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[pendragon2] 16/12/2018 23:39

An intelligent Brexit might include the following:

1. Elimination of all Import duties, but maintain product standards - vat provides government revenue from sales of imports;

2. Loosening of immigration rules to allow people from all over the world to apply for work permits in the UK as jobs are advertised, with the prospect of residency if all goes well;

3. Accept the EU will put WTO tariffs on goods from UK, if they go over that then take them to court via the World Trade Organisation.

4. Apply rigourous checks on the capital links to UK based activities of European banks, possibly insisting on transfer of capital to teir UK subsidiaries, or enforcing limits to the volume of business they can write.

5. Start cherry picking. Invite individual Premiers of EU countries to talks in London to see what needs to be sorted out on a country by country basis, ie Greek tourism, Irish airlines, etc. Ask the Germans if they really want to pay import duty on aircraft elements for Airbus and face WTO issues via the USA and Boeing if they try to fudge the issue. Point out to the Dutch and Germans that messing about with trade will leave their ports totally clogged, so stop whining and be pragmatic. Tell EU warmongers to bring up problems via NATO and make clear the UK will not support gung ho euro adventurism in Afghanistan, Middle East, Ukraine and Africa.

Make serious arrangements for UK folk in Europe and EU folk in UK re pensions, health services etc (which are covered in the Barnier May agreement, so not a huge barrier).

Ask each EU member country whether they would like to have an embassy and diplomats in London, or whether they would prefer to be represented by an EU office, one or the other, not both, thankyou, part of future relationship package which needs to be cleared up now. You need to tell us what you want.

6. Get into gear on exploring free trade arrangements around the world;

7. Ensure EU businesses in the UK adhere to regulations on pay and conditions of employment;

8. Close the loopholes that enable Google/Amazon and co to evade UK tax.

9. Enhance support for SME's and other worthwhile projet, if necessary via government borrowing, but also from the EU Regional Fund exit bonus and ECB capital repayment. Eliminate University fees for British youngsters and reduce fees for overseas students.

10. Make random checks on imports to ensure they comply with the supposed standards as claimed on their paperwork, for example car exhaust fumes, dogs' dinners, fair trade food, meat, clothes, etc.

11. Remind people in the UK that the fall back position on trade is WTO rules, not 'no deal'.

12. One month after Brexit, ask Scotland and North Ireland if they would like to be independent outside the UK and arrange referendum as required.

13. Make the switch to electric transport official policy and design guide by wire lanes for goods vehicles on motorways, then build the system and the trucks. Ban diesel.

14. Eat more fish and start enjoying yourselves a bit!

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 23:27

Nobody can max - so lets do it is what you say!

We could do lots of things on that basis. I could try and swim across the lake tomorrow - it does not mean that I try it. ;)

[maxkisathickwunt] 16/12/2018 23:26

What’s new around here then?

[maxk] 16/12/2018 23:22

Can you justify 70580 Alp?

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 23:05

Pendragon - I don't favour a second referendum either. The general atmosphere is much too tarnished/toxic to be of any value and it could do more harm than good.


IMO MPs should drive direction with their input and perhaps something like a free vote on the various options to follow. Too much to ask?

That nonsense post from Max above I would actually like to see succeed. There would be an investment killing. The huge downside is the potential impact on people's lives; as with 2008 the poorer part of the population bears the brunt. It would be like testing a new drug on people without any other form of animal/clinical testing - not a smart thing to do.

There is also the potential vote of no-confidence in the government hanging around.

I have no idea what will happen next!

[pendragon2] 16/12/2018 22:48

alp - i remember doing back of envelope calculations about sub-prime, (which came in at about $200bn in wobbly but not necessarily bad loans), only to be astonished when the truth emerged that the derivatives market of 'off balance sheet' products had multiplied the problems a thousandfold by mixing the high risk stuff with the low risk and pretending the risk had been nullified, then turning the whole thing into a mathematical game of profiting by a few hundreds of a percent at a time.

If Brexit stresses a few banks (no bad thing) it could have some knocks for the much inflated property bubble. Interesting choice, property prices people can afford, or hugely inflated values for home people bought when the were cheap - maybe the local vicar could advise if people have doubts.

btw: I don't favour a referendum, just posted the questions because I hadn't seen anything elsewhere and I was wondering how the choices could be addressed. If you discount question one, which seems most likely, it is basically a re-run of ref one.

I suspect a referendum campaign would paint the EU in a very poor light if accounts of the last few months negotiations start being revealed and the 'project fear' element receives the ridicule it deserves.

mattjos 70576- you just hit a few nails on the head.


mad - work permits are issued by countries not the EU, so no reason to assume that UK actors will be blocked, any more than US actors are, if the producer insists they are the right people for the job. I can understand people being nervous at the moment, because uncertainty is no help for anyone. (You should be aware that Brexit is being painted in Europe as a complete withdrawal from everything to do with Europe in every aspect - no holidays, no olive oil, no cars, no science, and people keep asking me why the english don't like them - then I explain the frustrations with the EU and they sort of shrug and most say the feel the same way about a lot of things, but are basically disempowered.)

There was an awards ceremony yesterday at which a UK actor said how much he regretted Brexit because he's just been in a wonderful international co-production, though the project he had been involved with was set up, possibly with some Council of Europe subsidy money, national funding by the French, and included non-EU Israel as a partner, so not really linked to the EU per se. People assume the worst and get flustered. Films and tv commercials get made as long as the money is on the table. Brexit won't change that. Interestingly - there has never been a co-production agreement between the UK and Germany, despite the EU - differences in copyright law make it unwieldy for UK producer to work with German directors, yet international productions including UK interests are shot here all the time so long as the Germans have a minority interest and the director is employed on non-German terms.

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 22:30

"what they fear".

What do they fear?

[7kiwi] 16/12/2018 22:24

MF. The EU didn't negotiate prior to A50 being invoked. If we revoke now, they won't negotiate either.

It would be astonishing if the EU refused entry to UK citizens, travelling legally, when they are currently letting in thousands of illegals from North Africa.

In fact, the EU published plans recently for a 3 year visa for 7 Euros, along the lines of the US ESTA system.

[mattjos] 16/12/2018 21:58

History will judge our negotiations as either:

a). The worst possible. No competent commercial negotiator would have run them this way. We have not once tried to take the high ground and threaten the opposition with what they fear or;

b). Very, very canny way of running the clock down, whilst building up the fear, with the single intent to reverse the will of the people & remain in Europe.

There is part of me that still cannot determine if it is actually a) or b) … I suspect we simply will not know until after next March

[maxk] 16/12/2018 21:34

That's a recipe for never ending negotiations mf.

[mad foetus] 16/12/2018 21:17

But kiwi, the point is surely that while we could slash corporation tax, if we don't do it now, when their business is suffering, it will be too late.
That is the problem with a no deal Brexit: it isn't that it is right or wrong, but simply that it has not been planned for. My sister in law runs a casting agency and business are looking to cast for adverts to be filmed in the spring in European locations, and nobody knows whether British actors will be able to act in those adverts or not. So work has ground to a standstill. Many businesses are in this boat. They can cope with staying in the EU. They can cope with leaving the EU with clear guidelines on how they can trade with the EU. But they are totally screwed if they don't know what is going to happen.
I would go so far as to say that the only course of action that will avoid huge, pointless damage to British business is to revoke Article 50, negotiate the terms of leave and then leave immediately once they are agreed and understood. To set a date for leaving when you don't know the terms you are leaving on is suicide for a huge part of the economy.

[brucie5] 16/12/2018 21:07

Yes. One thing's for sure : noone will take responsibility for the consequences.

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 20:49

Max is still peddling the investors' dream. What he has difficulty focussing on is the reality nightmare.

We almost need to see it happen to prove a point. ;))

………;……̷0;……then he would blame the leaves, the weather or his keyboard.

[7kiwi] 16/12/2018 20:28

Or rather it doesn't have a left, statist slant!

[maxk] 16/12/2018 20:11

Bruce aint interested in that sort of stuff Kiwi, it doesent have the right slant.



Meanwhile something else that doesent matter in Bruce's world.




Over 160k and counting

[7kiwi] 16/12/2018 19:43

So a small proportion. Of those small businesses that might face difficulty, we could halve corporation tax for say three years, to help them.

And of course, sign trade deals with the parts of the world that are growing.

[brucie5] 16/12/2018 19:31

7kiwi,

That's the kind of complacent claptrap I'm talking about. From 2016:



"The total number of businesses in the country is 5.4 million, according to statistics from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.
So, if Vote Leave's 6% estimate is right, that would suggest 324,000 exporting companies: considerably higher than Britain Stronger in Europe's "over 200,000", a figure which includes importers as well as exporters.
Reality Check verdict: It looks in this case as though one side or the other, or possibly both, has been too conservative."


That's a lot of livelihoods you feel able to be glib about.

[7kiwi] 16/12/2018 19:22

90-odd percent of UK businesses don't export to the EU.

So, they won't be impacted at all by Brexit.

[brucie5] 16/12/2018 18:19

But of course to parliament, that is totally unacceptable. Lambs to the slaughter.
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But I thought Brexiteers wanted to uphold Parliamentary sovereignty..? So shouldn't they (and MPs decisions) in turn be upheld by Brexiteers? This is not just a facetious point. I think MPs have so far managed to abrogate their consciences, which mainly warn them of the damage of Brexit to their constituents, on the basis that they have effectively been overruled by the Referendum. The idea that public officers should no longer act according to their consciences, seems troubling in the extreme. I guess the only way out of this is to put themselves (and their platform) before their constituents once more. Or failing this, the People's Vote, which is increasingly becoming the only way through, barring the No Deal, which most MPs know would be a disaster, not just for the economy, but for them, should they allow it happen.


But Alphorn is right: time is tight. No Deal is an accident, possibly waiting to happen. Or as the unintended consequence of a bet that goes badly wrong, as was David Cameron's, along with so many disastrous wars that should have been avoided.

[fireplace22] 16/12/2018 18:04

Unless there is a meaningful realisation that no deal is a viable alternative, that means Hammond allocating funds as appropriate and a massive charm offensive instigated by the likes of Fox, Hunt and Javid to convince the proletariat, the EU will just let the inevitable happen. The only way to get a decent deal is for no deal to be the certain fallback position. But of course to parliament, that is totally unacceptable. Lambs to the slaughter.

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 17:45

As a general comment, irrespective of views, time is running very tight. The Christmas break will take up a few weeks, then New Year. Have to consider the availability of ALL the players needed to complete whatever - new leader, general election, new referendum, meetings with the EU27 etc etc.
Getting backed into a No Deal as the unintended consequences becomes a real possibility or pushing off Art50.

[alphorn] 16/12/2018 17:39

Pendragon - as I posted I was sure that you were aware. David Davis recently was NOT which is a bit scary to be polite.

We are on the same page with your recent post. The wording of any questions would have to be 'idiot proof'.

The lack of knowledge on this subject is more than worrying - hence my analogy with the subprime issue in last night's post.

[fireplace22] 16/12/2018 17:33

Yes, and most grudgingly agree that its acceptable if the backstop issue can be sorted. Unfortunately it is the lynchpin of the EU negotiation stance and is destroying any chance of consensus in the UK.

'Northern Irish Labour MP Kate Hoey has accused the EU and Ireland of “connivingR21; together to undermine Brexit and trap the UK as close as possible to the EU.'