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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc LSE:JRS London Ordinary Share GB0032164732 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -8.00 -1.27% 624.00 620.00 628.00 626.00 620.00 626.00 33,223 16:35:12
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.0 18.0 34.0 18.3 283

Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
10/1/2019
09:27
The growth rate of the Russian economy increased last year, while inflation remained low, the World Bank said in its 2019 World Economic Outlook. “Although economic sanctions tightened, Russia experienced relatively low and stable inflation and increased oil production. As a result of robust domestic activity, the Russian economy expanded at a 1.6 percent pace in the year just ended,” said the report. In Russia, “growth has been resilient, supported by private consumption and exports,” the bank said, projecting a short-term slowdown this year to 1.5 percent. In 2020 and 2021, the bank expects an increase in the growth rate of Russia’s GDP to 1.8 percent.
loganair
22/12/2018
22:39
Last month Russia once again added substantially to its gold reserves with the central bank taking in another 1.2 million ounces (37.3 tonnes). This has already made 2018 a record year for increasing its gold holdings, with still another month to go, Altogether the nation has added almost 265 tonnes of gold to its reserves so far this year and is heading for 300 tonnes for the full year if the current rate of gold purchases continues. Interestingly this possible target looks to be in excess of the country’s total annual gold mine production - estimated by the major consultancies at around 270-280 tonnes - the world’s third largest after China and Australia. It is possible that Russia’s 2018 gold output may have risen a little but probably not by up as much as around 20-30 tonnes.
loganair
20/12/2018
18:48
Russia saw a 1.7 percent economic growth from January through October of the current year and will see a budget surplus of about 2.1 percent of GDP this year. The economy is expected to grow by over three percent in 2021. Russia’s unemployment in 2018 will fall to 4.8% compared to 5.2% in 2017.
loganair
16/12/2018
20:48
Russia unexpectedly hikes key rate before risk-loaded quarter: Russia’s central bank unexpectedly increased borrowing costs for the second time this year and signalled it may soon act again as inflation accelerates amid a tax hike and possible new US sanctions. “In the current conditions, it’s very important for us to maintain our conservative approach to assessing risks and conducting monetary policy,” central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference following the decision. She stressed however that Russia isn’t in a rate hiking cycle and that tightening now is aimed at making it easier to resume planned easing late next year or in early 2020. The bank raised its key interest rate a quarter-point to 7.75%. The majority of the 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a hold, with only 16 forecasting the hike. The rouble extended declines, as any impact of the tightening was offset by the announcement that the central bank will resume billions of dollars in foreign currency purchases from January 15 in full. The tightening will give extra protection to the rouble as it heads into a potentially tumultuous quarter after a more than 13% plunge this year. Inflation is edging closer to the central bank’s 4% target and could spike next quarter after a value-added tax increase kicks in. Discussion over sanctions for Russia’s alleged interference in US elections is expected to resume again after a delay this year. External factors such as a slowdown in global growth due to a trade war between the US and China, could also hurt Russia next year, Nabiullina stressed. In addition, oil prices could come under pressure because recent output cuts agreed to in a deal between Opec and major oil producers including Russia may not be enough to offset rising US supply and softening global demand, she said. The central bank typically buys foreign currency to build up reserves when oil prices are above $40 a barrel. Purchases were suspended in August to stem a slide in the rouble as concern mounted over sanctions. The recent plunge in global oil prices means the central bank will only have to buy about $201mn a day, below the 2018 average, to meet its targets, according to Bloomberg Economics. Some economists had suggested the central bank might restart the buying slowly, with reduced volumes initially, but Nabiullina said it will begin with the full amounts. Future suspensions will be used only if threats to financial stability arise, she said. “The rate hike is aimed at limiting the possible negative effect on the market from restarting the FX purchases,” said Tatiana Evdokimova, chief economist for Russia at Nordea Bank. “Future moves by the central bank will be highly dependent on how the VAT increase affects inflation expectations.” Annual inflation accelerated for a sixth month to 3.9% as of December 10, the central bank said in today’s statement. It may reach 5.2% by the end of March, according to a Bloomberg survey. The rouble traded 0.7% weaker at 66.68 per dollar. The yield on Russia’s 10-year local-currency bonds was unchanged at 8.7%. The resumption of FX purchases “will contain any strengthening of the rouble,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Helsinki. “Given the current uncertainty in external factors and the central bank’s conservatism, at least one hike in 2019 is highly likely.”
loganair
23/11/2018
10:24
The volume of trade between Russia and Austria has been steadily growing, reaching $4.2 billion since January year-on-year, said Russia’s trade representative in Austria Aleksandr Potemkin. “Solid steps have been made towards strengthening of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Austria over the past two years,” he said. Trade between Russia and the European Union started to improve in early 2017 despite trade barriers from mutual sanctions introduced almost five years ago. Russia’s trade turnover with the bloc is still down when compared with 2013. However, in the first six month of 2018 it grew by 5.8 percent year-on-year up to €123.4 billion ($140 billion), according to Eurostat. Volume of imports from the bloc into Russia increased 1.4 percent up to €41.6 billion ($47 billion), while exports from Russia were up 3.5 percent to €81.2 billion ($92 billion). Russia is the third largest exporter to the EU and the bloc’s fifth biggest importer. Trade turnover between Russia and China has grown significantly to $77 billion, up by 30 percent from January to September this year. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Russian international trade in 2017. The countries expect bilateral trade to hit $100 billion this year and plan to steadily boost it to $200 billion by 2024.
loganair
03/11/2018
19:17
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Economic growth in Russia to hold steady at 1.5% this year and into 2019.
loganair
27/10/2018
21:21
Good financial results shown by Russian companies may facilitate the return of foreign investment to the country, Moody's senior vice president Kristin Lindow said. The cleanup that the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) has done in the banking system has significantly reduced capital flight,” said Lindow, Moody's leading analyst on Russia's sovereign rating. Recent data from professional services firm EY showed Russia made a top 5 list of Europe’s most attractive destinations for foreign investments. Last year, foreign investors put up capital in a record number of projects in Russia.
loganair
25/10/2018
08:11
Russian stock indices and national currency ruble strengthened after US President Donald Trump's national security adviser John Bolton said on Wednesday that no additional sanctions on Russia are being planned. Bolton added the administration is “still considering what we may be obligated to do” over the poisoning of a former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal. The West has accused Russia of the poisoning without providing any proof to Moscow. The United States approved sanctions against Russia after the March incident in Salisbury. The ruble strengthened to 65.51 against the US dollar and 74.74 against the euro. Russia’s RTS dollar index appreciated 1.46 percent, while the ruble-denominated MOEX was trading 1.43 percent higher compared to the previous session. “The news of a possible new meeting between the US and Russian presidents on November 11 could also be regarded as ground for optimism on the Russian market,” said Freedom Finance analyst Anastasia Sosnova. Investors hope that the talks “will contribute to minimizing geopolitical risks.” The ruble is still undervalued, mostly because of sanctions fear, said Alfa Capital analyst Daria Zhelannova.
loganair
24/10/2018
12:46
What sanctions? US, Japan & India join new Russian LNG project: Russia’s energy major Rosneft will build a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in partnership with US ExxonMobil, Japan's SODECO and India's ONGC Videsh. The estimated $15 billion cost would be spread among the four firms. Russia has an ambitious plan doubling its global LNG market share to 20 percent in the next decade. The country has two other LNG plants – Novatek's Yamal LNG and Gazprom's Sakhalin-2. On Tuesday, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) announced Saudi Arabia is ready to invest $5 billion in the Arctic LNG 2 project. In December, Russia opened the Yamal LNG project. Costing $27 billion, the plant will have three production lines and a total capacity of 16.5 million tons of LNG per year. Almost 96 percent of the Yamal LNG plant’s production has already been contracted.
loganair
19/10/2018
09:35
Personal note on the above article - I understand that the number of barrels of oil per day usage will continue to rise until about 2030, then plateau out until around 2040. If there is a massive decline in shale production in the US in the mid 2020's I can easily see the price of oil rising to $150 per barrel and $200 by 2030 which would swell the Russian government coffers, leaving them with a massive budget surplus.
loganair
19/10/2018
09:31
US shale’s glory days are numbered: There are some early signs that the US shale industry is starting to show its age, with depletion rates on the rise. A study from Wood Mackenzie found that some wells in the Permian Wolfcamp were suffering from decline rates at or above 15 percent after five years, much higher than the 5 to 10 percent originally anticipated. “If you were expecting a well to hit the normal 6 or 8 percent after five years, and you start seeing a 12 percent decline, this becomes more of a reserves issue than an economics issue,” said R.T. Dukes, a director at industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd., according to Bloomberg. As a result, “you have to grow activity year over year, or it gets harder and harder to offset declines.” Moreover, shale wells fizzle out much faster than major offshore oil fields, which is significant because the boom in shale drilling over the past few years means that there is more depletion in absolute terms than ever before. A slowdown in drilling will mean that depletion starts to become a serious problem. A separate study from Goldman Sachs takes a deep look at whether or not the shale industry is starting to see the effects of age. The investment bank says the average life span for “the most transformative areas of global oil supply” is between 7 and 15 years. Examples of these rapid growth periods include the USSR in the 1960s-1970s, Mexico and the North Sea in the late 1970s-1980s, Venezuela’s heavy oil production in the 1990s, Brazil in the early 2000s, and US shale and Canada’s oil sands in the 2010s. Each had their period in the limelight, but ultimately many of them plateaued and entered an extended period of decline, though some suffering steeper declines than others. US shale is entering the lower end of this range at about 7 years. While shale is still growing, there are some signs that the “Shale Tail,” which Goldman says is “the phase when shale becomes a less meaningful driver of global oil supply,” may not be that far off. Goldman lays out the five signals to watch out for, which would indicate that the glory days of shale are over. Although Goldman says the real trouble may be a few years off, there is some evidence that some of those dynamics are beginning to occur. The investment bank offers a breakdown as follows: 1. When inventory is being revised down, not up. This is already occurring in some areas, such as the Eagle Ford. Goldman notes that EOG Resources’ inventory fell in the Eagle Ford in the second quarter, with the company having drilled more wells than it added in new areas. 2. When well productivity stops improving. This one is inconclusive although perhaps it is beginning to become a concern. Goldman notes that the industry posed explosive productivity gains in 2017, but those gains slowed this year. Decline rates have accelerated in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin, but in the aggregate, there may still be some room for improvement for a little while. 3. When supply cost rises for structural reasons. Costs have climbed recently, but largely because of cyclical reasons, Goldman argues. High rates of drilling have created bottlenecks and pushed up costs, but those would come down if the cycle soured. It is still early for this metric. 4. When capital shifts to other regions. This looks the least threatening of the five warning signs. US shale remains a top priority and the oil majors have stepped up their spending in shale, pivoting out of other regions. Spending on non-OPEC non-shale crashed post-2014 and hasn’t recovered. There has been some shifting of capital within shale plays – such as from the Permian to the Eagle Ford and the Bakken – but this is mostly due to pipeline constraints. 5. When growth is no longer impactful/meaningful (lagging indicator). Goldman Sachs still sees US shale adding 1 million bpd+ at least through 2020. This indicator won’t become clear until the production gains actually start slowing down. The investment bank says that shale-focused companies are still a solid bet through the early 2020s, and it singles out companies like Concho Resources or Pioneer Natural Resources, two large Permian drillers. But by 2025, shale E&Ps will begin to see their stars fade. At that point, Goldman warns investors to pivot out of shale pure-play companies and focus either on diversified companies that have assets outside of shale, or on the integrated oil majors. “[W]e believe future resource additions outside shale deemed low on the cost curve will likely be positively received by investors,” Goldman stated, citing Hess Corp. as a company that might fit this description because of the huge oil fields it is developing with ExxonMobil in offshore Guyana. Put another way, depletion will become “a greater theme” in the future, so companies that are sitting on assets that deplete quickly will fall out of favor. Those that can stave off declines will fare much better. The investment bank still expects US shale to add around 1 million barrels per day each year through 2021 at least. But with early signs of strain, limits on productivity and steeper decline rates, it is clear that the industry’s glory days are numbered.
loganair
18/10/2018
20:59
The Central Bank of Russia has continued getting rid of US Treasury bonds in August. The share of Russian investments in American debt is getting close to zero. The reason is not only about politics and US sanctions against Russia, a broker at Otkritie bank Timur Nigmatullin said. The US Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, which makes American bonds cheaper, he said. “A further sale of US Treasury bonds by Russia will most likely be compensated by buying gold and opening short-term deposits at banks,” he said. The share of precious metals in the country's foreign reserves has reached a record 18 percent, closely approaching the share of dollar investments. India and Turkey have followed Russia's lead. Turkey has dropped out of the top-30 list of holders of American debt, while India has been liquidating its investment for five consecutive months.
loganair
16/10/2018
15:41
Washington’s aggressive policy against Moscow could be a sufficient reason behind the recent fall of the dollar’s share of global central-bank reserves, according to Goldman Sachs. Russia’s Central Bank has sold some $85 billion of its $150 billion holding of the US assets from April through June, says Goldman’s strategist Zach Pandl. The Central Bank of Russia likely sold a large portion of its dollar-denominated assets, and perhaps all of its US Treasuries held by US custodians, and transferred them to euro-denominated and yuan-denominated bonds in the second quarter,” the economist said.
loganair
10/10/2018
13:53
Russian Government budget 2020 & 2021 based on an Urals oil price of $55 giving a budget surplus of 1.1% in 2020 and 0.8% in 2021.
loganair
08/10/2018
18:56
The Russian Ministry of Finance said on Monday it may shift to the use of local currencies with European trade partners. “As we can see the main opportunity which can be realized in the short and medium term is the transition to settlements in national currencies with our European counterparts, including settlements involving the euro, and including for the delivery of our energy commodities,” Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev told reporters. According to him, such a decision would benefit Russia’s European partners in several ways including “This would, on one hand, strengthen the euro’s position as a reserve currency. He suggested that transition to euro payments would be simpler because the euro is already a reserve currency, and it would be logical to expect interest in the idea from European companies.
loganair
05/10/2018
11:03
The foreign reserves of the CBR in percentage terms as of 31 March 2018: US$....43.7% Euro...22.2% Gold...17.2% £.......7.9% Yuan....5.0% Can$....3.0% A$......1.0% Over the first 3 months of 2018 the amount held in Chinese Yuan has risen from 2.8%, and at the beginning of last year was just 0.1%. The reserves amount in US$ has fallen from 45.3% to 43.7% and Euro from 25.7% to 22.2%. The amount held in sterling, Canadian and Australian dollar have remained approximately the same in actual terms, fallen slightly in percentage terms as the total amount of reserves in actual terms has risen. When the next report comes out in 3 months time hopefully we'll know where the sale of the over $50bln of US Treasury's went in to.
loganair
05/10/2018
11:02
The foreign reserves of the CBR in percentage terms as of 31 March 2018: US$....43.7% Euro...22.2% Gold...17.2% £.......7.9% Yuan....5.0% Can$....3.0% A$......1.0% Over the first 3 months of 2018 the amount held in Chinese Yuan has risen from 2.8%, and at the beginning of last year was just 0.1%. The reserves amount in US$ has fallen from 45.3% to 43.7% and Euro from 25.7% to 22.2%. The amount held in sterling, Canadian and Australian dollar have remained approximately the same in actual terms, fallen slightly in percentage terms as the total amount of reserves in actual terms has risen. When the next report comes out in 3 months time hopefully we'll know where the sale of the over $50bln of US Treasury's went in to.
loganair
05/10/2018
10:08
The reasons why I think the sanctions against Russia are not effective: 1. Russia has a low dollar debt and a high dollar income from commodities that especially Europe needs. 2. Russia is not standing alone, there seems to be a pact of countries which are sticking together, Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Serbia & Vietnam with India and Brazil on the sidelines. Trade between Russia and India expected to increase 3 fold by 2025. Also Germany says it is a strong proponent of sanctions when it comes to Russia, however the 20% year on year increase in trade between Russia and Germany both in 2016 and 2017 says otherwise. I think that the sanctions against Russia are having a positive effect on Russia and their economy. For 2019 the Russian budget is based on an average Urals oil price of $60.
loganair
03/10/2018
17:20
Thompson, manager of the Neptune Emerging Markets fund, is betting big on Russian stocks: Ewan Thompson is betting big on Russia, attracted by the country's 'very high yielding and very cheap' stock market. Thompson is holding 16% of his £48.8 million Neptune Emerging Marketsfund in Russian stocks, more than four times their weighting in emerging market indices. With the oil price trading at a four-year high and, in rouble terms, an all-time high, Thompson has three Russian oil and gas companies in his top 10 holdings: Novatek (NVTK.MM), Lukoil (LKOH.MM) and Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM). Shares in the three are up 70%, 45% and 28% respectively since the turn of the year in rouble terms, with Thompson saying they 'barely blinked' in the face of US sanctions against Russia. The rouble is down around 9% against the pound over the same period. Thompson pointed to valuations on the Russian stock market, which he said was being offered at a 50% discount to broader emerging markets. Russia's Micex 10 index currently trades on a price-earnings ratio of just over six times. Russia was also a very profitable market, Thompson argued, as company returns on equity tended to be double that of broader emerging markets thanks to dominance of a few consolidated industries – an ‘oligopolistic’ structure. He argued Russia's cheapness had also provided some protection against the impact of US sanctions. ‘When you have these risks you don’t want those in markets which are priced for the best but when you have them priced for the worst there can be surprising resilience.’ After weighing on the fund's performance last year, as the only major global market to lose money in pound terms, the oil price rally has helped Russia emerge as one of the best performing markets in 2018, second only to the US in pound terms. Thompson's weighting to Russia is second only to the fund's holdings in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, at 28.8% of the fund. That's just below the 31% index weighting, while Thompson's holdings in some other Asian markets are substantially below the index. A 6% weighting to Taiwan is less than half that of the index and he holds 11.2% in South Korean stocks, versus a 14.7% index weighting.
loganair
02/10/2018
12:41
Bloomberg Intelligence - Russia looks undervalued. Brazil - hard to value, wait and see.
loganair
02/10/2018
08:51
Crude prices will likely reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and OPEC has no leverage to prevent such a scenario, an analyst has warned. Saudi Arabia has been unable to offset the lost Iranian crude exports. And “this essentially leaves the world’s only swing producer powerless to prevent a supply shock and subsequent price spike in the final quarter of this year,” he added. Iran could lose up to 1.5 million barrels per day when US sanctions kick in early November. In May, Iran sold 2.71 million bpd abroad, nearly three percent of daily global oil consumption. The US is rapidly increasing its production. However, the increase in US production is not enough to offset the loss of Iranian output.
loganair
02/10/2018
08:49
The Moscow Exchange has seen the extension of the last week’s rally. The ruble-traded MOEX index has updated an all-time high on Monday thanks to another jump in oil prices. The Russian ruble has also strengthened in the last two weeks, rebounding after the sell-off triggered by the latest US sanctions. The Russian currency has found its balance around 65.6 against the dollar and 76.1 against the euro. Good numbers in manufacturing are good news for the Russian stock market, too, according to analysts.
loganair
01/10/2018
09:06
Russia’s oil production averaged 11.347 million barrels per day (bpd) between September 1 and 27, up by more than 130,000 bpd compared to August and on course to set a new record-high. Russia is now producing at virtually full capacity. With Urals oil at $80bpd, cash is washing into the Russian Government budget. The surplus of the Russian budget in 2019 will be 1.8 percent of GDP, and the budget will be in surplus in the next three-year period," said First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. This surplus is based on Urals oil at around $60bpd. The macroeconomic outlook notes that GDP growth rate will remain around its current levels by the end of 2018, with economic growth expected to amount to 1.8% by year end. After the economy adjusts to the macroeconomic policy decisions taken earlier, particularly to the VAT increase, the Russian economic growth rates are projected to rise gradually to 3.1% by 2021 mainly due to the advanced growth of capital investments.
loganair
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