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[loganair] 22/5/2019 16:22

Russia has added a further 16.7 tonnes of gold in April.

The newly acquired gold brought Russia’s total reserves up to 2,183.46 tonnes, Russia’s central bank said in the latest press release.

The WGC (world gold council) reported that Russian gold output was up by 12.6% for the first three months of 2019, bringing output to 58.12 tonnes up from the 51.61 tonnes in the same period last year.

For the first three months of this year the CBR bought 55.4 tonnes of gold, buying 95% of the countries gold output.

[loganair] 15/5/2019 13:34

In April, Russian international reserves have grown to nearly $492 billion.

According to Elvira Nabiullina, head of the central bank, Russia is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves more than other states because of the economic and political risks that the country is facing.

The central bank has reportedly increased holdings of Chinese yuan and lowered the share of US dollars in its reserves over recent months. The country’s key monetary regulator stands ready to use FX swaps and repo operations if it sees a need to calm markets during times of stress, Nabiullina said on Tuesday, speaking at a conference in Zurich.

[loganair] 05/5/2019 17:57

US sanctions boosted Chinese investment in Russia, Pentagon admits:

The Russian economy has enjoyed increased Chinese investment as US sanctions have pushed Beijing closer to Moscow, according to a report released by the US Department of Defense.

The Russian-Chinese cooperation has been rapidly growing in recent years. Last year trade turnover between the two countries hit a record $108 billion, demonstrating a growth of around 25 percent.

[loganair] 25/4/2019 10:01

Over the past year, the amount invested in Sberbank has reduced by 50%, while Yandex has entered the top 10 investments.

Massive discount to Nav shows extremely poor sentiment in Russia, even though their companies are going from strength to strength with the countries economy growing well with low government debt and high foreign reserves.



JP Morgan - The trust outperformed its benchmark in February.

Stock selection in the consumer staples sector contributed to relative performance, most notably driven by our lack of exposure to Magnit, one of Russia’s leading retailers. After a sharp rally in the stock in January, on the back of an expected improvement in earnings and the appointment of a new President, the shares gave back some of their gains in February, as the company’s turnaround will be a lengthy and difficult process.

Additionally, our lack of exposure to Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), which fell 10.2% (in US dollar terms), also contributed to returns. The backdrop of a slowing market, the possibility of new competitors entering and the need to pass on VAT and roaming charges to consumers, is likely to create a tougher operating environment for leading players like MTS in 2019.

On the downside, positioning within the materials sector weighed on relative returns, specifically driven by underweight exposure to Polymetal International, a precious metals mining company. The stock has benefited from an improvement in sentiment towards commodities since the selloff in the fourth quarter, boosting prices of gold and steel.

The portfolio’s off-benchmark exposure to Qiwi, a payments business, also detracted from relative returns. The unexpected announcement that the CFO, Alexander Karavaev, will be leaving the company in May to take up a top management position at a privately held development company weighed on the stock during February.

[galeforce1] 25/4/2019 09:39

It's surprising that JRS's share buyback operation (6% of the company annually, which is chunky) is having so little effect at reducing the discount to NAV.

[loganair] 25/4/2019 09:12

Year on year, Gazprom is exporting more gas to Europe, Nordstream 2 pipeline to Northern Europe soon to come into operation and now the gas pipeline to China has just come into operation.

[galeforce1] 25/4/2019 08:59

Interesting discount here of about 17%. That's high even by JRS standards.

The investment mix seems to have changed a bit since I last looked. At 31/3 asset allocation was 51% Energy, with Lukoil at 18% of the total and Gazprom at nearly 14%.
Next is Materials (which is Mining)at 18%.

That's quite a bold strategy and given what's happened to the oil price in April it seems to have been right so far.

[loganair] 13/4/2019 15:55

Fidelity - Russia’s economy has been rolling along quite nicely of late, with growth reportedly rising to its highest in six years in 2018³. This performance has come despite sanctions and an agreement with OPEC to limit oil production.

The Mueller report in America, which concluded last month there was no collusion between Russia and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, is a positive in that it lessens the chances of a further tightening of sanctions this year.

[loganair] 05/4/2019 16:34

The foreign reserves of the CBR in percentage terms as of:

.......31 March 2018 / 30 Jun 2018 / 30 Sept 2018

US$.......43.7%.........21.9%..........32.1%
Euro......22.2%.........32.0%..........22.6%
Gold......17.2%.........16.7%..........16.6%
Yuan.......5.0%.........14.7%..........14.4%
£..........7.9%..........6.3%...........6.5%
Yen........0.0%..........4.5%...........4.2%
Can$.......3.0%..........2.9%...........2.7%
A$.........1.0%..........1.0%...........0.9%

The increase in US dollar reserves is the CBR holding US dollars in cash on deposit with other counterparties rather then in US Treasuries.

[loganair] 04/4/2019 20:46

Russia’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $489.5 billion in the last week of March, increasing 0.5 percent or $2.4 billion in seven days, the Central Bank of Russia has announced.

The recent growth brings the reserves’ gains to $7 billion during the period from March 15 to March 29. Russia’s international reserve funds have been steadily rising, adding a total of $21 billion since the beginning of the year, the central bank’s figures show. Russia’s reserves saw a significant boost of 8.3 percent last year, surging for third consecutive year.

While the country has been increasing foreign exchange reserves, its external debt fell by $64.4 billion or 12.4 percent from the beginning of last year to the lowest level in a decade, the Central Bank of Russia said in January.

Meanwhile, foreign investors are continuing to show increased interest in Russian companies’ stocks. Earlier this year, the central bank announced that non-Russian residents spent $576 million buying shares in Russian companies, setting a five-year record.

[loganair] 26/2/2019 17:54

“In 2018, in accordance with linked fuel prices, the average price of Gazprom (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) gas increased by 24.6 percent to $245.5 for 1,000 cubic meters,0” stressing that in 2016 it stood at $167.

Russia’s state-run energy major Gazprom said its share of sales of natural gas in the European Union has increased to 36.7 percent last year, rising over two percent against 34.2 percent in 2017.

Gazprom pledged to invest 1.2 trillion rubles into new energy projects this year with 320 billion rubles set to be spent on the construction of the Amur Gas Processing Plant.

Gazprom expects gas production in Russia to increase by up to 20 percent by 2035 and reach 875 billion cubic meters a year. Last year, gas output in Russia reached 725 billion cubic meters.

[loganair] 24/2/2019 12:09

Over the past 12 months Russia's international reserves have risen from $447.7bln to $475.9bln.

Foreign Exchange reserves have risen from $357.5bln to $376.6bln which shows none of the sale of US Treasuries have been used to buy gold with.

CBR value of Gold reserves have risen from $80.3bln to $89.4bln.

[loganair] 13/2/2019 15:14

Russian companies’ stocks attracted the most foreign investment in 5 years, adding nearly $576 million in January, the Central Bank of Russia reported. Investors also actively poured money into Russian bonds despite US sanctions.

The ruble-based Moscow stock exchange (MOEX) index has reached a new all-time high, surging 6.4 percent since the beginning of the year, the regulator said in its report on liquidity of the banking sector and the financial markets issued on Tuesday.

The index hit several records in January, finishing the month at 2536.28 points, and later reached a new all-time high of 2551.97 points on February 6.

At the same time the dollar-dominated MSCI Russia Index rose 13.2 percent reaching the figures of April 2018, when harsh anti-Russian sanction were introduced by the US.

The Russian state bond market (OFZ) also attracted foreign investors. Non-residents expanded their investment into Russian bonds by $837 million, the highest figure since January 2018. Half of them were purchased at auctions, while the other half at secondary market, where the inflow of foreign investment has been recorded for the first time in a year, according to the central bank.

“In January the situation in the Russian financial market significantly improved due to the growth of global demand for risky assets,” the regulator explained in the report. It added that softening of the US Federal Reserve’s rhetoric on monetary policy, as well as the progress in US-China trade talks and the rise of oil prices back to $60 per barrel positively affected investors’ sentiment.

Last year, Russia made a top 5 list of Europe’s most attractive destinations for foreign investments, according to the data published by professional services firm EY.

[loganair] 11/2/2019 11:15

The Russian ruble has been gaining ground on the US dollar and the euro after global credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded Russia’s sovereign rating to investment grade with a stable outlook.

Late on Friday, Moody’s announced the upgrade of Russia’s economy from Ba1 to Baa3, acknowledging the “positive impact” of government policies that managed to strengthen the country’s already robust public finances and may potentially help Moscow withstand possible US sanctions.

The agency noted that Washington is highly likely to introduce further anti-Russian sanctions in the coming months. The new measures by the White House could “be contained without material damage to the country’s credit profile,” Moody’s said.

“The sovereign’s vulnerability to such shocks has indeed materially diminished, and no longer constrains the rating to sub-investment grade,” the report said.

[loganair] 05/2/2019 10:55

The Moscow stock exchange (MOEX) index reached a new all-time high on Tuesday as global oil prices continue to climb. Russian stocks have also been surging since the US lifted sanctions against Russian aluminum giant Rusal.

The number of investors on the Moscow Exchange recently reached two million, with more than 700,000 people joining trading in 2018. Banks were most active in opening retail investment accounts last year.

The Russian economy has seen the biggest growth since 2012, expanding by 2.3 percent last year. GDP now amounts to 103.6 trillion rubles ($1.6 trillion). The growth surpassed earlier projections from Russia’s economy ministry, which expected the economic growth to stand at 2 percent, as well as the World Bank forecast.

Hotel and food businesses, as well as financial and insurance sectors, have seen the biggest gains, both marking more than a 6 percent growth, the data shows. Construction and mining operations also demonstrated a significant contribution to the overall economic growth, expanding 4.7 percent and 3.8 percent correspondingly.

The country’s economy has been expanding for three consecutive years since a 2.5 percent decline in 2015, the first full year under Western sanctions. The last time the country’s GDP growth was bigger was in 2012.

[loganair] 01/2/2019 15:31

Russia is still reducing its US Treasury holdings in November 2018 selling $1.815bln to $12.814bln.

In January 2018 Russia held $96.9bln worth of US Treasuries.

[loganair] 22/1/2019 15:17

Russia’s external debt has fallen by $64.4 billion or 12.4 percent from the beginning of last year, amounting to $453.7 billion as of January 1, 2019 – the lowest level since April 2009, according to Central Bank of Russia data.

The foreign debt has been dropping since mid-2014, when it reached its peak of around $733 billion in the wake US and EU sanctions. Since then, Russia managed to reduce debt by nearly $280 billion to reach the ten year minimum. In the fourth quarter of 2018 alone, the external debt was reportedly reduced by more than $16 billion or some 3.5 percent.


The regulator said that Russia is expected to repay more than $4.8 billion in debt of 40 of the largest non-financial corporate borrowers in the first quarter of 2019. $800 million dollars is expected to be paid off in January, $772 million in February, and $3.3 billion in March.

Earlier this year, the Central Bank reported that foreign exchange reserves surged for the third consecutive year, boosted by 8.3 percent over the 12 months as of the beginning of 2019. Reserves saw growth ti over $468 billion from $432 billion at the beginning of last January.

[loganair] 20/1/2019 18:35

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) purchased a record 8.8mn ounces of gold, or about 274 tonnes, in 2018 reaching 2,112 tons, worth $87bln and accounting for 18.6% of the CBR’s total gross international reserves, according to the regulator's website, up from the 7.2mn ounces (224 tonnes) the central bank bought in 2017, an increase of 22.2% y/y, the CBR reported.

The central bank buys its gold from Russian commercial banks.

Personal note - It seems to me that in 2018 the CBR bought almost the entire years production of mined gold in Russia

The CBR bought $44bn worth of the Chinese currency in the second quarter of 2018 and Russia held $67bn in yuan as of mid-2018.

BKS Broker senior analyst Sergei Suverov noted that the use of the euro is an effective alternative to the greenback in international trade. "But if there's a need to get some insurance in the event of a crisis, the Swiss franc may be of interest."

Personal note - A few years ago the CBR held Swiss Francs in its foreign currency reserves and has recently been buying the Japanese Yen which they also held many years ago before completely selling down to zero in its reserves.

[loganair] 17/1/2019 13:40

Russia is on track to break its own record trade surplus that had been reached in 2011, two years before the US and its Western allies imposed economic sanctions on the country, reports French business daily Les Échos.

Russia’s trade surplus totaled $191.4 billion from January through November last year, according to the media. The record on positive trade balance was fixed in 2011, when the trade surplus totaled $198 billion.

Earlier, the country’s customs body reported that Russia’s overall trade volume amounted to $629 billion for the first eleven months of the last year, while the exports surged 27.5 percent to $410.2 billion.

By the end of last year, the volume of Russia’s non-energy exports set a new record, hitting $147 billion.

[loganair] 15/1/2019 15:59

JP Morgan’s global equity strategists are positive on emerging markets versus developed markets this year, but are ‘neutral’; on China whereas they prefer Brazil, Chile, Russia and Indonesia. In addition the analysts say global emerging markets are cheap, trading at lower price-to-earnings ratios than in their last bear market in 2015-16.

[loganair] 10/1/2019 09:59

The Central Bank of Russia has moved further away from reliance on the US dollar and has axed its share in the country’s foreign reserves to a historic low, transferring about $100 billion into euro, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan.

The share of the US currency in Russia’s international reserves portfolio has dramatically decreased in just three months between March and June 2018, from 43.7 percent to a new low of 21.9 percent, according to the Central Bank’s latest quarterly report, which is issued with a six-month lag.

The money pulled from the dollar reserves was redistributed to increase the share of the euro to 32 percent and the share of Chinese yuan to 14.7 percent. Another 14.7 percent of the portfolio was invested in other currencies, including the British pound (6.3 percent), Japanese yen (4.5 percent), as well as Canadian (2.3 percent) and Australian (1 percent) dollars.

The Central Bank's total assets in foreign currencies and gold increased by $40.4 billion from July 2017 to June 2018, reaching $458.1 billion.

[loganair] 10/1/2019 09:27

The growth rate of the Russian economy increased last year, while inflation remained low, the World Bank said in its 2019 World Economic Outlook.

“Although economic sanctions tightened, Russia experienced relatively low and stable inflation and increased oil production. As a result of robust domestic activity, the Russian economy expanded at a 1.6 percent pace in the year just ended,” said the report.

In Russia, “growth has been resilient, supported by private consumption and exports,” the bank said, projecting a short-term slowdown this year to 1.5 percent.

In 2020 and 2021, the bank expects an increase in the growth rate of Russia’s GDP to 1.8 percent.

[loganair] 22/12/2018 22:39

Last month Russia once again added substantially to its gold reserves with the central bank taking in another 1.2 million ounces (37.3 tonnes). This has already made 2018 a record year for increasing its gold holdings, with still another month to go,

Altogether the nation has added almost 265 tonnes of gold to its reserves so far this year and is heading for 300 tonnes for the full year if the current rate of gold purchases continues. Interestingly this possible target looks to be in excess of the country’s total annual gold mine production - estimated by the major consultancies at around 270-280 tonnes - the world’s third largest after China and Australia. It is possible that Russia’s 2018 gold output may have risen a little but probably not by up as much as around 20-30 tonnes.