Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[starpukka] 21/7/2022 20:19

Gary, do you think UK markets have bottomed ?

[gary1966] 20/7/2022 19:28

Pleased to hear Sky.

[skyship] 20/7/2022 17:13

No, fires are c120km due West, along the coast. However the smoke is blowing our way - a long way away for sure; but loads of it issuing from vast pine wood blazes.

[gary1966] 20/7/2022 16:45

Yep nice steady rise on TRIN today but still a long way to go to get the children's money back to break even.

Sold my two largest positions today as they both looked very elevated on the 2 day RSI as did the FTSE at the time, but has cooled since. Both shares have risen since selling so clearly the RSI's weren't elevated enough.😂9315; However both have gaps on the chart below where I sold which was another factor. Now sat on just over 60% cash again. Will be easy to sit on the cash tomorrow as I am out all day but will struggle when I am around.

Hope you aren't being affected by the fires Sky but I am concerned that you said previously that it was getting very hot down your way.

[skyship] 20/7/2022 07:10

Simon Thompson re-tips TRIN in his IC Online column:

"The outlier is Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN:94p), a £36.5mn market capitalisation oil and gas explorer and producer focused on Trinidad and Tobago, which has shed a quarter of its market value. The de-rating is wholly unjustified. Second-quarter results highlight a company that produced operating cash flow of $6.9mn (pre-tax and hedging) with operating break-even less than a third of the $96.80 per barrel average realised price on 3,093 barrels of oil daily production.

Hedges are unwinding as 70 per cent of second-half output is exposed to the spot oil price, while a low-risk onshore drilling programme offers attractive cash payback of 1.6 years (conventional infill well) to 1.3 years (horizontal well). It will be mainly funded by internal cash flow, so net cash of $15mn (33p a share) should be little changed by the year-end.

Rated on price/earnings (PE) ratios of 3.3 (2022) and 1.4 (2023), when output will be completely unhedged, the value on offer here is compelling."

[skyship] 18/7/2022 17:20

Hmm - pretty dismal reading:

[skyship] 17/7/2022 10:12

Where we could be heading:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 17/7/2022 08:57

Seems pretty clear to me where this one is headed.

Chart of the 1MCS - a short on the MCX FTSE 250:

MCX already down nearly 22%YTD; but could we be about to see another damaging sell-off?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 08/7/2022 14:28

"TRIN should be avoided". Why so?

[chutes01] 08/7/2022 11:51

PRIM- taken a 1% stake in LND, down to 20p, 1p in old money
Hopefully they continue to add, buy-out appears likely 2022, at a significant multiple
to 20p.
1.5 Mio Oz gold and plenty left for the next guy
PRIM should re-rate to nearer NAV
TRIN should be avoided

[gary1966] 06/7/2022 11:17

With regards to TRIN there are some strange valuations in sectors that are really benefitting from the geopolitical turmoil presently.

DEC another case in point. All debt securitised now and so not subject to interest rate fluctuations. Amortised to be repaid fully by 2030. Hedging in place to ensure that this happens. Company makes a lot of cash with gas price at anything over $3. Long term gas price contracts well over $4 for years ahead and so the future is looking very rosy. Currently yield 13% in a SIPP and just over 11% outside. Still managing bolt on acquisitions at very good prices. Scope for dividend to be increased further in the years ahead.

WEN another with inbuilt inflation proofing as the gas price they receive is linked to US CPI. Production growing strongly. Stuffed with cash. Yield over 7% and growing. Good acquisition announced and going through which could provide very good growth in a couple of years.

[strathroyal] 06/7/2022 11:09

I'll take a look at that one thanks.

[skyship] 06/7/2022 10:39

Strath - indeed, hedging seems to have lost the crude price upside.

On another note, herewith Cantor making a very positice case for YellowCake (YCA):

[strathroyal] 05/7/2022 13:18

Skyship - I've posted a couple of times on the TRIN thread re Nick Clayton's comments in the annual report, not sure that they are making really good money. Theoretically they should be doing so but their hedging policy appears to have cost them dear.

[gary1966] 05/7/2022 11:56

Well clearly all went wrong for me from the 8th June. Was up 10% for the qtr at that point but in the remaining 3 weeks slipped back to 2.3%. Thankfully still up 14.4% H1'22.

Yes Sky don't really know what is happening with TRIN. Don't own myself but has clobbered my children's portfolio unfortunately. Agree ridiculously cheap and in the right sector presently. Hopefully the infill drilling will get done and the results will be good and get the price moving back in the right direction.

[skyship] 05/7/2022 10:23

Have bought back into YCA. Uranium price firming again, share price of 333p compares with an NAV of c433p, so a 23% discount. Just 3months ago they were trading at a premium!

Looks to me like a good base formation developing. Break through 350p and see 400p soon thereafter...


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 05/7/2022 10:20

Well, after a rubbish last 2 weeks of June, closed out H1'22 up just 2.2%. Clobbered by TRIN - my Tip for '22! Now look crazily cheap as making really good money with crude over $100...

[starpukka] 18/6/2022 21:19

Gary and Sky,
Well, I enjoyed reading your exchange. I have always had the wanderlust. I lived in central Turkey for 6 years but then got divorced and returned to the UK. If you can afford it, backpacking around the world sounds amazing; as long, I guess, as basic precautions are taken. India is somewhere I'd love to visit.
Later in life, I would like to follow your lead Sky and retire abroad. I live in NW England and it is becoming more and more like a carpark. I imagine in 15-20 years time, rush hour will last all day, every day !
My advice Gary: just don't visit the Amazon rainforest in Brazil !
I've taken a few hits recently; not to mention the broader market falls. I gambled on TED and THG. And I'm overweight on NBPE. And I hold PIN. But I have around 30 stocks so I will hold tight for now and sell on any spikes. Plus I have a buy2let pf I hope to add too. But I will probably hold off on that for 6 months to see if the housing market softens.

[gary1966] 18/6/2022 15:23

I could've been a massive football fan on my moniker and so not stupid of you at all and stupid and you would never be two words that anyone on ADVFN would put in a sentence. So you're 71/72 years young with lots of life left yet to visit many more places in Europe.

India looks like the first port of call and that could take years. We will be able to just live off the income and enjoy the travelling but I am sure I won't be able to keep away from the boards and probably the occasional trade.

You probably saw on the TRIN board that I bought some the other day for the children but don't currently own myself. Usually buying in the 120-122p range is safe but not so this time. Confident that time only required to make money from that level though. There were strange movements on all O&G companies on Friday afternoon. As usual I was out when it all happened. I think there was triple witching on Friday and hope that was the cause and it will reverse this week.

Hopefully it is a nice 40 degrees in France rather than the muggy temperatures we have here at the moment. Good downpour required overnight to clear the air.

[skyship] 18/6/2022 14:48

Ah - stupid of me - of course, 1966 - the year I left school to embark on the far more enjoyable world of work.

I assume you will still continue to manage your money; whilst telling us from time to time just where you are!

Disappointed to say the least to see TRIN sell off down to 110p. Sorely tempted to add as with crude at the level it is they are coining it at the moment. Just crazy that the T&T government isn't incentivising the O&G industry to exploit its reserves. They promise change; but then do nothing. Very Caribbean I suppose.

Pool - a real necessity at the moment. It is 40c here today; and the pool still refreshing, but now up at 30c. The heatwave finishes tomorrow afternoon with the usual thunderstorms.

[skyship] 18/6/2022 13:22

Gary - well said indeed. However - "...start backpacking around the globe."

!!!

You must be younger and fitter than many of us. Are you not at all worried that the world is no longer as safe as it once was.

Personally I don't understand the wanderlust; though do recognise it in others. However I feel there is so much to see on our own continent of Europe - more to see than possible in one lifetime before time to settle down somewhere.

Will you retain a home in the UK; or join me here down in SW France perhaps?

[gary1966] 18/6/2022 12:22

star,

I could also add into the mix that I restored my substantial position in DEC on Wednesday and I am down £12-13k on that and so not my best fortnight. Thankfully I am still up on the qtr after a strong 1st quarter.

More importantly I am healthy as too are my family. I have had a very good run over the last 18mths which means I will be mortgage free on the 1st July, having paid the last 2/3rds of my mortgage off in that time. As a family we have a good level of investment income and my wife's pension as well. From October next year Sue & I will start living the retirement we dreamed of, as a consequence of that income, and start backpacking around the globe, hopefully for many years/decades. So I am happy, content and excited as well. We are extremely fortunate to be in this position and there is not one day that goes by that I don't appreciate how lucky we are.

Apologies for the self indulgence as it isn't what this thread is for but sometimes we all need to take a step back and be thankful for what we have and not focus on what we don't have.

GLA