Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[dope007] 15/2/2022 09:14

Just took profit. Circa 10% in one day is good enough for me

[robertball] 15/2/2022 08:22

Nav is too low. I reckon without Ukraine closer to £9.

[jfinvestments] 15/2/2022 06:47

I have sold out of this for the exact same thinking. Closer to 700p when I did. However I think in terms of risk, it isn't attractive. I fully expect it below 600p. The recent low was 590p. So I would expect to see that soon.

[ammons] 14/2/2022 21:22

NAV 753p, current price 655p? The discount is about 13% which, for the amount of risk, is not very high at all IMHO. These are more likely to go down much further from here unless Putin draws his Ukraine horns in which is not happening any time soon.

[dope007] 14/2/2022 10:54

Picked some up this morning. Very large discount to assets

[robertball] 09/2/2022 12:17

£8 with old hitting highs?

[montyhedge] 07/2/2022 10:12

This is doing quite well considering the Ukraine situation, will Putin invade or not, personally I don't think he will.

[loganair] 01/2/2022 14:55

Not leaving, just that deaths are far out pacing births.

[hindsight] 01/2/2022 14:46

Thought they were leaving to visit Salisbury Cathedral

[brucie5] 01/2/2022 13:02

I wonder why no-one wants to live in Russia? I imagine you could get a double garage there and a couple of acres of garden for the price of shed in Oxford.

Anyone would think it's a mafia state.

[loganair] 29/1/2022 11:38

My own thoughts on why Russia/Putin wants to integrate the separatist areas of Donbass.

2020/2021 the Russian population has fallen by 1.5mln. The population of the separatist areas of the Donbass is circa 1.5mln. Therefore by integrating this region the Russian population returns to where is was at the beginning of 2020.

Crimea has a population of circa 2.2mln, when Russia integrated it, it returned the Russian population to where it was 8 years earlier. By 2020 Russia's population had already declined by the same amount, 2.2mln as the Crimea had added to it and since then the Russian population has fallen by a further 1.5mln.

[aurelius5] 26/1/2022 17:49

Promising finals here with a proposed annual dividend of 60pence per share to be paid quarterly from June - a forward yield of 9.5% on today's closing price. Risk/reward as always.

[loganair] 25/1/2022 10:36

Russia/Ukraine - what is known and what is likely to happen.

Known - Russian parliament to vote on recognising separatist held areas of Donbass as Independent states.

Likely to happen:

1. Russian parliament votes in favour of recognising separatist held areas of Donbass as Independent.

2. Separatist areas of Donbass hold referendum to become part of Russia.

3. Referendum votes heavily in favour of joining Russia.

4. Separatist area of Donbass integrates with rest of Russia.


Russia gain a very small amount of territory and circa 1.5mln increase in population with no extra or just negligible extra sanctions. Will have no effect on Nord Stream 2 pipeline.



May Happen:

Separatist forces, strongly backed by Russia take rest of Donbass they do not hold.

Then as above 1 to 5.

Extra sanctions will be imposed, however most probably will not effect Nord Stream 2 pipeline



Unlikely:

Separatist forces, strongly backed by Russia take all coastal regions up to Crimea.

This will mean Russia pushing Ukraine completely out of the Sea of Azov.

Unlikely to happen as will most probably effect Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming on-stream.

[robertball] 25/1/2022 09:59

One for the brave

[loganair] 24/1/2022 15:15

Russian stocks collapse as U.S. orders diplomat families out of Ukraine:


Russian stocks crashed and the ruble sank to its lowest level in more than a year, as investors feared the triggering of sanctions if the country invades Ukraine.

“With both the US and UK withdrawing some embassy staff from Kiev, there is a real threat of an imminent Russian invasion,” said Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at XM.

[loganair] 20/1/2022 21:02

The Russian central bank has continued getting rid of US Treasury bonds, with its share of investments in American debt shrinking by $1.3 billion in November to $2.4 billion, according to the US Treasury Department.

Statistics show that at the end of November, the Russian owned long-term government bonds totaled a modest $101 million against the $554 million a month earlier. Investments in short-term Treasury securities decreased to $2.308 billion from $3.166 billion.

Russia used to be one of the major holders of US Treasuries. Back in 2013, Russian investments in US government bonds exceeded $150 billion.

[montyhedge] 23/12/2021 16:23

I think investors are nervous if Russia are cut off from SWIFT if they invade Ukraine how would you get your dividend?

[loganair] 06/12/2021 13:46

It may well be the case that while everyone is too busy watching natural gas prices in Europe and wondering what Moscow will do next, Moscow is in fact focusing on metals and minerals – some of which, incidentally, have been called “the oil of tomorrow.”

Chukotka, an autonomous region in the northern part of Russia's Far East is rich in lithium reserves. Just how rich is hard to pinpoint, but it might be enough to be worth developing. Russia also has lithium deposits in eastern Siberia and Yakutia, also in the Far East, and has plans to become the source of 3.5% of the world's lithium by 2025.

The Arctic seems to be the modern version of the treasure cave in Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. There is everything in the Arctic in terms of natural resources, but the harsh climate and lack of even basic infrastructure in most of it have interfered with the development of these resources. There has also not been much need for them in a fossil fuel-based economy.

Now, with the surge in demand expected for most basic metals and certain minerals considered critical for the energy transition such as cobalt, for example, or the group collectively known as rare earths, there seems to be strong motivation, at least in Russia, which has most of the Arctic, to push ahead with resource development in the inhospitable northern region.

Rosatom, the company behind the Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant, plans to build five more floating nuclear power plants, all to supply mining projects. The five floating power plants will cost $2.2 billion.

Floating power plants are the first step that needs to be made on the road to the development of Russia's metal and mineral wealth in the Arctic. Without electricity, the task of building roads and other vital infrastructure for a mining project is a lot more challenging. With electricity, the first big problem is solved.

“Russia should expand through the Arctic, as this is where it has its main mineral resources,” President Vladimir Putin said back in 2017 and has made sure since then that progress is being made.

“The world economy is aimed at a gradual transition to low-carbon energy, and this is already a new reality,” said Russia's Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, earlier this year.

“It is necessary to prepare for a step-by-step reduction in the use of traditional fuels: oil, gas, coal. [It is necessary] to improve energy efficiency, develop alternative energy, build appropriate infrastructure,̶1; Mishustin also said.

Russia, in other words, is beginning to prepare for a post-fossil fuel world, or at least a world that needs less of the hydrocarbons that have fuelled it for close to 200 years now. This world will replace hydrocarbons with metals and minerals. Fortunately for Russia, it has a lot of both hydrocarbons and metals and minerals. Unfortunately for those without a lot of metal and mineral resources, they might once again find themselves dependent on imports from the country that now holds their gas supply in its hands.

[loganair] 29/11/2021 14:50

Gazprom (JRS Largest Investment) reports record profits after price surge:

With gas prices soaring throughout Europe, Russian energy giant Gazprom has revealed a net profit for the first nine months of 2021 of $21 billion, a new record for the company over the first three quarters of a year.

The promising Q3 result, a record quarterly net profit of $7.8 billion, comes as the result of high natural gas prices and a 10% decrease in net debt. Last year, the same time period cost the company $3.3 billion.

According to Gazprom, its average sale price to Europe in the third quarter of 2020 almost tripled, jumping from $117.2 per 1,000 cubic metres to $313.40.

[loganair] 02/11/2021 21:37

The Gas, Oil and Mining companies held in JRS are on the whole are very cheap, low cost with very high quality assets.

Sberbank is one of the best run and most profitable banks in the world.

[loganair] 02/11/2021 11:11

Being reported - Putin is right in saying the West is destroying itself through Woke politics.

Putin said, "Russia has seen all this nonsense before under Communism. Russia has been there already and has left, I hope all this in the distant past."

[killing_time] 12/10/2021 11:52

The NAV is on fire here. Now 967p.

[loganair] 11/10/2021 12:46

Russian preparations for a US financial crisis:

Russia and China began to make preparations when it became evident in 2008-9 that the US would kick the can down the road instead of restoring fiscal discipline. Putin denounced the US as a “parasite̶1; in the international financial system, and China began to call for a post-Western world and incrementally decoupled from the US-led financial system.

The silver lining of the anti-Russian sanctions has been that they compelled Russia to make painful adjustments. Over the past years, Russia has repaid its debts and exercised strict fiscal discipline. The Russian-Chinese de-dollarization initiative has resulted in Russia and China becoming the largest procurers of gold, trading increasingly in local currencies, and reducing the share of dollars in their foreign reserves. New financial instruments have also been developed, ranging from new investment banks, regional alternatives to the SWIFT transaction system, local credit rating systems, and credit card agreements.

Preparations for the financial crisis also entail preparations for political consequences. As financial crises erode socio-economic and political stability, the US government will likely point to external forces to restore solidarity and loyalty to authorities. Simply put, Washington will likely point to Russia and China as the culprits of the financial and economic crisis, which can have unforeseen consequences. The US has to a large extent had a “healthy nationalism” in terms of believing that its best days were ahead of it. In contrast, the more dangerous nationalism looks towards past glories that were robbed by foreign powers. Trump is likely only the first president to argue that US greatness has been stolen by China, while Russia will be blamed for rising energy costs.

In short, Russian politicians will be hoping their country can weather the storm simply by severing ties with the sinking ship.