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JLP Jubilee Metals

5.30
-0.05 (-0.93%)
Last Updated: 08:08:25
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Jubilee Metals JLP London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-0.05 -0.93% 5.30 08:08:25
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
5.35 5.30 5.35 5.35
more quote information »
Industry Sector
MINING

Jubilee Metals JLP Dividends History

No dividends issued between 21 Nov 2014 and 21 Nov 2024

Top Dividend Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 13/11/2024 17:36 by timhigginson12
Hi Oak Bloke,
Please explain your Chingola calculations a bit more fully.
The capital cost is put at $50m. Does this include the $30m JLP are paying for the site. JLP is paying quarterly but will the ownership pass into the JV. If so then it leaves $20m for other equipment. A large concentrator costs $6m but ordered in bulk might bring the price down to $5m. Roan is supposed to produce 7kt p.a.It is the concentrator arithmetic that puzzles me. If a concentrator processes 600kt p.a. with a cu content of 1.5% the output would contain 9kt of Cu. Even if the price per contained output were to be $2000 this would yield $18m which looks ridiculous: probably a decimal point in the wrong place.
According to CAML leaching gives a cost per ton of $2000.
Posted at 10/11/2024 19:31 by the_isolator
inspiring interview with Leon Coetzer today but listen carefully to the words:Interviewer "Your revenue will be significantly higher than your market price"Coetzer replies "Yes absolutely"True/False - True.The revenue according to my model would be £196m and the market cap is £163m. So we could quibble whether 20% more "significantly" higher? We could quibble also whether the ratio of Price to Sales is a relevant ratio to be using to value a miner? I'm struggling to think so. But a forecast of £196m revenue is factually higher than the market price.But the Interviewer then says: "Within a few months you're going to be on an earnings ratio of less than 1"Coetzer replies "What the numbers show exactly that fact"True/False - False.If it were true JLP would be a screaming bargain! £163m of post tax earnings would afford a huge dividend, would generate vast piles of cash, and JLP would easily have a valuation above a billion pounds.According to my model and based on the FY2025 guidance from JLP earnings are estimated by the OB to be $29.5m. So either the share price would need to drop by over 82% from Friday's 5.2p a share to be at a P/E below 1 (let's hope not, eh?) or the price of Copper, PGMs and Chrome would need to substantially rise for JLP to be on a P/E of below 1, based on the FY25 guidance.Here's my model based on the guidance numbers. Arguably the PGM basket could move above a $1400 an ounce average during FY25 (currently they are at circa $1450/oz)Net Profit $29.5m is not a P/E of 1 :(But what my model does show is a £22.3m net profit and a P/E of 7.3 for FY25. That's at the lowest band of copper guidance. Not being cynical but I'm going with the lower number.Ok, ok, let's consider the higher guidance number. At the higher 7,500 tonnes guidance the P/E drops to circa 6.2 on an estimated £26m net profit. That's based on a $7,700 average copper price. Whether a higher copper price than about 20% below the "normal" world price (currently $9,500 a tonne) could be possible isn't entirely clear either.Do I believe the JLP share price will drop 82%? No, I think it was a bit of high spirits and/or a mistake by the interviewer to both propose the earnings could be that, but also for Coetzer to agree with the interviewer. They might need to edit that bit out once the NOMAD realises what was said.So what do I think?Copper ProductionWhilst the delay in increasing copper production is a little frustrating, it is now growing closer.The bit which impressed me was this:"The integrated Roan facility targets an initial stable feed rate of 75 000 tpm of material over the first three quarters of operation, with the potential to increase to a feed rate of 90 000 tpm thereafter. An initial copper recovery of 55% copper in feed is targeted before the introduction of leaching at Roan which is expected to increase copper recoveries to in excess of 70%. This translates to an initial copper unit production from Roan, prior to leaching, of approximately 520 tpm of copper with the potential to increase to 670 tpm assuming the lower feed rate of 75 000 tpm is maintained."Hidden in the numbers it what I think is significant news around the measures being taken to improve the recovery of the ore. Assuming "in excess of 70%" only means 70% then we are talking about a >20% improvement through scale up at Roan and another >20% improvement through improved recovery via Leaching.Roan - here's how that translates:This translates to a 9.5kt-13kt production at Roan from July 2025 depending on grade. The piece which made me sit up and listen was Coetzer speaking on Chingola. The same principle (and technological approach) at Roan would apply to Chingola.Chingola - the Waste Rock projectAssuming all parties reach agreement IRH would be fronting the capital cost for the JV (estimated at $50m), but applying the same method and assuming "above 1.5%" is 1.54% and assuming 24kt from a Roan v2 plant, at a $4,000 cost per tonne equates to a $3,750 per tonne margin. That equals $27m per annum net to JLP.SableNone of the above includes the expanded Sable at 16 000tpa (from 1Q26 - July 2026).We don't precisely know the cost of production at Munkoyo and Project G although I suspect with 3%-4% grades there must be some level of cost economies compared to the FY24 (current) $5,200 per tonne cost of production.How does it all set up for FY26?Assuming Sable "in the next 12 months" comes to passAnnual Report FY2024 - as at June 2024Assuming Roan is operating at 4.5Kt per half year. (9Kt a year)Assuming an $11,000 per tonne copper priceAssuming cost of production drops by around 10% through higher grade processing and higher recoveryAssuming the 30% share of Chingola Waste Rock begins 2H26 so 24Kt for 6 months at 30% share is 3,600 tonnes equivalent.Assuming PGM prices have recovered to a $1,700 basket price.Assuming Chrome prices have fallen but remain at an elevated $90 tonne (for 40% concentrate)Assuming Chrome is now 2.2Mt; PGM production is back to 40Kozs.Obviously quite a lot of assumptions! But all are conceivable and perhaps some could be exceeded as much as undershot so it's not an altogether unrealistic scenario.We do see an Price to EBITDA of just over 1 in that scenario!The P/E meanwhile is 1.8. This would imply a 3X upside minimum to today's share price.So for the patient, JLP may well get its days in the sun. I'm actually quite optimistic to that potential future.Longer term the expansion and scale of handling the vast waste rock of Zambia and beyond almost guarantees a long-term growing trade.But the piece which excites me and which is nowhere in the price is what value can JLP derive from their know how. What know how? JLP have achieved a couple of things no one else appears to have done:First, a successful extraction of metal from waste disregarded as "impossible".Second, a modularisation to scale and concentrate that ore/waste. Success across more than one metal.Third, the build out of a cash-generative operation which appears on the cusp of moving from investment to harvest, and where the future growth lies in scaling in partnership with the likes of IRH having proved the concept of - and profitably proved -RegardsThe Oak BlokeMicro cap and Nano cap holdings might have a higher risk and higher volatility than companies that are traditionally defined as "blue chip"??
Posted at 10/11/2024 19:30 by kooba
Interesting read from The Oak BlokeIs JLP today on a P/E of 1?It would be a Jubilee for Jubilee to have such a low P/Ehttps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/is-jlp-today-on-a-pe-of-1
Posted at 10/11/2024 09:24 by frogkid
During the early part of 2020 when the whole world was busy worrying about a stupid man (chinese) made virus and the world was coming to an end the price if JLP dropped to around 2p. At that time I loaded up significantly, much the same as I did around 10 years ago in the 1s and 2s, when the market cap was around 11 million! It has been a very exciting and sometimes very nervous ride ever since. My holdings have varied over this period. I first bought JLP around 18-20 years ago, can't recall exactly when. I invested for Tjate back then and awaited the granting of the Tjate licence with great excitement. The rest is history. I have traded JLP over the years, occasionally taking profit on a large percentage of my holding. During this last couple of decades I have held many other shares but I keep turning full circle to JLP. I cannot find a more exciting and potentially game changing investment out there although I am sure there are. I have been furiously critical of the management at times but am finally at the point where I feel this as derisked as it can be , given its geographical location. Last week I added a chunk which has taken me to my largest position ever and JLP is now my only stock holding in my portfolio apart from a punt on LND for fun. Everything else is in cash, funds, physical metals and my businesses. All things being equal i expect to do very well over the next 2 years. Barring WW3!This is why I get fed up with getting sniped at and react accordingly. All the best folksFrog
Posted at 08/11/2024 11:56 by 888icb
Simon Thompson on 8th October
I think it is worth revisiting the conclusion to Simon Thomason’s article on 8th October:

“ Production ramp-up to drive materially higher profits

So, with diversification of Jubilee’s revenue improving its risk profile, and its chrome and copper operations an increasingly important part of the group, analysts at house broker Zeus Capital anticipate a material change in this year’s profitability, forecasting a doubling of cash profit to $54mn on 27 per cent higher revenue of $260mn. On this basis, both adjusted pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) would rise fivefold to $41.5mn and 1p, respectively, at current exchange rates.

Of course, there is execution risk and we have been here before, hence why Jubilee’s share price rallied 68 per cent from 5.3p to 8.9p after I suggested buying the shares at the interim results before giving back the gains, and more (‘Lowly rated Jubilee Mining set to ramp up production and profits’, 26 February 2024).

However, with shares in the £140mn market capitalisation company trading on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 4.7 and on less than three times forecast cash profit to enterprise valuation, then the anticipated step change in profit driven by organic growth initiatives is being woefully under-rated, as highlighted by the deep share price discount to Zeus Capital’s 11p-a-share target price. Buy.”

An important reminder of how JLP rallied 68% earlier this year from our current share price of 5.2p to 8.9p. JLP is clearly in a better place now than it was then as confirmed by yesterday’s RNS. The seller appears to have gone so we should see a similar sustained rise as we still need 100% to get to the broker target.
Posted at 27/10/2024 18:57 by chozza
I guess, like some others on this board, I am recently retired and largely planning to live off the interest and dividends of the savings and investments I have made over the last 50 years.
According to Labour I am not a "worker", despite having worked for 50 years. As a non worker (they promised to not raise tax on working people)I think I am in the firing line for a big whack, problem is I don't yet know where it will hit. CGT, IHT, tax on dividends, "unearned income", whatever that is.
For a retired person, you have no opportunity to earn additional income, you have what you have and must manage it as best you can.
Very nervous about Wednesday and hope that JLP will make me (and us, naturally) sufficient money to make worries about the above irrelevant.
GLA,
Cheers,
Chozza
Posted at 11/10/2024 11:15 by pshevlin
Of course peter.Trouble is I have had an ISA for 25 years and most of my JLP shares are in it but since my move to Germany they tax it over here. Ergo I try not to trade it and if JLP makes me hundreds of thousands I will move back to my house in the UK for one tax year and flog the lot before buying it back again instantly. Am I a bad person?
Posted at 09/10/2024 10:12 by highly geared
Due to JLP being 2 years behind where the market thought it would be in terms of reaching the 25ktpa copper production, I think JLP will need to demonstrate tangible progress and actual production numbers, along with some financial meters around how production is positively affecting earnings.

Chrome is steady state and the current anchor.

The variables remain commodities prices, but JLP need to deliver in the areas under their control.

I think we will see the share price improve over the medium term but the next few months may be grinding sideways.
Posted at 30/8/2024 08:09 by xow98
Charles Archer

I directly asked about shareholder returns in the interview, and the general takeaway was that the priority order is to:

1. Secure raw copper supply
2. Upgrade Roan further
3. Purchase additional processing power (I suggested Chambishi and Leon agreed synergies there)

From Leon's perspective (and I concur), now JLP has demonstrated that low grade material can be economically processed, multiple operators are going to try to elbow their way in - so securing supply as fast as possible is business critical. This is especially true because at present, only JLP has the capacity to process low grade ore, so sellers have only one buyer - and will take payment in shares. I suspect you will see dilution, but to buy up more assets, so will be worthwhile.

Something major I touched on is Konkola, the IRH waste copper project is adjacent to the Konkola project (largest in Zambia and just retaken by Vedanta), so strongly suspect a deal is in the making there as needs $1 billion in investment and has a major problem with tailings that JLP can help out with. I also think Anglo may be coming to help out too, so could get very interesting very quickly.
Posted at 29/8/2024 05:01 by undertaker
Credit 'PizzaGate' over on the other Asylum BB!.....

Persistent seller - FIDELITY!Today 05:37
Rumour on Telegram that Fidelity Funds is the background seller of JLP.

JLP is held by the following Fidelity Fund: "Fidelity Investment Funds - Emerging Europe Middle East and Africa Fund A - ACC Shares"



In google search type: "Fidelity Investment Funds liquidating"

The AI Overview produces the following....

AI Overview

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As of March 6, 2024, Fidelity's Total Emerging Markets Fund has a plan of liquidation approved by its Board of Trustees. The fund will no longer pursue its investment objective.

Liquidation involves selling a fund's assets and distributing the proceeds to its shareholders. This can sometimes force shareholders to sell at a time of their choosing.

Here are some other Fidelity funds that have been involved in liquidations or other changes:

Fidelity Funds - Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Fund

In June 2024, Fidelity announced that it would pay a capital distribution to investors on July 17, 2024. The fund also stated that it would continue to review opportunities to sell assets to return value to investors.

Investment Trust

In July 2024, Fidelity announced that it would restrict new investments into the Investment Trust in the best interests of its customers. However, customers will still be able to redeem their existing holdings by selling to cash or switching to other investments.

Jun/Jul is when the decline in the JLP price started.

Therefore Fidelity is liquidating its fund and JLP happens to be one of its components..... nothing to do with any doubts about JLP!

Question now is are Fidelity nearly done?

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