Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 17:55

The markets are only going to open on a amicable resolution in Ukraine..... and what will that do to stocks ? Gasprom have already found new markets ...This share price is absurd ..

[glavey] 18/3/2022 17:54

Maths is not my strong point but it seems that the MOEX listed assets would need to rise by around 1820% on exchange re-opening alone to justify the current share price of 88p.

Or to put it another way, the suggestion is that they are presently being over 18x overvalued.

On the other hand the trust warns that it may not be possible to realise any value at all from them anyway.

Hence the current overvaluation is somewhere between 18.2x and infinity. Hmmm...

[lw425] 18/3/2022 17:52

Albert.

My understanding is that when the Russian markets open the investments will again be valued and an appropriate NAV provided? Is this correct?

The Russian stock markets could reopen this week or week after.

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 17:37

Kazakhstan has NO sanctions against it

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 17:36

You would love that ....It actually means nothing ... they are covering their backs !!The Kazakhstan positions in normal mkt conditions are worth several times today's mkt cap !!Explain that one ?

[quepassa] 18/3/2022 17:32

THUD.


With about 45 million shares in issue, I make that a revised NAV of c. 36p per share, down from 40p at noon.


"As at 17(th) March 2022, the Company's unaudited net assets, after the application of a fair value, were GBP16,296,992 and the breakdown as a percentage of unaudited net assets was as follows"

and (oh dear):-

"While the Company has applied a fair value against these investments there is no certainty that any value will be achievable from them over the short, medium or even long term due to the factors arising following the imposition of additional sanctions against Russia."


It's always the after-hours RNS's which are the gut-wrenchers.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[albert arthur] 18/3/2022 16:56

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JRS/update-from-the-company/15375315

[soleman1] 18/3/2022 14:47

Look at the trade prices you'll figure it out

[quepassa] 18/3/2022 14:39

ADVFN currently shows:-

177,000 Sells

vs

85,000 Buys


Not a propitious time to be bottom-fishing with big sellers still at large.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[fabius1] 18/3/2022 13:57

AA - Fair enough.

[albert arthur] 18/3/2022 13:33

I'm an algorithmic trader, and also an investor, I tranche in and out at EMA targets. Also have a bot that I coded which trades for me. However, I'm more of an investor. Generally I run long positions, however, lots of cash on the bench in this climate, and seeking opportunity in the undervalued; I see with not much downside and major potential upside in this. I'm happy to lose whatever I put in... This fund was a trade at first, I traded from £1.16p to the EMA35 at the time which was £1.80p. This market is not even really reactive at the moment, I've been finding things on low RSI being oversold, then waiting for ATL low entry targets where volume comes in... at that point I'm happy to take positions, especially if the targets up are good. This has turned into a hold for me.

[fabius1] 18/3/2022 13:14

'There will be no back-stepping now QP, the decision has been made!

Many catalysts on the horizon will move this, just look at recent past wars, and similar funds (all recovered and are above crashed prices, some at ATH) Right now, and I feel for the people in the war. They are the ones hit.

However the investments of this fund, won’t really lose any enterprise value medium term, even near term there will be fast recovery. I actually think they will gain from it.

I don’t see this as binary, but say you have a simply £10k, worst case, you lose it all (I Don ‘t see that happening), best case it’s does 10* today’s price minimum £100k (realistic) Also, this price is at ATL EMA low, it’ll not go lower. I don’t care what funds do, I’m buying more…'

Albert Arthur. Trading is one thing, fundamental factors are another, and the latter ultimately rules the former. If you are a trader, you will know that rule number one is risk assessment/damage limitation. You are clearly taking the view that your risk to reward is 10% and you are happy to lose that. Like many, I suspect you will have averaged down on the move up to 180 (100% move) and perhaps even sold down 50% of your original holding. You say you are adding. What if the market moves sharply down to test support. Are you OK with that? This is an illiquid fund and many here are investors and I would think they have a slightly different slant on things. Let's not mix our metaphors :).

[fabius1] 18/3/2022 12:49

As for fund managers bailing, look around the world. Consensus financial objectivity has been gradually subjugated in favour of central 'big' government mantras. The political tail has been wagging the dog for many years now. Consider the numerous political agendas across the board in tandem with central bank monetary policy (manipulated by the real money behind the scenes) and draw your own conclusions. As for the shares held in Russian companies, I am quite sure they will be more than happy to buy them back at a healthy discount. No need for underhand confiscations, the big holders are queuing up to hand them back under western dictate. But let's not forget, all the big players are really members of the same club. The media attention is little more than the usual sideshow and when this is over it will be onto the next 'big thing'. Yep, herding the herd is very much alive and kicking.

[biggest bill] 18/3/2022 10:19

I've added immodestly.

[galeforce1] 18/3/2022 10:05

That's an interesting discussion here over the last 24 hours.

There are good arguments for buying, selling and doing nothing.

But personally I'm with Albert Arthur's view, that at 90p JRS is a good asymmetric punt. There's a big potential upside and limited downside. If it's wound-up after an EGM there will still be some value.

So I've opened an account at HL, which is still allowing opening trades, and added modestly.

[loganair] 18/3/2022 09:08

And all the women and children the United States brutally maimed and killed in Vietnam.

The horrific picture of the young Vietnamese girl with her skin painfully dripping off her body after being brutally napalmed by the United States.

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 08:18

Syria ... Libya ... Afghanistan.... The list is end less

[snookered4] 18/3/2022 08:17

CC2014 - you could also level that at the UK and US for invading Iraq and Afghanistan!

Just put your cash under the mattress - you can then sleep soundly at night!!

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 07:53

I think u are very bitter ....Is it anything to do with your Raven position ? That's gone very sour

[amaretto1] 18/3/2022 07:41

Who's buying all the cheap stock ?

[albert arthur] 18/3/2022 07:18

Understand what you're saying, I guess it dependence on what term you're thinking, expecting some easing of sanctions in the near term, as a potential part of the deal already mentioned of stateside. Also, expecting extreme volatility on the Russian markets when then open. Expecting investment in resources by retail investors to fly and the Russian market to get loaded. Nobody wants their cash in the bank, BTC is risky and Russo don't like it, when the markets open in Russia I think there will be a scramble in, rather than out. Technically this is due a bounce.. fundamentally, right now the price is here from uncertainty and fear IMO and red tape. World is a moving target and things change very quickly.

[jonwig] 18/3/2022 06:58

Albert Arthur - personally I'd be amazed if you were right! A bounce would certainly be possible, but recovery here to anything like previous levels, no.

The west is expending huge effort in decoupling itself from Russia's dominance in commodities and any reversion would just be an indication that Russia could repeat its policy. Besides, the devastation caused to Ukraine needs to be repaired, and means should be found to use the frozen reserves to accomplish this.

Even replacing Putin wouldn't quickly change the ingrained nature of Russian society: a grossly unequal kleptocracy.

Incidentally, the reported resignation of the CB chief doesn't seem to have reached mainstream media, apart from the Daily Mirror and Daily Star.