Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[galeforce1] 16/11/2022 22:19

The 'rift between Zelensky and the West' is all over the news this evening.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 18:59

"Ukraine's over-the-top response to a fatal missile explosion in Poland could hurt its credibility"

[brwo349] 16/11/2022 18:40

So what are you trying to argue exactly? It appears to have been a Ukrainian missile trying to intercept one of the barrage of over 100 missiles launched into Ukraine's cities. No missile would have landed in Poland if it wasn't for Russia's actions. Zelensky is right to blame Russia and NATO should respond by increasing even further the missile defences they are sending to Ukraine. That's the very least they should do.

[galeforce1] 16/11/2022 18:19

It was very good to see President Biden acting so quickly and effectively to diffuse the tensions over the missile that landed in Poland, killing 2 people.

Biden very quickly issued a statement saying that it was clear that the missile had not been fired from Russia. At that point the whole situation calmed down.

But how typical that Zelenksy tried to use the incident to try to escalate the war and to draw in Poland and NATO. Ukraine still refuses to admit that it was their missile that landed in Poland.

I even heard a BBC corespondent criticising the way Zelenksy had behaved. This has got to be a first!

[loganair] 16/11/2022 16:44

Russia and China launched traffic on the first-ever railway bridge across the Amur River at the interborder section Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) said in a press release on Wednesday.

"The launch of traffic on the bridge opens a new transport corridor between Russia and China, which removes a number of existing infrastructure restrictions. The distance for transporting goods to the northern provinces of China will be reduced by more than 700 km compared to existing routes," RDIF noted.

"Unleashing the potential of Russian-Chinese cooperation is impossible without the development of transport and logistics infrastructure. China is Russia's largest trade and economic partner, as trade between our countries is showing steady growth and has already exceeded $150 billion this year," Kirill Dmitriev, head of the RDIF said.

"The historic railway bridge across the Amur River is one of the largest cross-border projects for Russia and China and a significant infrastructure project implemented by RDIF. Its opening will increase the competitiveness of Russian and Chinese enterprises, ensure a reliable and predictable schedule for the movement of goods and cargo, affordable raw materials and energy resources, as well as increase the capacity of railway routes between the Russian Federation and China by 150 percent," he added.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 13:10

It seems to me one or two posters on this thread are not understanding, are not getting what I'm saying.

JP Morgan will want to keep their good reputation in Russia dealing with Russian companies in Russia.

If JP Morgan / JRS were to sell their Russian stocks as soon as they are able may lead to a stampede by other foreign investors to also sell out.

[dog239] 16/11/2022 12:58

Empirically they are not a large holder of Russian shares. For example they own 0.06% of Gazprom. 0.05% of Novatek.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 10:15

S6 - JRS are a major foreign holder of Russian stocks and if they were to sell as soon as they were able to could easily cause other foreigners to also sell out which in turn will lead the MOEX to big falls - therefore what I'm posting is neither crazy or ridiculous.

It is important for JP Morgan to continue to remain in the good books of the Russian authorities to be able to keep their highly profitable business with the many Russian companies in Russia.

[loganair] 16/11/2022 10:10

The MOEX Russia index was higher by 0.3% at the 2,230 level on Wednesday morning, as investors assessed the impact that fresh geopolitical tensions may have on the Russian economy. Western states are investigating the origins of a missile that hit a Polish grain facility close to the Ukrainian border, second-guessing prior beliefs that it was fired from Russia.

Steel producers were among the main laggards of the session, partially paring back gains from last week’s rally.

In the meantime, pipeline operator Transneft underperformed the oil sector as its Druzhba pipeline partially halted operations in Eastern Europe following the missile strikes on Ukraine leading to an interruption in the power grid that is pumping the oil.

[smithie6] 16/11/2022 09:50

loganair

sorry, but the content of your latest post is complete rubbish !

"JRS sells Russian stocks as soon as they are able to do so this may cause a downward run on the MOEX and therefore I do not think the Russian authorities will look kindly on JP Morgan"

JRS is a miniscule fund.
It owns a microscopic % of the part of the Russian stock mkt that creates the MOEX index.

You are crazy if you think that JRS selling its Russian holdings would "cause a downward run on the MOEX " & to be treated badly by the Russian authorities as a result.

Ridiculous post imo.

[smithie6] 16/11/2022 09:44

...let us all vote NO then

I have voted "no"

Anyone not voted yet ?

[dcr17] 16/11/2022 01:25

Many speculations are made against valid concerns about the policy change (dilution and sale at tanked prices), which I find totally unnecessary given that the policy change has nothing to offer in return for taking that risk.

No point is ever put forward about how the policy change benefits us from people who are FOR the policy change.

[dcr17] 16/11/2022 01:15

".....then raise further capital that the current JRS share holders will be offered a separate class of shares with in the new Trust which will protect the current share holders from dilution."

This is pure speculation as nothing of the sort has ever been mentioned by JPM. Quite the opposite, the latest RNS talked about how they are "aware of our pre-emption rights" which would mean that we would be given a chance to buy the new shares to prevent dilution. And if we are unable to do so, then diluted.



"If JRS sells Russian stocks as soon as they are able to do so this may cause a downward run on the MOEX and therefore I do not think the Russian authorities will look kindly on JP Morgan who are one of only..... "

Again we don't know for how long the downward run on MOEX will last. The longer it lasts, the more russian assets are sold at depressed prices. They can't continue a ME, africa, emerging europe fund on 90% russian assets for long.


Also the half-year report mentioned how they are unable to sell Sberbank (and 2 others) which are sanctioned by UK due to trading restrictions. They mentioned "trading restrictions" as the reason for not selling and not that Sberbank is down 50% and that selling at those prices would be unjustified.

[loganair] 15/11/2022 22:56

S6 - It seems to me you failed to carefully read my post as I did not say that Russia gives a damn about how JRS treats the shareholders in this fund.

If JRS sells Russian stocks as soon as they are able to do so this may cause a downward run on the MOEX and therefore I do not think the Russian authorities will look kindly on JP Morgan who are one of only two U.S. banks that the U.S have allowed to keep operating with Russian companies in Russia and therefore it seems to me reasonable to say that JRS will not be selling Russian stocks as soon as they are able to.

[smithie6] 15/11/2022 22:00

Loganair
rubbish imo

if JPM were to do the dirty on shareholders

& do a cash raise via new shares, which dilutes all PI shareholders that don't take part (phps 90% of PIs)

it will have absolutely NO effect on Russia's treatment of the Russian assets or of JPM !
Russia does not give a damn about how JPM treats the shareholders in this fund !!

a ridiculous argument imo
-----

"they'll want to keep on the good side of the Russian authorities."

[loganair] 15/11/2022 20:31

Popit - What I see happening if a change of mandate and then raise further capital that the current JRS share holders will be offered a separate class of shares with in the new Trust which will protect the current share holders from dilution.

I also do not think that JP Morgan will do the dirty on us as they are one of only two banks U.S. that the U.S. have allowed to carry on working with Russian companies in Russia itself, therefore it seems to me reasonable to say they'll want to keep on the good side of the Russian authorities.

First 9 months 2021 Russia's trading surplus was $75bln while first nine months of 2022 is $198bln.

[popit] 15/11/2022 20:19

loganair

Are you still planning to vote yes to the new mandate? And if so what benefits do you think a yes vote will give existing shareholders?

It is difficult for me to see any benefits for existing shareholders. I can only see risks of future dilution and risks of selling inexpensive Russian shares at low prices to invest in other countries.

[1917again] 15/11/2022 19:16

Reports two people in Poland were killed by Russian missiles

[brwo349] 15/11/2022 19:08

If there is a big freeze there could be a Holodomor MkII but I think the Ukrainians would rather freeze to death than give in to the Orcs.

[loganair] 15/11/2022 18:26

Today Russia has launched its biggest rocket attack against the Ukraine.

Zelensky has come on air saying another two or three of these size attacks will completely knock out the entire electricity grid of Ukraine, no lights, no water and will need to be completely rebuilt from scratch which will take over a year.

Zelensky also said that only 3% of the Ukraine now has any internet.

Moldova is now in serious problems as much of its electricity is connected to the Ukrainian electricity grid.

[loganair] 15/11/2022 17:36

dog239 - an excellent article....many Thanks.

[dog239] 15/11/2022 17:20

Get your votes in:
hxxps://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4060212/retail-investors-plan-vote-jp-morgan-russian-securities-mandate-changes?

[loganair] 15/11/2022 17:04

Oil markets are facing a slate of global risks in the months ahead that could propel crude prices to about $120 a barrel and then keep them there, according to Energy Aspects' Livia Gallarati.

Among the most near-term risks are European Union sanctions on December 5 that will ban seaborne Russian crude oil imports.

The abrupt drop-off in deliveries from Europe's biggest energy supplier will likely cause a price spike for crude, Gallarati told Insider, and prices will face renewed pressure in February when the EU's next set of sanctions on refined products like diesel kicks in.

"We see prices increasing to $120 by the end of this year," she said. "And we don't really see them decreasing significantly from this level for the next two years because we see a structural problem with supply."

While Moscow has been redirecting crude to China and India, prices can still surge as the cost of transporting crude goes up. Europe will have to cut itself off from a long-standing source that's just a few days' sailing time away, and rely on more distant suppliers like the US and Middle East, Gallarati said.

"We just don't have enough shipping capacity to move all of these barrels around," she said. "Brent is going to be structurally higher and it will feed into pump prices for the consumers. There's no doubt about that."

At the same time, subsidies and tax incentives from Western governments intended to help people pay their bills will stoke demand further and prevent supply from catching up.

"Market prices are going to go through the roof, and eventually somebody is going to have to pay the bill," Gallarati warned.

Separate from Europe's sanctions on Russia, China's reopening plans and US reactions to OPEC+ decisions can either keep oil prices muted or push them dramatically higher in 2023.

So far this year, China's zero-COVID approach has helped Europe because there's been less competition for Russian energy supplies, as well as supplies from other nations.

But if stifled demand in the world's second-largest economy all of a sudden returns in force, prices could surge and global supplies could face additional snags, which would particularly impact Europe, Gallarati said.

Meanwhile, the world's other top oil producers — OPEC+ and the US — could add more uncertainty to markets. The oil cartel has slashed its production quota, lifting crude prices, and the US has been releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bring them down.

"OPEC's been very protective of making sure there's a floor to prices," Gallarati said. "And now there's been talk about limiting exports out of the US to the rest of the world. So what happens with these policies will be another big thing to watch for prices."

[hindsight] 15/11/2022 16:45

Voted NO to the JRS changes aka back door dilution plan. Time running out to vote