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[brucie5] 15/12/2018 13:24

Here's a well itemised article on the social cost of ongoing Brexit, so our social services and NHS. Kind of bring us down to earth about the actual cost of all this nonsense. Partly, of course, it is the fact that politics has now become gridlocked; but I also think it's the fact that Brexiteers (with some honourable exceptions) long for their Never Never Land, without paying too much attention to the one they actually live in.

[pendragon2] 15/12/2018 13:13

brucie - i also favour a free trade agreement and I don't think security collaboration is conditional on EU membership. The big project slap down, eg Gallileo is showboating by Brussels and extremely stupid.
The ESA is another organisation that's not EU.
I mentioned the court under point 2.

Human Rights Court in Strasbourg is not EU, but Council of Europe.



European Court of Justice in Luxembourg is EU.

Alp - yes, the German Zollamt here patrol the motorways, perhaps a reason why the notion of the Irish backstop being a big issue is such a red herring, imho.

Without the backstop charade I would have supported the transition doc for 2 years and an FTA to follow, with modest diversion on detail as circumstances change, with UK free to pursue other arrangements with the rest of the world.

There re many countries that have a loose but official working relationship with the EU, think of Turkey, or Israel so pragmatic working arrangements are not outside the EU's ability.

They really don't want to lose the UK and are fighting hard to make everything seem as unpalateable as possible, which I don't think it will be in practice..

[grannyboy] 15/12/2018 11:02

It would be a novelty to get a politician that carried out the result and wishes of the electorate, and one who has a backbone that stood up to gangsters and stopped kowtowing on bended knee...

[alphorn] 15/12/2018 10:42

Pendragon - thank you for that very long post.

I don't have the patience nor is it my methodology to write at length. As Weinstock used to say if you can not summarise the issue that presents itself on one page then I won't read it.

A few comments:
- you talk of a 'protectionist response'. That is IMO the negative view on trading as a combined force. Today major companies and production lines have to produce for bigger than domestic markets. That is unarguable, and we have all benefitted by lower prices. (Whether globalisation is good/bad is another discussion).
- as an aside (you did not cover this point) it would be very difficult for anyone to argue that protectionism is not one of the underlyers for the current UK moves.
- you seem negative on the open borders. You do not mention the 'Douane Volants' that patrol much of the Continent. There are many and they have a high hit rate with almost unlimited powers of search and entry.
- you conclude that one size does not fit all. That IMO is as informative as day follows night. It can never be so; whether it is a village, states or group of countries. The challenge is how that is managed. Not to run away from it.

Thank you again for your long post.

[chairman20] 15/12/2018 09:54

Pen - brilliant

[zho] 15/12/2018 09:14

Hi Mount Teide,

Good to hear the trip is going well.

I heard JRM make his payroll argument and my rapidly diminishing respect for him slipped another notch. It was a secret vote for goodness' sake, and it seems to be widely accepted that many lied about their voting intentions.

Searching on “next Conservative leader” I can see at least 10 current cabinet members listed, and while it beats me why anyone would want to be leader of the Tories right now there are plenty who seem to be gagging for it, a strong reason for casting votes against TM, whether on the payroll or not.

>> AND the fact she achieved less support than Thatcher>>

I'm not sure about this. There isn't a like for like comparison because the rules have changed, but 63% voted for May (200 from 317) whereas 55% voted for Thatcher in the first round of a leadership election (against Heseltine: 204 for, 152 against, 16 abstentions ).

>>... who had the good sense to know immediately that the game was up...>>

Or this. The morning after the vote Thatcher said "I fight on; I fight to win". She withdrew the next day after being advised that she could not win the second ballot.

[mount teide] 15/12/2018 02:27

Hi Zho,

Visiting Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, China and Australia have all proved highly rewarding from the perspective of obtaining some extremely useful first hand experience of the incredible pace of economic/infrastructure development that has continued to occur since my last visit some 3-4 years ago. With much of the region the continued recipient of huge amounts of foreign investment and with access to an unlimited supply of cheap labour, its continued rapid economic rise is not only assured but, still probably in the foothills with many, many decades left to run.

Overwhelmingly, the two consumer items most of the rural populations of SE Asia aspire to are ICE transport and a smartphone - i was astonished at the number of modern moped/car/truck owners and expensive smartphone users i saw in dirt poor rural Indonesia and Malaysia - all operated on 4G Networks offering excellent connectivity.

According to an old friend who runs one of the largest Container Ports in Indonesia, Chinese business investment across SE Asia has escalated rapidly over the last decade - likewise Chinese retail investment in the residential property sectors of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Australia.

I have little doubt that economic historian Niall Fergusson's assertion that when this Century's history is written, it will be all about the incredible economic rise of the high population Nation's of China, SE Asia and India and the managed decline of The West

'...how come he is claiming that TM should resign after a vote which went 200 - 117 in her favour.' On the basis that May outside her own payroll has lost the support of the overwhelming majority of her backbenchers,(and the DUP, who are propping her up after her disastrous election performance), AND the fact she achieved less support than Thatcher, who had the good sense to know immediately that the game was up and resigned the next day.

[mount teide] 15/12/2018 01:24

Richard Branson? - the self serving, convicted vat fraudster who offshore's his company profits and lives as a tax exile on Necker Island? Surely not?

Most sensible Brits would suggest Branson's time would be better employed sorting out the appalling mess he has made of running Virgin Trains and start to pay UK taxes before lecturing us on Brexit and how we should vote.

Interesting to note that the Euro has fallen against the dollar after hugely disappointing French and German economic surveys seriously dismayed the markets ..…as many of us predicted, a hugely concerning tail risk is now forming that eurozone economies are slipping into recession while ECB interest rates are still sub-zero and QE turned off.

This strongly points to a post 1989 Japan-like economic scenario for the EU: a prospect which the Euro understandably does not take well, particularly with the EU Commission fast tracking the membership of 6 more dirt poor Eastern/Central European Nations, all of whom will be required to instantly join the Euro.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that a large percentage of the MP's in Parliament are actually frightened of being outside the EU, since they do not have the skills, knowledge and courage to step into the outside world.

The EU has been a security blanket for them which is why they see vassalage as a more than acceptable option. May's embarrassing lack of skills in this 'negotiation' with the EU has highlighted my point. She had been offered help by our commonwealth friends and turned it down - asking civil servants with no private sector business experience/management to take the role of 'negotiators' was also a massive error of judgement. The PFI National scandal exposed beyond all doubt the appalling negotiating skills of the Civil Service, who were completely out of their depth against private sector professionals who do it for a living.

This is the reason why there should be a no-confidence vote in Parliament because this deal will not get though as it is.

Whether the next GE takes place when we are inside or outside the EU all political parties must have a greater number of business professionals. Whether they be former CEO's who have real knowledge of the inner workings of big business or a haulage firm owner, civil engineer or IT specialist; these are the people we need in our next batch of new entrants into parliament - not career public sector workers with no real world(private sector) experience.

It is becoming clearer with each passing day that the UK electorate's quest for sovereignty and independence, expressed in the greatest democratic vote this Nation has ever seen, will only be fulfilled by a different approach to politics than we have now. We have been completely let down by a self serving, hugely arrogant and largely self selecting political class that like the EU, no longer represents the views of the overwhelming majority of the people they claim to have been elected to Govern.

[maxk] 14/12/2018 23:53

Thank you, a very good read.

[grannyboy] 14/12/2018 23:27

Looks like bruciebaby has been going off on a few of his rants...I see four of his filtered user name cropping up...

I have never seen so many vile, sour, anti democratic no marks, with the main culprit Andrew Adonis screaming his spiteful hatred of brexiteers like a demented banshee, closely followed by the likes of bruciebaby...

[brucie5] 14/12/2018 20:33

And in fairness, re. The difficulties of your non eu international friends getting visas to travel to the UK, I'm not sure that visa free travel is really a selling point of brexit, unless you are voting for an equality of difficulty for all!

I think rather the reverse, particularly for the young: the freedom to travel and do business all over Europe, which you presumably benefit from, is not something that I lightly give away on behalf of our young people.

These are among the advantages which are rarely considered by brexiteers, any more than the very clear economic benefits, which strikes me as odd.

[alphorn] 14/12/2018 19:31

Some excellent posts on this thread that I read with interest.

Pendragon, I find some parts of your views I support strongly and some not. Probably not unusual but interesting.
A couple of comments; in your last post you talk of stronger organisations etc. as if it is a weakness. You could also argue that it makes that 'bloc' more resilient to the China's, USA's and India's of this world. Secondly, an earlier post on the thorny issue of fishing; I understand that large numbers of 'quotas' are bought and sold. This obviously muddies the water (pun intended) as to who is the owner of those quotas and questions the validity of an analysis purely by flag flown.

[brucie5] 14/12/2018 18:32

Here's an example of what I mean. If JRM can advise his investors that their wealth is best invested offshore during the brexit debacle, why isn't he coming clean with the public? This warning from Richard Branson.

hTTs://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46564524

[brucie5] 14/12/2018 18:24

Write that book, Pendragon. I read your comments with interest, but it doesn't quite persuade me, beyond a salutary and very well informed reminder of the EU's considerable flaws. The question for me is wider than the EU's many flaws, and it has to do with the EU's many advantages, both for the UK, as it's direct neighbour, and largest trading partner, and culturally in terms of common social and intellectual values that are very easily lost to the Right, whose views in everything from climate change to the NHS, to fake news counterfactualism is all to evident on this board.

I do not wish to live in a version of either the USA or Singapore, otherwise I would move there. And I also think we have enough distance from the European ever closer Union project to remain within,and yet apart from those aspirations which we do not share.

I also think any brexiteer needs to acknowledge the implications of this issue on our own union, or likely disintegration. The EU was effectively the glue that kept our diverse union together, and allowed the wounds of northern Ireland to heal. I think if IDS or JRM were willing to admit that brexit will in all likelihood make us relatively poorer, and lead to break up of UK Plc, and this the price they want us to pay, then I might respect them a little more.

Good to talk, though. I respect what you say, and always try to listen to informed and honest views.

[pendragon2] 14/12/2018 16:16

Brucie - capitalism has a tendency towards monopoly, as stronger organisations take-over or rescue smaller or weaker businesses. Sometimes its aggressive, sometimes benign, but the process is never ending and needs to be checked from time to time. Brexit is one of those moments that could reset some relationships.

The EU's approach to consortium building and clusters accelerates this process, especially in tech research and influence over applied research has become less and less autonomous as preferred partners have been given responsibilities for programme co-ordination as well as individual projects. That way everyone ends up feeding the research goals of the most powerful corporations and in the EU it explains why we have missed the boat with electric cars and the US and Japanese have built up a massive lead while the Germans wasted more than a decade on clean (ahem) diesel.

enjoy the weekend.

[pendragon2] 14/12/2018 15:55

Brucie - I think the UK will have its work cut out to become an effectively run independent country if it does leave. A lot to be desired, especially in Whitehall. Fail better.

[freddie ferret] 14/12/2018 15:44

I have posted in the past about the rather nasty nature of the big US tech companies.
This is just another one.

[zho] 14/12/2018 15:03

Hi Mount Teide,

I hope you're enjoying Singapore.

The accounts I skimmed suggested that the boot is on the other foot, along the lines of ... if JRM criticises remainers for wanting a 'people's vote' then how come he is claiming that TM should resign after a vote which went 200 - 117 in her favour.

[mount teide] 14/12/2018 14:19

Jacob Rees-Mogg is getting slated in the legacy media and by the hugely embittered remainer cult(more commonly known as the referendum losers), for being a poor loser - laughably, they accuse him of failing to accept the results of a vote.

Of course it is wrong to refuse to accept the results of a vote, isn't it?

The duplicitous, self serving, remainer and media elite's lack of self-awareness is beyond belief.