Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[albert arthur] 17/3/2022 21:58

There will be no back-stepping now QP, the decision has been made!Many catalysts on the horizon will move this, just look at recent past wars, and similar funds (all recovered and are above crashed prices, some at ATH) Right now, and I feel for the people in the war. They are the ones hit. However the investments of this fund, won't really lose any enterprise value medium term, even near term there will be fast recovery. I actually think they will gain from it. I don't see this as binary, but say you have a simply £10k, worst case, you lose it all (I Don 't see that happening), best case it's does 10* today's price minimum £100k (realistic) Also, this price is at ATL EMA low, it'll not go lower. I don't care what funds do, I'm buying more...

[quepassa] 17/3/2022 21:06

yes but that was formal AGM business which had been tabled weeks/months before the invasion - and the vote took place before the full realisation of what was happening hit home and ahead of any sanctions being announced.

I guess also that the vast majority of AGM votes had already been received electronically beforehand (and before the invasion) and were irrevocable.

put another way, if the AGM was happening today instead of three or four weeks ago - how do you think the voting would now be?

and the significant and major shareholders -namely the asset managers mentioned in earlier posts- who probably voted for the continuation are now rapidly voting again.....

...this time with their feet.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[bondholder] 17/3/2022 20:56

Would it not be a breach of fiduciary duty?

[loganair] 17/3/2022 20:17

QP - It seems to me winding down will be very difficult considering just two weeks ago and after the invasion, JP Morgan recommended that the Trust be kept going and there was a massive vote in favour of the trust to be kept going for another 5 years.

[loganair] 17/3/2022 20:14

Time and time again Elvira Nabiullina has financially saved Russia, putting the economy on a strong footing.

Even after the collapse in the Rouble after Russia went into the Ukraine, she said that the Central Bank will not use its foreign currency reserves to defend the Rouble, as Turkey did trying to halt the slide in the Lira. All Turkey did in the end was to use up, waste 95% of its FX reserves.

[quepassa] 17/3/2022 20:12

i'd need to check carefully on the exact terms of the Trust documents - but I would be very surprised if there weren't both market change and force majeure covenants and of course they should be able to call an EGM at any time.

I'd question whether "winding down" automatically assumes that commitments will be fulfilled to term. Commitments can normally be curtailed in exceptional circumstances.

Blowing over in a few months time - i think you are highly,highly optimistic on that one. But i hope again that i am wrong.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[amaretto1] 17/3/2022 20:06

Do u actually have a long position here ? And if so why ?

[loganair] 17/3/2022 20:00

A massive loss for Russia:

The highly-respected head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, 58, has reportedly handed in her resignation amid claims she stood up to Putin over his war in Ukraine, which is into its third week.

The head of the Russia Bank's resignation is rumoured to have come after she privately argued with Putin over the devastation faced by Russians from Western sanctions he did not expect to be so serious.

She reportedly told Putin that his invasion of Ukraine has plunged the Russian economy into a “sewer”.

The loss of Nabiullina, would pose a huge blow to Putin and signal a deepening crisis for the crisis-ridden Russian economy which has seen the rouble plunge and the massive loss of international financial links.

She is respected both in Moscow and the West as a highly competent technocrat, one of the best central bankers in the world who has guided Russia through relative stability even amid worsening relations with the West - but the war on Ukraine may have changed her line.

She showed her concern for the economic impact of Western sanctions in the wake of Putin’s invasion by wearing black and no brooch in a press conference after his invasion of Ukraine.

She reportedly warned him in a video meeting he will soon face tearaway inflation at around 70 per cent and shocked him with the sewer analogy. She had earlier made clear that high inflation could undermine the central bank’s credibility.

“Putin was so embarrassed by such audacity that he almost immediately ended the meeting,” said one account.

But her loss at the helm of the Russian Central Bank - especially in a period of unprecedented turmoil - could itself deepen Moscow’s economic crisis.

[soleman1] 17/3/2022 19:53

Given that JP Morgan just put to holders a resolution for a guaranteed minimum of five years more I don't believe legally they can liquidate the fund. Jaime Dimon didn't say when questioned by lawmakers this was his intention he said no new business and winding down which assumes all current obligations will be fulfilled to term. To be honest though in a few months time when it has all blown over in parts of the globe not directly affected the climate will surely have stabilised.

[amaretto1] 17/3/2022 19:20

American Oli Garth maybe

[amaretto1] 17/3/2022 19:19

Who's buying all the stock ?

[quepassa] 17/3/2022 18:51

1.

Post 1167

i don't think so.


2.

Post 1166 which received 7 upvotes

"It looks as if the asset managers don't want to be seen as supporting Russia in any way"

I wonder whether those words will be prophetic and self-fulfilling . Because the manager of this fund is itself an asset manager - JP Morgan Asset Management Limited.


i hope i am wrong but i just don't see how America's most highly regarded bank can be seen to be lending its name for much longer to a publicly listed fund investing in the securities of a sanctioned country.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[albert arthur] 17/3/2022 17:43

Agree: Lots of internal controls saying stay away, trim etc ... ( be seen to be doing something) However this is a window of opportunity for us, because once things are all resolved, they will all be buying back as quickly as possible.

[biggest bill] 17/3/2022 17:38

It looks as if the asset managers don't want to be seen as supporting Russia in any way and are willing to take huge losses in their urge to virtue signal. The trouble is that the people who actually pay for this will be the investors whose money they are mismanaging.

[biggest bill] 17/3/2022 17:20

Asset managers have the cheek to complain that private investors have a short term investing horizon.

[loganair] 17/3/2022 17:16

Less than two weeks ago these asset managers voted overwhelmingly in favour for the trust to continue and now they are falling over themselves to sell out of the very same trust.

Before all this began the 3 largest share holders in JRS were City of London, Lazard and Allspring and were the only three that had a notifiable interest in the trust.

[biggest bill] 17/3/2022 17:12

The last holding rns is from Lazard Asset Managers. So it looks as if all the big holders are reducing their stakes.

[albert arthur] 17/3/2022 16:04

Be nice when we've cleaned them out...

[albert arthur] 17/3/2022 16:03

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JRS/holding-s-in-company/15373362

[galeforce1] 17/3/2022 11:14

This morning on R4 I heard Jeremy Bowen give a good summary of the situation and the prospects for a deal.
He said that for a deal to work both sides have to be able to claim some sort of victory. That looks possible in principle (Russia gets Crimea and Donbas recognised, Ukraine expels the invading force).
But there are significant grey areas - in particular, what happens to those parts of S-E Ukraine that the Russians have occupied? Are the Russians really going to give these up after fighting hard to take them? He sounded sceptical about this. But at the same time, conceding a land bridge to Crimea from Russia is never going to be acceptable to Ukraine. So the talks may run on for a while.
My guess is that Russia will eventually withdraw to the Crimea and Donbas, and these places will be recognised as legitimate autonomous areas (something that should already have happened, IMO).
Bowen said that nothing is happening in the centre of Kyiv, but there's some flighting about 15-20 kms north of the city.

[loganair] 17/3/2022 10:36

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Russians haven,t already lost 1/4 to 1/3rd of their tanks, armoured vehicles and helicopters etc due to either being taken out by the Ukrainians or just breaking down and within another 10 days maybe 50% will be out of action.

I also understand that the Russian ground forces came in with their dress uniforms in their pack packs instead of extra ammunition or food as they fully expected with in 3 to 5 days to be parading down the Midan in central Kiev or with in 72 hours parading down the central thoroughfare in Kharkiv with woman throwing roses at them.

[albert arthur] 17/3/2022 10:22

Sergei Lavrov said some formulations for an agreement are near completion, with neutral status for Kyiv under "serious"https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-reports-15-point-peace-deal-being-seriously-discussed-as-putin-says-hes-ready-to-talk-12567460

[soleman1] 17/3/2022 08:14

I think the key point is extreme vol when the moex opens, should be an exciting day.

[albert arthur] 16/3/2022 21:43

AS have circa 1.6m left. Will probably just see under 3% TR1 RNS tomorrow (actually it's a fund so don't declare under 5% I believe, no RNS, maybe out, very soon) COLIM, if they decide to sell all, they will be worked out via ATs SETS on daily volume limits (200k). The limit lite appears to be 200k a day for COLIM if you divide over trading days and look back at the previous TR1 RNS. More aggressive with the other AS, AS held us back on the 1.1m volume we had histogram reflecting higher buying volume, with another potential sell of 200k from COLIM. 200k shares being sold as AT is not really an issue here. Entry targets are in play. Could see extreme volatility when the Russian markets open...