does your model beat traditional TA or valuation for small AIM companies?

Happy to look at a company differently, but I need to understand the rules.

[penrith] 24/10/2024 07:02

Yes I think for 2.5p by year end we need a speedy take off agreement and say a compromise 4mill sale of the mine. In reality we should have had an off take agreement signed by now as we have had plenty of time.2.5p by year end would be excellent but we will not get there just by releasing hyped interviews. Fingers crossed.GLA

[taffevans] 24/10/2024 06:04

SP I think will be 2p - 2.5p by Christmas. If we get the news we are hoping for by the end of January then BOOM GLA

[taffevans] 24/10/2024 05:59

We are not an FTSE 100 Company and needs to be looked at differently. These small cap AIM companies are all about sentiment and possibilities. For me personally can see a lot of positives to hopefully look forward to in the coming months that will send the share price rocketing GLA