Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 17/6/2022 17:58

Seriously well on just over 42k shares and even better if I hadn’t bought back 63k shares in MNG at £2.157. I think last night those two trades cost me £34k or more.

[starpukka] 17/6/2022 12:50

Gary, I really don't want to rub salt-and you made an excellent profit anyway-but how would you have done if you'd kept your suk2 until late yesterday afternoon ?

[dlp6666] 13/6/2022 21:22

Thanks, all, for your very useful perspectives on the use of SUK2.

[kinbasket] 13/6/2022 12:43

dlp. I'm not a fan of SUK2 or any of the short index ETF multiples. The reason the long term chart is terrible is because the mechanics of the ETF are geared against you and over time you will always lose if you hold. They are at best a short term trading vehicle and should be considered as such. They work when they work as can be seen this week but over time the maths kills you.

About ten years ago when these products first started to appear I spent some time trying to get short the short ETFs. The mechanics mean you will always win over time if you can short them. Needless to say, trying to find someone to take the other side was futile and I was unable to trade. Now most of the products are at least in the 95% down club. I think it was Mike Green who made his name in the states shorting one of these to near zero using institutional products unavailable to plebs.

They have their place but it's important to understand the product clearly and use it accordingly. FWIW I prefer options for insurance as they are generally cheaper if you insure before the vol spikes.

[skyship] 13/6/2022 11:29

dlp - When feeling bearish I increase liquidity and park some of the cash in SUK2. I buy and hold. It currently represents 6.2% of my pf, but 7.7% of my investments; and because its twice geared, I suppose it represents 15% cover. In any event, nicely blue at the moment.

[gary1966] 12/6/2022 19:11

dlp,

I have only bought it a couple of times and I would only hold it fairly short term. However I envisage me possibly using it more in the future. I would only buy it when the short term technicals on the FTSE were very overbought.

Working on the basis that if the market in general falls then your individual holdings are likely to. SUK2 increases in price at twice the rate that the FTSE falls and so at least you have something going up in your portfolio when everything else is probably falling. It can then be cashed in at a profit and you have some cash to buy some shares at a lower point.

Hope that helps.

Gary

[dlp6666] 12/6/2022 18:31

@Gary1966 and @Skyship

May I ask how you actually go about using SUK2 as a portfolio protector, please?

Do you basically buy and sell it every week/for the weekend etc. and 'hope' that the market falls during the period that you hold it so that you can reap the profits?

Its longer-term chart looks like it is definitely NOT for 'buy and hold'!

[gary1966] 11/6/2022 20:12

I just couldn’t see that it was going to move that much against me hence why I threw so much at it. If it had then I would like to think I would have held on until the FTSE was in oversold territory again, even if it meant cashing out at a loss.

[starpukka] 11/6/2022 11:30

Gary,
Gosh. That is conviction. If the ftse had kept rising, where was your stop at ? Or were your prepared to hang on ? I have a mate on twitter who shorted Tesla. It kept rising but he held on; sure of his conviction. And then is began dropping and he quite recently made a very tidy profit.

I've shorted Tesla a number of times but always wimped out.

I have zero spare trading cash now as I have side-lined what I had to go towards a further property to add to my buy-to-let PF.

[gary1966] 11/6/2022 06:59

Just over 42k shares starpukka as I had real conviction, but that ebbed away after every slight dip seemed to get bought quite aggressively. Similar story with MNG hence me buying back at a higher level than I originally had my buy orders in at. Just frustrating this time around as only have £5800 left on the mortgage after paying off the actual profit on this trade, and so could have been mortgage free yesterday.

Hopefully you had some cash yesterday to utilise if you thought the time was right.

[starpukka] 11/6/2022 00:31

Gary. You've still achieved a great result. You must have gone very large on your SUK2 purchase. Very brave, bravo.

[gary1966] 10/6/2022 21:49

Sky, really pleased to hear that. If I held off for 24-48hrs on selling SUK2 and buying back M&G then a £5500 profit would have been £21500 today sadly. Still having a very good qtr and so I won’t complain. Hopefully today’s purchases will be rewarding quite quickly.

Have a good weekend.

[skyship] 10/6/2022 20:53

Certainly did - took another nice turn out of PE trust HVPE; bought a few UKCM (a blue chip REIT on a 26% NAV discount); whilst portfolio protected by SUK2 & a silver recovery in PHSP. Bizarrely up on the day!

[gary1966] 10/6/2022 17:30

Well I've been shopping today, now fully invested again, which I hope I don't regret. Picked up Aviva, Legal & General, Phoenix Group and increased my position in M&G. All very cash generative, bulk annuities side of the first three businesses should benefit from inflation, short term technicals bombed out and obviously pay a big, secure dividend to see me through any market turmoil.

Hope you all had a bit of fun today.

[gary1966] 10/6/2022 08:29

Well what a difference one day can make. If I had held off for one more day on yesterday's trades then I would have been paying my mortgage off today.:-(

[gary1966] 09/6/2022 08:03

Sold the remaining 20k SUK2 at 385p this morning.

Restored my position in M&G as it doesn't seem to want to drop back much more. Scalped 4.65p but was hoping for a little more. Short term RSI has cooled quite a bit since the 26/05.

CHAR and BREI starting to move into interesting territory on the short term RSI and so will keep a close eye on them.

Edit: Looks like my patience ran out at just the wrong time for SUK2 and MNG. Will be interesting to see if MNG get to 212p which is where I originally set my buy order but capitulated at 215.70p. Thankfully still have a lot of cash so all hope not lost yet of taking advantage of any fall in the markets.

[skyship] 08/6/2022 16:12

With the BREI share price sliding I'm intrigued as to VIP's plans for their current holding of 14.5m shares (6.024%) bought since end March at an average price of perhaps 93p, perhaps a tad more.

There is talk of further rationalisation in our sector, but VIP is half the size of BREI, so it has to be unlikely that they could make a move themselves. Not impossible of course, they could drum up equity and debt support to take a shot at, say, a 10% NAV discount, so c115p. If they lose out to a counter-bidder then to the loser the spoils with a £3.5m+ trading profit on their holding.

The well-timed sale of all their other REIT holdings banked a nice profit; whilst providing the cash for their BREI raid. The size of their holding is too large for a marketable trade; so IMO there is more to this than meets the eye.

They could be acting as facilitator for a 3rd party; one whose name would have driven the price higher. VIP's name has had no such effect as the Market sees it as an investment decision rather than a bid prelude. I'm not so sure.

Whatever is afoot, if anything, BREI at 90.4p on a 29.4% discount has to be a good value buy.

[gary1966] 08/6/2022 13:16

FTSE doesn't seem to want to fall much due to the type of companies that are it's constituents and so I decided to sell just over half at 384.85p. Still retain 20k shares should the FTSE start to behave. Sadly was out and about last Wednesday when the FTSE behaved a bit and so missed the dip to 7517.

[skyship] 31/5/2022 21:01

Gary - yes, of course - mea culpa. It is the CHAR CPR due shortly - as per the link above.

[gary1966] 31/5/2022 16:30

Yes I remember you mentioning LSR a lot in the past and is probably why I still had it on a watchlist. Not sure what made me look at the RNS today, guess it was fate.

Well I have just returned home to find that I have taken the plunge on SUK2 in a big way at 377.8p just after the US markets opened. The short position is almost equal to the value of my shareholdings and I am also retaining a significant amount of cash, so I cannot be accused of lacking conviction that I think the markets are due a bit of a pullback. Gap at 421.40 looks interesting but that would require quite a fall in the FTSE.

[skyship] 31/5/2022 09:12

Gary - That LSR/Alina - a blast from the past - had no idea it limped on; though presumably suspended or delisted.

Certainly an interesting Chairman's statement. Others also have suggested market falls of that dimension - one of the reasons I retain SUK2 - just in case!

[gary1966] 31/5/2022 09:11

I assume you mean get into CHAR, not TRIN, before the CPR?

[skyship] 31/5/2022 09:03

Gary - well done with your TRIN trade. Make sure you get them back in before the upcoming CPR "due shortly":

[gary1966] 31/5/2022 07:32

What a sobering chairman’s statement on Alina Holdings Plc, formerly Local Shopping REIT.

[cousin jack] 29/5/2022 17:03

“in the UK it seems to be nose to tail anytime of day!”

In some parts definitely, but not everywhere. Just back from the highlands of Scotland where peace and tranquillity abounds. Roads extremely quiet - like driving in the 1960’s. Admittedly the weather perhaps not quite as good as France, but it’s no surprise the rich ( many of them not British) are buying in the highlands given the value for money on offer.