Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[eblitz1] 28/1/2020 14:04

Hi All
Am I right in saying that JLP can only show profit figures per month when the actual PGM's or Chrome are sold, this may be the reason for the lower figures today although seeing as last year they only made £2million if you take away the £5million of added right backs todays RNS seems OK, however we need more than OK to get the share price moving and we must lose the weak holders

[robers98] 28/1/2020 14:03

Last year we had the hit with lower January production, maybe they went with sorting stuff out in December with the xmas break. So this time Jan'20 numbers will be substantially better than Jan'19. Along with the higher pgm basket price as well.

[sleveen] 28/1/2020 13:57

billyboy

Placing RNS

"Our earnings growth for the first three months of the current financial year is showing significant progress, driven, in part, by the implementation of our Windsor PGM project in late August which is already outperforming our set targets, exceeding 5 000 PGM ounces produced for the month of September alone. We expect to continue on this growth trajectory with the further addition of our chrome and PGM rights at Inyoni and the roll-out of our fine chrome solution which precedes our Zambian based Kabwe project."

and from the FY commentary:

"This jump in earnings reflects only one full month of production at the Windsor PGM Operations, which commenced operations in late August 2019 and exceeded expectations by delivering 5 337 PGM ounces for the month of September 2019 alone, which is more than double that of the PGM ounces produced from the Inyoni Operations"

EDIT... and today's RNS

"The Group's second PGM project, Windsor PGM Operations, came into operation during August 2019 reaching stable production exceeding 5 000 PGM ounces produced for the month of November 2019 alone."

Agree, from placing RNS & FY results gives the impression that Windsor alone is producing 5000 oz PGM alone. I think the above caught many out (including me) hence the over optimistic earnings predictions for PGMs.

Certainly looks like the 3 quotes above conflict with 21k oz H1 PGM production.

[mikebolle1] 28/1/2020 13:56

"The Inyoni team delivered an exceptional performance, completing the recapitalisation of the feed systems over the December period to allow the operation to ramp-up the feed targeting 50 000 tonnes per month."

I suppose this had its effect.

[boris cobaka] 28/1/2020 13:52

The best we can hope for is if it gets caught up in a sector rally which may well be on the way either this week or next. The metals may lead and it was no coincidence that last weeks wee surge took place at the same time as plat broke $1000oz.

[1madmarky] 28/1/2020 13:43

Did they not say that they had changed the feed process at Inyani. That would have impacted nov at the minimum.

[boris cobaka] 28/1/2020 13:41

Obfuscation. Not very midcap.
And peeps wonder why the share price lags.
It's either deliberately misleading or a failure to comprehend the numbers. Whichever it is it's rather poor and underlines the issue once more with regard to communication.
That's why no whoosh and combined with the penchant for paper we'll likely just see a steady plod and sadly it'll not likely reach the hype-tastic numbers from some of the stale bulls.

[ginko3] 28/1/2020 13:29

Never had you down for a rag 'n bone man Bully :-)

[adejuk] 28/1/2020 13:26

the printing presses are running
a bit more or a bit less won't matter much in a year

[bspgamer] 28/1/2020 13:20

Hopefully some of you had a peep

[bullster] 28/1/2020 13:09

.
.

billyboy2fromiii,

Give me a hour as i'm busy with my horses.

But i think you are on the right track.

p.s. i will get back to the SLP poster, also.

.
.

[bullster] 28/1/2020 12:59

.
.

tim000,

Look at the cost to produce figure, that will answer your question.

The $544(2) indicates for 2 operations, see how it has increased from Inyani alone. this reflects the share.

Work on 85/15 split and you won't be far out.

.
.

[billyboy2fromiii] 28/1/2020 12:56

Bullster,

If you read the 14th Nov RNS again (very carefully), it would appear that TOTAL PGM was 5,000 and NOT Windsor pgm. I wonder if Nov is actually 5,000 in TOTAL PGM. If that is correct, is still leaves just over 2,000 PGM from Windsor for combined Oct and Dec. The figures do not add up unless production at Inyoni is (well) below 2,250 per month

BB2.

[aceshi] 28/1/2020 12:52

Platt "Watch JSE today" Yep, we're watching, its 82 cents and highly unlikely to reach your 90 cents, in the near future. Sounds like another "5p by Friday" to me. Lets see.

[bspgamer] 28/1/2020 12:49

GEO seems to be moving well large volume for once

[bullster] 28/1/2020 12:48

.
.
billyboy2fromiii,

I did the math as you did, something aint what it seems.

Over 5,000 ounces for the month of September alone, was quoted in an earlier rns.
Now we see over 5,000 for November alone, i think they only managed it for one month, which would fit better into our calcs.

Leon has a habit of headlining a period to mislead us punters.

.
.

[billyboy2fromiii] 28/1/2020 12:29

Hi Metis,

Because, the figures do not seem to add up.... assuming 2,250 per month for Inyoni gives 13,500 for six months. If you add in 5,000 for Windsor alone for Nov that makes 18,500. We have already been told that Sept was in excess of 5,000 (which I originally thought was again for Windsor, alone but now assume it must be combined)that takes us over the stated 21,082 for the six months and we have not added any Windsor PGM for Oct and Dec. These figures do not add up to me. Assuming 13,500 for Inyoni, there is only 7,582 for Windsor for Sept, Oct Nov and Dec combined!!!!

Thoughts anyone???

Regards, BB2.

[tim000] 28/1/2020 12:28

I'm a JMG shareholder, who hasn't posted before. As I understand it, Windsor is a JV with Eland. I suspect that the hitherto announced September production figure of 5337 ozs PGMs was just for Windsor, but prior to the production/profits share distribution to Eland. The precise shares of JMG and Eland are unknown, but the JMG production figures for H2 2019 suggest maybe 50/50? I agree there is a confused picture here and it would be worth seeking further information from the company or its advisors.

[kennyp52] 28/1/2020 12:18

Thanks to those posting information ; to those just here to bad mouth the share .. grow up . Good job we do have the PGMs which in terms of profitability should dwarf the chrome issue ? Be nice to have some figures alongside these releases but the company have chosen to avoid doing too many of these which is disappointing in such a critical time for the company . I am assuming , and it seems some more informed guys on here are confirming this , that the production is not up to expectation or is certainly not exceeding it , and the opportunity has come again for investors to have a wobble . Its a frustrating share that goes without saying but the forecasts and the amounts coming into production with improved profit share , etc. ---- I'd love to see a 12 months projection . Still holding with confidence .

[metis20] 28/1/2020 12:17

billyboy

why do you, for November "assume that this means that TOTAL COMBINED PGM from Inyoni AND Windsor was 5,000 oz."

when the in the RNS it was stated that

"The Group's second PGM project, Windsor PGM Operations, came into operation during August 2019 reaching stable production exceeding 5 000 PGM ounces produced for the month of November 2019 alone."

[billyboy2fromiii] 28/1/2020 12:15

Bullster,

You comments earlir seem to suggest that you were thinking (like me) that Windsor had produced 5,000 PGM oz in September alone. Please read my earlier post and comment. Windsor cannot have produced 5,000 oz in Sept otherwise the total 21,082 six months production figure do not add up!!!

Can you please explain your earlier Jan 2000 to June 2000 projection of $50,400 earnings.

BB2

[alpal2] 28/1/2020 12:14

Market reaction to results astounds me. What were people hoping for that they have decided to sell, sell, selll.
Would love to know how many of the current sellers are those who took part in Colin's last fundraising. Did they just decide to pocket the small profit and wait for the next confetti shower to get back in?

[metis20] 28/1/2020 12:07

Bullster - is there any info anywhere about the make up of the PGM basket? -

in particular the percentages of the PGM basket that are Pt Pd Rh?

I am in SLP, where that info is available.

I estimate an AVERAGE increase in gross basket price for SLP so far this month of cUSD500 due to rise in Pt, Pd, Rh. That is mainly due to the very large increase in the price of Rh this month.

[billyboy2fromiii] 28/1/2020 12:00

To be perfectly honest, I am disappointed with the PGM ounces delivered. For the period 1st July to 31st Dec, 21,082 PGM ounces were "delivered" which I assume means produced.

Working on Inyoni producing 2,250 oz per month (I was actually expecting an increase for Dec to reflect we were now in full control of the processing from the RNS in Nov), that would give 13,500 oz for the six month period without allowing for any Dec increase.

I have obviously misunderstood the wording of the 14th Nov RNS and thinking Windsor had produced 5,000 PGM oz in September alone. Having reread this RNS it is apparent the TOTAL COMBINED PGM from Inyoni AND Windsor must have been 5,000 oz in September. So by deduction, it would appear that Windsor must have accounted for approx. 2,750 oz in Sept.

We are told in today's RNS that...... Windsor PGM Operations, came into operation during August 2019 reaching stable production exceeding 5 000 PGM ounces produced for the month of November 2019 alone....... again, I read this to mean that Windsor had itself produced 5,000 PGM oz. However, I assume that this means that TOTAL COMBINED PGM from Inyoni AND Windsor was 5,000 oz.

Taking a total 21,082 and an expected 13,500 from Inyoni that leaves 7,582 from Windsor for the period. The above Sept and Nov figures indicate Windsor to be approx. 5,500 oz which only leaves a total balance of 2,082 oz for Windsor for combined Oct and Dec which obviously seems very strange when compared to Sept and Nov.

Alternatively, PGM production at Inyoni has been well below the anticipated 2,250 per month????????

Again, today's RNS states....Combined PGM processing capacity expanded 3 fold to 170 000 tonnes per month targeting 6,000 PGM ounces per month. So if Inyoni is targeting approx. 2,500 to 2,750 oz per month from Dec then Windsor must be targeting approx. 3,500 to 3,250 oz per month going forward.

So basically, I am struggling to understand the make up of the 21,082 PGM ox for the six month ended 31st Dec.

Was anyone else expecting more than 21,082?

Regards, BB2

[mark of the rushes] 28/1/2020 11:57

Bullster:

"The average BBI for this period reported was $1,584 per ounce.

The average BBI for H1/2020 could be $2,300 per ounce.'

What's the bbi right now please?