Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 21/1/2023 16:07

I currently view EPIC & SERE as the best buys amongst the REITs; and I wrote this over on LemonFool today:
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Commercial Real Estate is a brutally cyclical field. A bear market comes along every so often; and with a combination of luck/skill you may trade out in time to avoid the worse of the troughs.

Those troughs of course create great opportunities; and depending upon your view of the current cycle it could be argued that Q4'22/Q1'23 has and does provide a good entry point.

Of course there are winners and losers, based especially upon debt factors and sector allocation.

The joy of the REIT sector is its transparency and almost mathematical computation.

As such it is less exposed to the risks endured by Conventional Trading Companies - as discussed in the Header of ADVFN’s Commercial Property thread (CP+) . That Header shows the charts of 35 secondary REITs, ie there is a wide selection of Runners & Riders to choose from. Handily you can click on any of the charts and be transported to the relevant company Bulletin Board thread.

Over the past 2/3 months there has been a good bounce in many of the players since the sharp falls we saw in Q2/Q3’22. However, there are still bargains to be found. IMO EPIC & SERE are two such.

Schroder European REIT is a generalist player, entirely invested on the continent in France, Germany & Holland. The Presentation and Q&A in the link below pretty well tells the full story.



Last week’s portfolio valuation update to Dec’22 shows that valuations on the continent have perhaps been less severely impacted by recent market events. The 3.3% valuation fall implies a 3.8% cut in NAV from 140.8c (124.6p) to 135.4c (119.8p). With the share price @ c81p, that provides an NAV discount of 32.4%, whilst the yield = 8.02% at a GBP/Euro rate of 1.13.

That dividend is currently uncovered until the recent sale of their largest asset is reinvested. However the 7.4c dividend (1.85c/Qtr) is secure.

LTV is relatively low at 29.8% (20% net of cash). Debt cost is 2.5%; though 30% due for refinancing this year. All explained in the above Presentation.

IMO SERE offers a very reasonable discount; a great portfolio with plenty of asset management potential; and, of paramount importance, a very generous yield. A good BUY at c81p.

[gary1966] 20/1/2023 16:28

I have decided to use the remainder of the SBLK cash to more than treble my position in I3E. For some reason I am having the feeling already that 2023 isn't going to be my year from an investment perspective.

[gary1966] 19/1/2023 16:22

I have added significantly to AA4 this morning. Really like the announcement this morning. The company has been frustrated by the value that the market is placing on the company as it is at a substantial discount to NAV. Major shareholders feel the same and have been engaging with the company to see what can be done. Today's announcement is the first step and I believe hoists the for sale sign.

[starpukka] 16/1/2023 14:43

Well Gary, I recently closed my last SUK2 for a small loss; as I felt I was fighting the trend. ftse 100 has risen since and, more fool me, I am back in again.

[gary1966] 12/1/2023 21:26

Wllmherk,

As I said just trying to trade a little as it has been rangebound and those gaps need filling. I don’t expect it to be the last time I hold them as I am bullish on the sector as noted in my opening post on this thread.

[wllmherk] 12/1/2023 19:41

Surprised you have decided to lose that massive dividend paid by SBLK, it was your good self that alerted me to these Gary, I plan to hold long term.

wllm :)

[gary1966] 12/1/2023 17:22

I have taken a chance on selling SBLK at $20.80 as a consequence of the markets being quite frothy at the moment as well as gaps on the chart at $19.63 and $17.95. My trading has been really poor over the last few months and is why I reined it in and so expect them to breakout upwards now that I have sold.

[gary1966] 11/1/2023 15:27

Well last years dog of a tip, ANG, is on steroids this year with it already being up over 25%. Not sure if it is just bouncing back from what I would regard as a very oversold position or whether there is more to it. Time will tell.

[gary1966] 11/1/2023 06:59

168 points and a profit, well done. If you keep moving your stops, other than upwards, then there isn’t much point in having them and so you are absolutely right it what you say and how you play it.

[starpukka] 10/1/2023 23:04

Gary, yes @ 4891.5 .I probably made the mistake of having my SL too close to the last closing price on market opening when the spread widens. However, it is always a tricky one because if you remove your SLs before each opening, you can be hit with big drops.

[gary1966] 10/1/2023 20:51

Star,

Did you get stopped out of STNG?

[gary1966] 09/1/2023 16:51

Not really that easy to answer in this day and age with all the non cash adjustments that are made. Also we have had COVID. Am I happy that it will continue to be paid and that cash flow will support it? Yes. Shares are also trading at a significant discount to NAV. Rest assured the directors wouldn't have resumed and subsequently increased the dividend if they didn't feel the company could afford it. AIMHO

[starpukka] 09/1/2023 15:29

Gary, is AA4's dividend fully covered ?

[gary1966] 09/1/2023 09:17

Stopped being interested when I read the RNS this morning Sky. Quite confused with the wording with regards to what is going to form the basis of the settlement and what the situation is with regards to Samsung's use of their tech going forward ad if they are going to be paid for it. As the saying goes, if in doubt do nowt.

AA4 has steadily crept up this year. A380's looking as though they are going to be around for much longer than first thought which has boosted hopes on residual values. Dividend recently increased to 6ppa, paid quarterly, for a 14-15% yield at current prices. Could be getting interesting from a chart perspective as well, but I will leave that to you Sky.

[skyship] 09/1/2023 09:04

NANO all the way back down to 47p on today's further update. Could be a punt now; but surely just like playing roulette. What do you make of it now Gary?

[starpukka] 07/1/2023 16:16

Gary. Somebody said on twitter they would not be surprised if Samsung bought NANO out.

Yes, I'm guaranteed enough profit to pay for my car insurance and a curry next week.

[gary1966] 07/1/2023 14:26

Star, Hopefully it will recover more next week but if you get stopped out now, you will still have made some money by the sound of it and so a great start to 2023.

Sky, I think a large part of why the FTSE had a good year last year, relative to other indices, was because of the $ strength but I am not sure that is going to continue this year, consensus seems to be for it dropping back a little.

NANO could be an interesting small punt now that Samsung have capitulated. Awaiting terms of the settlement, for illegally using NANO's tech, but judging by the amount of licence fees/royalties they haven't paid for using NANO's tech over the last few years, I think it could dwarf the current market cap. In addition they want to use the tech going forward and so they are going to want to resolve/settle this at a level that removes the bad blood that must surely now exist between the two companies. I haven't owned NANO for years but will be keeping an eye on the price action on Monday.

[starpukka] 07/1/2023 14:14

Indeed Sky. But in a recession, which I see likely, I expect both the 100 and the 250 to fall.

[skyship] 07/1/2023 14:11

sp - as I mentioned on last year's thread, SUK2 can be an awkward one as it shorts the FTSE100 which behaves somewhat differently to the UK's wider market, as 75% of its constituents' sales are overseas, mainly $ denomimated

You don't get the 2x gearing, but a truer reflexion of the market can be found with 1MCS, a short on the FTSE250.

[starpukka] 07/1/2023 12:54

Cheers Gary. My SL not quite hit on STNG but its close; as it has dropped a bit. As usual, wish I'd gone for more pounds to the point now.

I think short term the index will bob about a bit so still time for your short.

[gary1966] 06/1/2023 17:28

Really well done on STNG, assume you have a nice profit even if your stop loss is hit now?

Was very tempted to put the whole of my very small pension pot into SUK2 today, I would be fairly confident of making money on it from that level.

[starpukka] 06/1/2023 16:38

Sky, right time for a SUK2 @ 7700 ?

[starpukka] 06/1/2023 16:37

Gary, I went long on a SB in STNG from 47.235. Moving my trailing SL up accordingly. I have also today bgt SUK2 from just shy of 7700. But, I may be a little early on that; we'll see.