Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[gbjbaanb] 10/11/2022 13:21

I noticed the downvote for all loganair's post despite our being s simple analyst report. Thanks loganair, btw.

I can only assume some NPC is so eager for continued bloodshed and russian defeat that nothing even slightly positive or factual is allowed anymore. Total brainwashing.

The rest of us would love for peace, and end to sanctions, and then our money to be returned double. Or triple. The idea a fund might trade 30% below its cash holding is even more mindblowing, shows how insane the attitudes have become.

As for kherson, if it isn't progress towards peace, then a single small nuke could render the entire place of zero strategic value.

[1917again] 10/11/2022 11:47

In the real world, rather than putin puppet land, actions speak louder than words. Reports today of new equipment heading to Ukraine, such as 6 ceasers and reports of Ukrainian pilots being trained on F15s says it all

[loganair] 10/11/2022 11:01

I am hearing more and more that Zelensky is being pushed by the U.S. to go for a cease fire with Russia with the agreement being Russia to keep all the lands it currently holds East of the Dnipro river and is why Russia is pulling out of Kherson West of the Dnipro river - a Minsk 3 as it were.

It seems to me reasonable to say in return Russia will be offered a relaxation in sanction against them.

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:30

If Detsky Mir is taken private and JRS redeems its shares at todays share price and at an exchange rate of GBP/RUB of 70 = 9.46p per share (£4.28mln)


By Easter next year, 2023 if this monies is put in to JRS 'C' account + dividends to come = circa 75p per share in JRS 'C' account which is around the current share price.

JRS also have circa 37.5p per share in cash from the sale of their 4 Kazak holdings = by Easter 2023 112.5p per share cash in the bank.

This will mean by Easter 2023, if JRS remains at the current share price, JRS will be valued at circa 35p per share less then it has cash in the bank.


As a side note JP Morgan is one of two U.S. banks that the U.S. Government has allowed to continue to offer banking services to Russian companies, in Russia.

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:24

It very much looks like Detsky Mir is being taken private and that a Tender Offer for the traded shares is going to be made.

"Shareholders of PJSC Detsky Mir, who do not participate in voting on the Reorganisation or vote “against”;, will be entitled to demand redemption of their shares at a price to be determined by the Board of Directors in an amount not lower than the volume-weighted average price of shares of Detsky Mir on the Moscow Exchange for one month preceding the date of the decision to hold the EGM."

"The Company draws the attention of non-resident investors from unfriendly jurisdictions (such as US, EU countries, Canada and other countries imposing sanctions on Russia) to the fact that the funds received during the share redemption process will be transferred to C-type accounts opened with Russian banks."


Possibility for shareholders to transfer to a non-public company - Which I hope JRS do not do so...



"The Company plans to request an authorisation from the Government Commission on Monitoring Foreign Investment in the Russian Federation (the “Government Commission”) to pay consideration in RUB for the shares sold in the Offer to non-resident investors from unfriendly jurisdictions to accounts specified by them, without the use of type “C” accounts. If the authorisation of the Government Commission is granted, the non-resident investors will be able to use the received money at their discretion."

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:12

The resumption of dividend payout became a positive event for Lukoil shares in particular, which will keep them in the mid-term. At the same time, interim dividends turned out to be beyond the market’s expectations: most forecasts were between 400 and 600 rubles per share, but the board of directors recommended paying 256 rubles per share after nine months of 2022. The management explained that the company allocated a significant amount of money to repay the debt, buy Eurobonds and finance asset purchase deals. Also, the absence of access to international capital markets could influence the decision on dividends. However, given the company’s low debt burden, we suppose that in the absence of new force majeure, Lukoil will go back to the practice of paying 100% of FCF with corrections eyed by the dividend policy in the future. In general considering earlier recommended final dividends for 2021, the total amount of payouts in late December will be 793 rubles per share, which is 16,8% of yield.

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:10

Tatneft is at the moment a neutral representative of the oil and gas sector. Among the company’s fortes, we can single out zero debt, adherence to the dividend policy and short-term resistance to sanctions. According to our estimate, the dividends in 2022 (considering those that have already been paid out for the first half) can total about 55 rubles per share, which corresponds to 14,3% of yield. At the same time, the focus on pipeline export allows Tatneft to have minimum problems with sale in 2022. However, the refusal of some European countries from buying Russian oil via Friendship can lead to a reduction in production and export next year. The stronge ruble, a greater tax burden and the discount on Russian oil will press both Tatneft and the whole sector. We assume that amid these contradictory factors, Tatneft’s shares in the next quarters will show performance close to the sector.

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:08

Given the above enumerated factors, we assume that the fall in Russian producers’ shares in the last weeks is excessive, while shares of some of them have started to look attractive for buying amid the existing high oil prices as well as dividend payouts.


Rosneft refocuses falling out amounts on India - In a longer term, we positive look at Rosneft’s shares that, we think, have good chances of adapting to the new reality. Before the February events, Rosneft supplied 54% of crude oil and 26% of oil products to Asian markets, now it is actively refocusing falling out amounts on India thanks to its share in a local oil refinery.

Also, according to the company’s head Igor Sechin, Rosneft plans to stick to its dividend policy envisaging paying 50% of net profit according to the International Financial Reporting Standards. The total dividends in 2022 can be about 40 rubles per share. However, Sechin earlier announced the payout of interim dividends of 20,4 rubles per share. Also, the company keeps the prospects of expanding production thanks to Vostock Oil project whose location allows supplying oil both to the West and East if needed.

[loganair] 10/11/2022 10:02

The MOEX Russia index rose more than 0.9% on Thursday, led by gains in financials with Sberbank up almost 5%.

Oil and gas shares were also higher, following two consecutive sessions of losses. Surgut and Rosneft added 2% and 1.4%, respectively, while Tatneft advanced 1.2%. Gazprom was up 0.9%.

On the other hand, IT companies were among the worst performers, falling by over 3%.

[brwo349] 10/11/2022 09:05

It's not a retreat, it's a GOODWILL GESTURE.

[1917again] 09/11/2022 18:26

brwo349, Kerson and Russian economy similar. We all know they will implode, just a question of time
Not sure how Russians will get any equipment across Dnieper with Excaliber and Himars raining down, but thats their problem. Suggest pack bags and go back to Russia, then concentrate on economic wealth, which they would do well at, if ignored military insanity

[brwo349] 09/11/2022 17:38

Ukraine population 43.8 million.

This for me has always been the big problem. Russia is a big country but Ukraine is a big country as well. Tackling Ukraine is not the same as fighting Chechnya with a 1.3M population or a few hundred thousand Syrian rebels. Ukraine has a very big army on home soil. Fighting for their freedom and their country. There is no way Russia can win this war not when you add in the Western backing for Ukraine. The question is can they get a draw? I really don't think they can. Goodbye Vlad your time is up son.

[brwo349] 09/11/2022 17:27

It now seems to be official. The Russians are abandoning the west bank of the Dnieper including Kherson. They say they can't defend it and the Ukrainians have 100,000 troops on that front line. They also say the Ukrainians will blow the dam which will be catastrophic for their troops.

A disaster for Putin this. The sick twisted old man claimed he had annexed it a few weeks ago. The beginning of the end surely. I don't see the Ukrainians negotiating anything. They are winning. It's also likely the Russian soldiers will mutiny. They are being used as cannon fodder on the Eastern front according to bloggers.

[smithie6] 09/11/2022 17:00

galeforce
"it strikes me that Ukraine may become more pragmatic over the next 6 months or year, as it becomes obvious that they face a long, increasingly unpopular war with very little upside."

going to be difficult for Ukraine, Zelensky & the west (& Russia ?) in coming months.

for Zelensky it will imo harder to continue to get the support of the Ukraine ppl & to motivate the Ukr ppl & the military.

If a large % of the ppl do not have electricity and/or heating thru the cold Ukr winter....their state of animation will surely reduce. (being cold day after day is miserable ....& difficult to support). Houses in the country can surely burn wood & cope. But for flats in towns/cities they surely do not have the option to burn wood & X% will surely struggle to heat their homes. (a gas boiler in a flat of course needs gas & electricity in order to function).

[gbjbaanb] 09/11/2022 16:42

It doesn't matter what the Ukrainians or Russians think of the war. The Democrats didn't get thrashed at the elections so expect more money to be sent to zelensky to bribe him to keep it going as long as possible.

[masergt] 09/11/2022 16:19

Smithies6. Yes. Emailed to Eric Sanderson late yesterday afternoon. No reply yet. If none tomorrow I may well copy to FCA. In fact might copy them anyway. Could be we're getting steamrollered here.

[galeforce1] 09/11/2022 16:10

1917 - it strikes me that Ukraine may become more pragmatic over the next 6 months or year, as it becomes obvious that they face a long, increasingly unpopular war with very little upside.

Agreeing a peace with Russia, on the other hand, has a huge economic upside.

I was talking to Ukrainian woman last week who ad recently been back to a town near Kharkiv to see her family. She said that the average Ukrainian is now mightily sick of the war.

[smithie6] 09/11/2022 13:55

masergt

have you sent your text about the vote needing >75% of yes votes to the FCA & the co. Nomad & to the stk mkt administrator ?

[smithie6] 09/11/2022 13:51

brwo

You have any suggestion for how the west can get Putin to move his troops out of Donbas region without a massive loss of face ?

( which is something that most think that Putin would refuse to tolerate/consider)

if no face saving departure is possible then imo Putin won't order his troops leave

(& Putin currently looks set to stay in power for some years more....but you never know...)

----

phps legal referendums run by the UN.....after a ceasefire & no troops present, from either side

could be a reasonable solution ??

[brwo349] 09/11/2022 13:20

Sanctions take a long time to be effective but there is no doubt the Russian economy is beginning to bleed.

[dog239] 09/11/2022 13:06

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/investor-uprising-against-vote-could-cost-them-750-returns-ii525926

[galeforce1] 09/11/2022 12:22

1917- I have been reading for 9 months that the Russian economy is JUST ABOUT TO COLLAPSE, and that it's going to happen any day now.

I think it's worth adding a large pinch of salt to these predictions about the imminent collapse of the Russian economy. The sanctions are doing Russia some harm, but they are doing Europe alot of harm too.

On the radio this morning I heard that Russia is now the main oil supplier to India. So that's clearly one market that isn't collapsing.