Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 03/4/2023 07:22

i3Energy has been a miserable share to own in the first quarter but really good reserves report figures this morning on top of the OPEC+ news yesterday. Should be a better day today. Yielding over 10% and a monthly payer. Operationally a very good company and its’ assets are in Canada. Definitely worth a look imho.

[skyship] 31/3/2023 20:50

Interesting:
============

Please find a message from our Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, Mark Slater.


"The bear market that started in late 2021 is now getting fairly long in the tooth. It has led to significant de-ratings across the board, with a small number of exceptions among the megacaps that dominate the FTSE 100 index. We have now seen a run on a major bank. Many investors are trying to work out which is the next shoe to drop – perhaps a real estate collapse, perhaps a worse recession than expected. We are well and truly into the disillusionment phase. Sir John Templeton said that “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Conversely, bear markets kill off the euphoria of the previous phase quite quickly and then grind away at any residual optimism until almost all market participants are deeply pessimistic. Given the current mood, the odds are that this bear market is nearing its end.


We are not advocates of market timing for the simple reason that it is extremely hard to get it right, both at the point of entry and exit. Investors who can do this are extremely rare, and most of them get it badly wrong at some point. Instead, we prefer to buy businesses we understand that can compound their earnings over time. We expect the majority of the companies we own to do this even though the economic backcloth is challenging. Some other companies we own will probably see their growth rates slow temporarily but we expect them to improve their competitive positions during tough times by taking market share or by making cheaper acquisitions. Only a handful of companies in the portfolio have experienced problems but these are typically due to unforced errors or things like China’s lockdown, issues that are temporary or fixable.


We have not seen so many companies we own trade on single digit PE multiples since 2008-9. Now, as then, as companies grow their earnings while their multiples fall they are getting cheaper and cheaper. It is analogous to holding a beach ball under water. Sooner or later you cannot hold it down any longer and it jumps above the water. For a more accurate analogy, someone would also be pumping air into the beach ball while you try to keep in down.


It is fashionable to be “down” on the UK, especially after the Truss budget. It is therefore worth remembering that the UK is not all doom and gloom. The Mid 250 index has broadly matched the earnings of the S&P 500 over the past twenty years. The UK market also produces a higher proportion of “tenbaggers221; than the US market. Michael Caine might say that “not a lot of people know that” and he would be right. Our view is that we saw peak gloom about the UK last autumn.

While we cannot predict the end of the bear market with any accuracy we also believe we should not try to do so. We are comforted that we own good businesses that are cheaper than they have been for a very long time. If we look ahead a couple of years rather than a couple of months, we expect to make money When things are going wonderfully, people can rarely imagine that they can go wrong. Similarly, when times are tough, people often struggle to imagine that they will one day be wonderful again."


Best wishes,

Lisa Letham
Head of Dealing & Investor Relations
Tel: [phone]

[skyship] 16/3/2023 11:37

Today's announcement by REIT microcap EPIC underlines in heavy print the tactic of buying the REITs with the widest discounts - assuming debt profile stacks up of course.

Ones to buy, other than EPIC itself at 65p, might be API (30.7%); CTPT (33.8%) and of course EBOX (46%, though likely now 42%).

Still, for the time-being just buy EPIC as at 65p the discount is still 19.5% and the yield 7.7% - dividend paid monthly.

The RNS link is below. A bid from somewhere (PE?) is a possibility I suppose; but more likely this will result in voluntary liquidation; so enjoy a pleasant yield whilst awaiting events.

[skyship] 15/3/2023 15:59

sp - taken the turn a tad lower down - always trigger happy with this play!

[starpukka] 15/3/2023 15:50

Sky, your Suk2 must be flying ?

Sky and Gary......sold mine, way, way too soon. Ah, well. Who can foresee....

[skyship] 13/3/2023 20:53

Well, I bought in first thing at c352p - stupidly done in 2 tranches as got the decimal point wrong first time! DOH!

[gary1966] 13/3/2023 18:15

Won't get poor that way Star, well done.

[starpukka] 13/3/2023 17:49

Ha ha. Yes Gary. Indeed, my current position was nicely in profit and I have closed it this afternoon. I am still keen to lock in profits these days.

[gary1966] 13/3/2023 16:49

Star,

It would appear that adding to your short would have been a good move but who could foresee SVB events happening. Hopefully you are now well in profit with the SUK2 position you already had.

[skyship] 10/3/2023 16:07

Indeed - 243p = 47.1% Discount. The other non-dividend payer (HVPE) also languishing at 2150p on a 45.3% discount. Will they never learn!

[starpukka] 10/3/2023 15:45

Yes, I bgt into srei a couple of days ago; a tad early too.

I have opened an srei spreadbet today aswell; for a narrowing of the discount .

Thanks Gary re: suk2.

Sky: PIN languishing even more atrociously ATM 😔

[gary1966] 10/3/2023 13:43

Yep picked up 3500 at 43p for my daughter's ISA this morning. Picked up EBOX for the children yesterday at smidge under 63.70p.

Star, FTSE looking quite oversold in the short term and so not sure I would be adding to it. Away at the moment and so not keeping a close eye on things and only have access to internet on my phone.

[skyship] 10/3/2023 13:32

sp - pleased that you picked up on that recipe. My wife did some this morning with sweet cherry tomatoes - great addition to the lunchtime salad.

REITs have been taking a hammering this week; rather overdone as the 10yr gilt may be back up to 3.77%; but slightly off the top.

Topped up my SREI yesterday, slightly too early. Today on offer at 43p for a covered and secure 7.62% yield; 30.6% discount. SREI has the best B/S in the sector with average borrowing cost at 2.8% and average 11yr maturity.

[starpukka] 10/3/2023 10:27

Sky, I'm liking your 🍅

Gary, time in increase my Suk2 ?

[skyship] 25/2/2023 12:18

O/T - this is the weekend, so I repeat what I've just posted on the PIN thread where there was a relevant discussion:

Quite amusing that turnip saga.

In their usual anti Tory Government way, Radio 4 called up a couple of farmers expecting them to slag off Therese Coffey - but both of them agreed with her. We should have more respect for seasonality; and why do we really need 5 different lettuces on the shelves; alongside totally unripe tomatoes devoid of any flavour!

We have a salad lunch every day; but, living in France, the cuisine country, we are far more imaginative with what we eat. Green lentils; white beans soaked in herbs, stock & vinaigrette; pickled red cabbage with honey sweetener; white cabbage/red pepper/carrot salad steeped in vinegar & olive oil; beetroot (absolutely NO vinegar; cucumber: de-seeded, sliced, with chili dipping sauce, sugar and cider vinegar. All those basics are pre-prepared and last for 1-2weeks in jars. On the other half of the plate add pork pie, cold meats, cheese - whatever. Personally I also add an artichoke heart in olive oil from a jar; and a pickled walnut brought back from the UK when over there.

I tried pickling my own walnuts because we have two walnut trees in the garden; but it was an incredibly complex procedure and the results were pitiful. Best leave it to Opies!

One last thing. We will be having tomatoes; however they too have to be doctored at this time of year. I would seriously recommend you try this:

# Quarter the tomatoes lengthways
# Lay up on a baking tray covered with greaseproof paper
# Sprinkle with s & p, then dried thyme (or overlay with sprigs from garden)
# Spray a little olive oil; and then (the most important part)
# Drizzle good quality balsamic vinegar – use the thick unctuous type – not the cheap £3/btle type!
# Into the oven at 120c for c90mins.
# Serve warm or cold. They will last in the fridge for 3 days.

[gary1966] 22/2/2023 20:30

Bit of a write up here on AA4.

[gary1966] 22/2/2023 16:29

No worries, one of the few that I have got right this year so well done for picking some up.

[starpukka] 22/2/2023 12:56

Well done, Gary. I have sold my two AA4 spreadbets today for a decent profit; also inclusive of one divi payment. All thanks to you mentioning the share on this thread. So, thank you very much.I am indebted to you.

[gary1966] 22/2/2023 07:44

Nice announcements on two of my companies this morning.

AA4 buying 12.5% of shares back at a 50% premium to last nights close and much closer to NAV. Dividend being increased from 6 to 7ppa which means that the dividend on the reduced holding will be just over 2% higher than the existing dividend.

Nice trading statement on ANG this morning. Unlikely we will get two hot summers on the trot which really impacted fishing last year. Three new stores opened after last years season and so they should contribute nicely and Europe should be less of a drag as strong growth from a low base. Cash adjusted PE, even with all of last years headwinds, still only just over 3.5.

[skyship] 20/2/2023 08:54

An interesting and fair account of the wholly NOT excessive Centrica profits:

[langland] 10/2/2023 13:28

Big yield differential between SAN and SANB- currently .75%. Widest I have seen in last 18 months or so is .25%. No explanation except there is a lot of SAN on offer -maybe as much as 200k (!) whereas there seems to be shortage of SANB. Same pay dates. Next ex div 9th March. Current clean yield 7.5%.

[skyship] 10/2/2023 13:02

Indeed they did.

In the REIT space I now find myself holding:

BCPT (today); CTPT, EBOX, EPIC, SERE, SREI & UKCM.

Rather difficulkt to decide on the BEST BUY; but I suspect the laurels have to go to:

EBOX - 69.80p - Disc @ 42.8%; Yield @ 6.33%

[starpukka] 10/2/2023 12:54

UKCM tempting sky, but would have to forgo latest div as went ex-d yesterday.

[skyship] 10/2/2023 11:58

Really loading up with these REITs - now back into UKCM. At 54.3p they're on a 31.9% discount to their Dec'22 NAV of 79.70p; and yield 6.26%.

Over on the Commercial Property (CP+) thread you can place your bet on BoE Base Rate for 31/12/23. No prizes; just the plaudits of your peers.