Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 07/1/2023 14:26

Star, Hopefully it will recover more next week but if you get stopped out now, you will still have made some money by the sound of it and so a great start to 2023.

Sky, I think a large part of why the FTSE had a good year last year, relative to other indices, was because of the $ strength but I am not sure that is going to continue this year, consensus seems to be for it dropping back a little.

NANO could be an interesting small punt now that Samsung have capitulated. Awaiting terms of the settlement, for illegally using NANO's tech, but judging by the amount of licence fees/royalties they haven't paid for using NANO's tech over the last few years, I think it could dwarf the current market cap. In addition they want to use the tech going forward and so they are going to want to resolve/settle this at a level that removes the bad blood that must surely now exist between the two companies. I haven't owned NANO for years but will be keeping an eye on the price action on Monday.

[starpukka] 07/1/2023 14:14

Indeed Sky. But in a recession, which I see likely, I expect both the 100 and the 250 to fall.

[skyship] 07/1/2023 14:11

sp - as I mentioned on last year's thread, SUK2 can be an awkward one as it shorts the FTSE100 which behaves somewhat differently to the UK's wider market, as 75% of its constituents' sales are overseas, mainly $ denomimated

You don't get the 2x gearing, but a truer reflexion of the market can be found with 1MCS, a short on the FTSE250.

[starpukka] 07/1/2023 12:54

Cheers Gary. My SL not quite hit on STNG but its close; as it has dropped a bit. As usual, wish I'd gone for more pounds to the point now.

I think short term the index will bob about a bit so still time for your short.

[gary1966] 06/1/2023 17:28

Really well done on STNG, assume you have a nice profit even if your stop loss is hit now?

Was very tempted to put the whole of my very small pension pot into SUK2 today, I would be fairly confident of making money on it from that level.

[starpukka] 06/1/2023 16:38

Sky, right time for a SUK2 @ 7700 ?

[starpukka] 06/1/2023 16:37

Gary, I went long on a SB in STNG from 47.235. Moving my trailing SL up accordingly. I have also today bgt SUK2 from just shy of 7700. But, I may be a little early on that; we'll see.

[gary1966] 04/1/2023 19:24

Well I think I am going to give up on this New Year tip malarkey, STNG down 11%in the opening two days of the year. Considered it a good bet at $53.77 and even more so now at $48.20. Macro economics are really going to give this company very strong tailwinds for quite a while. Thankfully not a huge position for me presently but was hoping to add with some money that should be coming my way shortly. So I guess I should hope it stays down at this level for a while.

[skyship] 03/1/2023 08:38

Another good article on GGP; and the chart shows a breakout coming:

Gold Mining Journal

See Page 32




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[hybrasil] 02/1/2023 21:58

As sky well knows I am a long term follower of his and have many times benefitted from his suggestions. My tip for 2023 is a dull and boring share. Van Elle (vanl). It’s the number 1 piling contractor in the uk. It has virtually no debt and is valued roughly at the sum of its net assets. Floated in 2016 at £1 a share it has dealt with the exit of the founder (and the sale of his shares), and COVID which needed a discounted rights issue. The share price is now .50p. The company pays a dividend is in my mind well managed and is now doing very well indeed. Results due on the 25 th jan should confirm this.
My tip for 2024 looks like being Advfn. The new management look like they can really get this going and I have subscribed for shares in the placing

[sleepy] 02/1/2023 21:04

Thanks SKY and GLA in 23

[skyship] 01/1/2023 14:22

Well done Gary. I suspect not many have ended up in 2022; especially not nearly 20%.

My own performance is related in the new thread for 2023 - see link below:

[skyship] 01/1/2023 14:20

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2023

Well, as expected, 2022 turned out to be a very difficult year for investors and the World in general. Sadly, it is hard to imagine much change in 2023; but the Market always looks ahead; so with better news from Ukraine, then H2’23 could provide better times.

The UK indices closed the year in distinctly negative territory, with the exception of the FTSE100, the only large global index in marginally positive territory at 7452 (+0.9%). The FTSE 250 lost 4628 pts at 18853 (- 19.7%); whilst AIM had a really bad year losing 386 pts and closing at 831 (-31.7%).

Personally my portfolio traded quietly in a +/- 5% range throughout the year; and closed down 0.4%. A boring year devoid of coups!

My Tip for 2022 – Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN) – tipped at 128p, traded up to 150p in the Spring, but then languished, rallied, dropped and closed out at 103.5p – down 19.1%.

My Spec for 2022 – Primorus Investments (PRIM) – tipped at 3.5p, traded up to 4p bid in early Spring, but then spent the rest of the year in negative territory, closing down at 2.85p (-18.6%).

So, where to find some growth for the year ahead. I considered my preferred sectors of the REITs & PEITs. Both sectors have been hit hard by the rise in interest rates; and the discounts and, in many cases yields, now on offer look to totally discount any further bad news.

I have been feeding cash back into the REIT sector; but it is from the commodities sector that I select both my 2023 Tip & Spec. I considered GAS (CHAR); Oil (TRIN); Gold (GGP) & Silver (PHSP).

So, my Tip for 2023 is a re-run of 2020’s coup – Greatland Gold (GGP). Last time the shares shot from 1.75p to 35p – a 20bagger! Since that unlikely peak the shares have been a one-way toboggan slide back down to 8p.

Now however everything once again looks to be in place for a strong run ahead. The last 6months have seen a big fundraising (no more equity issue required); the appointment of 3 new “Big Name” directors with substantial experience in the sector; a new heavyweight stakeholder and the execution of a £130m debt commitment with a syndicate of Australian banks.

Whilst all this was going on they progressed matters for a joint Australian listing in the Spring/Summer; and most importantly their 70% JV partner (the giant Newcrest) progressed the Havieron mine with well-nigh lightning speed.

With all the good news it is perhaps surprising that GGP still languish at current levels; but I expect that all to change in the New Year; and would be most surprised not to see a 50% gain back to the 12p level, perhaps higher.

The article below states the case far better than I can:



My Spec for 2023 is to re-run TRIN @ 103.5p. Regardless of the oil price, TRIN seems absurdly cheap.

At a MCap of just £40m - Zero NET Debt; c 42% of share price is Net Cash + Inventory + Vat Receivables; PER for 2023 possibly as low as 3x; buybacks started and a dividend promised for this year.



I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome…
=====================

Useful links to gilt/bond prices, commodity prices & the UK 10yr Gilt:

[hindsight] 31/12/2022 10:45

Thank you and best wishes to all, we are already fortunate in that we have cash to invest
Main wish for 2023 is Ukraine forces can push Russians to crack and do a deal at pre 24th Feb borders, that will save many lives and benefit us all

[gary1966] 30/12/2022 21:57

Well finished the year up 19.6% and I have got to be happy with that. A lot of trading in DEC & MNG for the first 5 months of the year contributed largely to that. AA4 up a third, as well as a substantial dividend, as was WEN. My portfolio is made up mainly of high yield shares and so income was a good contributor.

Biggest loss was my tip for the year, ANG, which was down just over 50% on the year.

[skyship] 24/12/2022 17:12

Wishing everyone all health and happiness for Christmas and the new year 🎄

[gary1966] 24/12/2022 09:02

Best wishes, health and happiness for the festive season and new year to one and all.

[sleepy] 18/12/2022 01:08

Thanks SKY

[skyship] 16/12/2022 21:11

I do indeed; and their debt, debt maturities, WAULTs, sector spreads and more...one has to track much more than just NAV discounts and yields.

But LTVs as follows:

# API...21.7%
# CTPT..18.3%
# EBOX..35.2%
# EPIC..35.4%
# SERE..20.0%
# SREI..31.4%

EBOX looks highish, but debt cost is a mere 1.42%!

[sleepy] 16/12/2022 18:57

SKY - thank you for posting 212. Do you also track their LTVs?

[skyship] 16/12/2022 16:18

RE EBOX:

I thought last week's Finals rather encouraging; and the website Presentation rather confirms matters.



The main thing to note is that the dividend was covered in Q4 and will be covered forward into 2023; with the possibility of 3 x 1.25c interim dividends in the first 3 quarters, followed by a slightly increased dividend in Q4. At today's lower offer price of 60.1p and at a forex rate of 1.15, the yield = 7.24%; whilst the NAV discount is now fractionally under 50% at 49.5%.

Of course reduced valuations in Q4'22 & Q1'23 will knock that discount back; however much of the damage is surely in the price. With a high LTV of 35% we could well see the NAV fall as much as 20%, down to 95.2p. At that level the discount would still be a high figure of 36.9%.

There is no doubt that whatever gloss they may put on their new acquisitions, they were made pretty well at the top of the market - so we must expect some serious red ink.

However, the share price has almost halved through 2022 from a high of 118p at the start of the year. So down at 60p with a yield of more than 7%, I rate these a GOOD BUY.