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[loganair] 27/9/2018 13:21

Trade turnover between Russia and China has been rapidly growing and is expected to reach $100 billion this year. Moscow seeks to double the figure in the next six years.

“It is planned to increase Russia’s trade with China to $200 billion and Chinese investment in the Russian economy to $15 billion,” said a document for the government’s activities for the period up to 2024.

The document, released on Thursday, also envisages boosting trade with other countries. Russia’s trade with India may reach $30 billion by 2024. Trade with the Middle East and North African nations is expected to amount to $50 billion, while trade with sub-Saharan countries could hit $7 billion, and Latin America, $20 billion.

China is Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Russian international trade in 2017. Bilateral trade between the two countries grew by 31.5 percent, reaching $87 billion last year. They are also promoting settlements in ruble and yuan, bypassing the US dollar and other Western currencies.

In 2017, nine percent of payments for supplies from Russia to China were made in rubles; Russian companies paid 15 percent of Chinese imports in renminbi (yuan).

[loganair] 27/9/2018 09:42

Total sees oil prices going to $100 per barrel.

[loganair] 18/9/2018 14:37

The recent growth in the Russian currency has helped the ruble-traded MOEX index reach an all-time high on Tuesday.

The index rose to 2,390 points for the first time in history after the ruble strengthened to 67.7 against the dollar and 79.1 against the euro. Earlier in September, the Russian currency had suffered a deep plunge against reserve currencies amid a new US sanctions threat.

Moscow Exchange’s dollar-denominated RTS index also rose on Tuesday. It reached 1,111 points for the first time since August.

“The MOEX index surpassed a historical high due to the strengthening of the ruble, which led to a rise in the price of ruble shares of Mechel, Rusal, Alrosa, AFK Sistema, Magnit, Sberbank,” said Artem Deev, leading analyst at Amarkets.

The companies the analyst mentioned are some of the largest enterprises in Russia, in areas such as banking, retail and mining, and their well-being is important for the Russian economy and stock market.

The share of oil and gas sector securities in the MOEX index exceeds 50 percent, and the weight of Sberbank shares is more than 12 percent, which has resulted in the index rallying this week.

The Russian stock market has every chance of further growth due to the stability of oil prices.

[loganair] 12/9/2018 19:19

I see that the price of Urals Oil is and has been trading around the $77 per barrel which is excellent news for the Russian Government budget and all this oil and gas is bringing Russia in truck loads of dollars and euros.

[loganair] 05/9/2018 12:37

All good for Russia and JRS - Oil expected to maintain an average of $70 per barrel through to 2020 then rise to an average of $80 during the early years of the 2020's.

Almost every month Gazprom is exporting a record amount of gas to Europe.

In 2016, Russia became the world leader in wheat exports. Since the early 2000s, its share of the world wheat market has quadrupled.

Russia’s agriculture exports have surged by almost a third in the first five months of 2018. The country exported 29.5 percent more agriculture and food products, worth $9.5 billion, than in the same period last year. In particular, the export of wheat through May surged to 17.1 million tons worth $3.1 billion.

Saudi Arabia has announced plans to become a major hub for Russian agricultural products in the Middle East.

Overall, agricultural production in Russia is projected to grow three percent this year, from last year’s 120.7 million tons. That would be the best-ever harvest for Russia, even counting the Soviet era.

[loganair] 22/8/2018 20:01

In the second half of 2017, the amount of Chinese Yuan held as reserves by the CBR rose from 0.1% to 2.8%. Even the percentage amount the CBR hold in Sterling has also risen from 7.6% to 8.3%.

The amount that the CBR hold in Euro terms has fallen from 32.2% to 21.7%. They no longer hold any Japanese Yen or Swiss Francs, however their holdings in both the Canadian dollar at 3.1% and Australian dollar at 1.0% remains constant.

[loganair] 09/8/2018 10:31

andyj - Many of the big Russian companies are making record profits. Gazprom is exporting a record amount of gas to Europe.

The Russia Government Budget is going to be one of the few countries that will be in Surplus.

[andyj] 09/8/2018 04:14

More sanctions with the likelihood of more draconian sanctions in November. Difficult to see the fund making any definitive upward movement, despite the incredible potential here.

[loganair] 19/7/2018 10:58

Russia is continuing to diversify state reserves away from US debt. The latest data from the US Treasury shows that Russia's share hit an 11-year minimum and totaled only $14.9 billion.

The share of US sovereign debt bonds in Russia's portfolio has been reduced dramatically in recent months. Russia held $96.1 billion in US Treasuries in March before selling half its holdings in April, dropping to 22nd place among major foreign holders of American treasury securities at $48.7 billion.

The head of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Elvira Nabiullina said in May that slashing of the holdings was result of the systematic assessment of all kinds of risks, including financial, economic and geopolitical.


It is interesting to note that the CBR Foreign Exchange Reserves have risen over the past month which strongly suggests they have been replacing their dollar reserves with other currencies.

[loganair] 02/7/2018 14:41

Russia and Saudi Arabia want to invite all OPEC members to create a permanent alliance - the "super OPEC", in which, of course, these countries will take the lead. For Russia, this is an undoubted advantage, and Saudi Arabia can play the role of a long-term partner and ally,” TeleTrade's leading analyst Anastasia Ignatenko said.

In such an alliance, countries can pay less attention to US pressure, because Russia and Saudi Arabia account for one-fifth of all oil produced in the world, she notes. “This will automatically ensure control of the oil market and the security of its interests.”

Russia and Saudi Arabia will have the opportunity to increase oil production on their own, since many OPEC countries are unable to boost output despite last week's agreement.

[loganair] 02/7/2018 14:28

At the beginning of the year there was talk about $80 oil, then a couple of months ago $90, today there is talk of even $100.

If $100 oil turns out to happen then the Russian Government will be swimming in money as will their big energy producers.

[velvetide] 28/6/2018 14:46

Russia appears to be oblivious to EM problems, chart looks good, maybe about to re-rate?

[loganair] 27/6/2018 09:14

With the sanctions on Iran the analysts are talking about the real possibility of $90 oil, which will mean much bigger profits for the likes of Gazprom, LukOil and Rosneft.

At the current oil price Russia already has a budget surplus of $16bln. $90 oil will add a further $20bln plus to the Russian government budget.


What ever anyone thinks about Russia in Crimea, because of Russian investment in their agriculture this year Crimea will see a record grain harvest.

[loganair] 25/6/2018 10:37

The most interesting thing is that the dollar assessment of the Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves for April increased by $1.3 billion. I.e., the narrative that bonds were sold to urgently patch some financial hole is absolute groundless. The American bonds were sold, and the received means were invested in some other assets.

The central bank publishes its reports on the management of reserves with a big time lag, and we will learn the exact answer to the question “what assets were the received dollars invested in” approximately in half a year, but it is possible to consider some possibilities already now.

One scenario is the ratio of currencies in the Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves underwent serious revision, and the proportion of dollar assets was significantly reduced due to the sale of American bonds and the purchase of securities in other currencies — most likely, in Euros. It is precisely such a scenario that represents the greatest interest from the point of view of western analysts, some of who see these Russian financial manoeuvres as a rehearsal of similar actions that may be taken by the People’s Republic of China.

Other factors could also be as the Fed raises interest rates the value of US Treasuries fall.

"We are diversifying the foreign exchange part of our reserves," Nabiullina the CBR Governor noted, speaking at the Russian State Duma on June 19.

[loganair] 19/6/2018 17:46

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) commonly factors in all kinds of risks when allocating the country's reserves, said the CBR chief, commenting on a major sell-off of US Treasury bonds.

“We pursue the policy of safe and diversified holdings,” CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said while answering questions before Russia's lower house of parliament. “We assess financial, economic and geopolitical risks while allocating the country’s financial reserves.”

The comments came shortly after the latest statistics showed that in April, CBR dumped some $47bn out of $96.1bn it had in US treasury bonds, accounting for nearly half of Russia’s overall holdings. The step moved Russia six places down to 22nd place on the list of major foreign holders of US debt. Nabiullina refused to say what the central bank did since April.

“We reveal the information about investments with a time lag of around six months. That’s the Central Bank’s policy.” she said. “We do not disclose the most recent information, as we are the biggest holder of Russia’s reserves. When we publish the data, the entire new structure will be clearly seen.”



It is interesting to note as at the end of May that the Russian Central Bank was holding a similar amount of Foreign Exchange in its reserves as it did in March and April therefore what has the CBR replaced its US treasury bonds with?

[loganair] 19/6/2018 17:44

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) commonly factors in all kinds of risks when allocating the country's reserves, said the CBR chief, commenting on a major sell-off of US Treasury bonds.

“We pursue the policy of safe and diversified holdings,” CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said while answering questions before Russia's lower house of parliament. “We assess financial, economic and geopolitical risks while allocating the country’s financial reserves.”

The comments came shortly after the latest statistics showed that in April, CBR dumped some $47bn out of $96.1bn it had in US treasury bonds, accounting for nearly half of Russia’s overall holdings. The step moved Russia six places down to 22nd place on the list of major foreign holders of US debt. Nabiullina refused to say what the central bank did since April.

“We reveal the information about investments with a time lag of around six months. That’s the Central Bank’s policy.” she said. “We do not disclose the most recent information, as we are the biggest holder of Russia’s reserves. When we publish the data, the entire new structure will be clearly seen.”



It is interesting to note as at the end of May that the Russian Central Bank was holding a similar amount of Foreign Exchange in its reserves as it did in March and April therefore what has the CBR replaced its US treasury bonds with?

[loganair] 18/6/2018 17:28

At the current share price the dividend yield for this year is expected to be above 6%.

The Company's current income forecast for the year indicates continuing growth in dividend income. Following the pattern of the previous year, the Company's interim dividend is expected to be considered by the Board for declaration in September 2018 and is likely to represent the large majority of the total annual dividend, with a significantly smaller final dividend being recommended for approval by the shareholders at the Annual General Meeting for payment in March 2019.

[loganair] 08/6/2018 18:43

When the next EU vote on maintaining sanction on Russia comes along the new Italian government as said they will vote against continuing to maintain sanctions.

In order for the EU to maintain its sanctions against Russia all 28 member states have to vote in favour.

[loganair] 03/6/2018 10:04

Mark Mobius tilts towards China, South Korea and is also bullish on Brazil and Russia where consumer Discretionary goods and services benefiting from domestic consumption growth in these countries.

"The opportunities are incredible for the right investment."

He remains optimistic in the emerging markets of Vietnam, China and India and believes we're going to see lot's of opportunities in these markets down the road especially India has got tremendous opportunities.

Mobius also small- and mid-size mainland Chinese companies public in Hong Kong. Fintech is a focus area, as is firms that assist traditional corporations to better deploy internet technologies. "That's where the growth opportunities are," he said.

"China is now a huge market, and it's growing because we are now getting more and more access," he said. “With the A-share market coming into the availability of foreign investors, the opportunities are incredible”.


He also says he expects a 30% correction in the US market as a result of massive out flows from ETF's. Currently global ETF stock assets stand at $4.7 trillion.

[loganair] 25/5/2018 19:58

The International Monetary Fund has revised its outlook for the Russian economy, and there is some good news for Moscow, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

“Russia has put in place an admirable macroeconomic framework—saving for a rainy day, letting the exchange rate float, introducing inflation targeting, and shoring up the banking system,” she said.

“As a result, it was able to weather tough times well, and today it has virtually no fiscal deficit, a solid current account balance, and very little debt.”

To achieve more, Russia should increase productivity, diversify its economy from oil and gas, boost investment in healthcare and education, as well as reducing market concentration, and integrating more into the global economy, Lagarde said.

As for the global economic outlook, Lagarde said the IMF is optimistic. Last year, global growth was 3.8 percent, the fastest since 2011, and it is likely to grow 3.9 percent this year. “Once again, the momentum is broad-based, encompassing the United States, Europe, Japan, China, Russia, and many other emerging market and developing countries,” she said

There is bad news too. “The not-so-good news is that there is a risk of storms in the forecast. Global debt is at a record high—public and private debt together has reached $164 trillion, or 225 percent of global GDP,” Lagarde said.

“Financial stability is also looking fragile, due to high debt and rising financial market volatility—especially from the increasing risk of capital flow reversals in emerging markets. And there are darkening clouds from the risk of a retreat from global trade and multilateral cooperation,” she added.

[loganair] 25/5/2018 15:22

In 2017, trade between Germany and Russia grew significantly despite sanctions. German exports to Russia increased to €25.9 billion ($31.9 billion), while imports from Russia grew to €31.4 billion ($38.7 billion). The figures represent a 20.2 percent rise in exports and an 18.7 percent growth in imports, according to the German Federal Statistical Office data.

[loganair] 23/5/2018 15:25

Russian economic recovery under way in April despite sanctions:

Retail sales in Russia picked up in April, while real wages growth exceeded expectations as the unemployment rate fell, suggesting an economic recovery was under way, according to data released on Tuesday.

After two years of recession caused by a slump in oil prices and Western sanctions, the Russian economy is now recovering along with oil, the rouble has generally stabilized and global commodity prices remain favorable for an economy dependent on exports of energy and raw materials.

Retail sales, the key gauge for consumer demand, the primary driver of economic growth, were up 2.4 percent year-on-year in April after a 2.0 percent rise in the year to March.

Capital investment, the next most important driver, was up 3.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the same period a year earlier.

“The latest Russian activity figures suggest that GDP growth picked up to about 1.5 percent year-on-year at the start of the second quarter,” the research firm Capital Economics said in a note.

“These data also provide early evidence that the tightening of U.S. sanctions and the fall in the ruble in early April have had little impact on the real economy so far.”

This year, the economy is projected to expand by 1.5-2.0 percent, according to the central bank’s forecasts, after growing by 1.5 percent in 2017.

Real wages, which are adjusted for inflation, rose 7.8 percent year-on-year in April, beating analysts’ call for a 5.9 percent increase.

At the same time, the unemployment rate inched lower to 4.9 percent in April, its lowest since August 2017, from 5.0 percent in March.

[loganair] 22/5/2018 10:07

Syme, manager of the JO Hambro Global Emerging Markets Opportunity said 'Russia is the biggest emerging market beneficiary of oil price rises.'

It produces an annual 2.9 billion barrel oil surplus. Oil's move from an average price of $54 in 2017 to $77 last week is worth $67 billion to the country, or 4.3% of GDP.

‘At this oil price, Russian assets should be performing very strongly, yet the Russian ruble has fallen 7.8% against the US dollar year-to-date.’

‘Politics notwithstanding, if there is one emerging market that most benefits from this environment, it is Russia.’

[loganair] 21/5/2018 09:30

Despite U.S. sanctions impacting on some elements of Russia’s foreign trade, recent reports suggest that, in part because of the strong oil price the country is currently running a budget surplus.