Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fireplace22] 15/6/2024 16:49

It's probably just as well if we have no primary steel industry left.

[tim000] 15/6/2024 16:43

You misunderstand geri, it’s the decommissioning part of the NS O&G industry that MT is highlighting for growth.

[gerihatrick] 15/6/2024 16:40

MT...how can you say that when KS is saying he will close it all down as part of his global warming strategy. This is reflected in all the recent lay-offs in the industry

[mount teide] 15/6/2024 15:50

UK North Sea O&G Sector's only growth industry post 4th July 2024.

[mount teide] 15/6/2024 10:20

Let the trend be your friend - in the last week we've had the following developments:

* New Zealand to reverse ban on oil / gas exploration

* New York indefinitely postpones congestion fee

* US raises fuel economy standards less than proposed

* Green parties heavily lose vote share in European elections

Against this backdrop: The clowns running the UK's Socialist Labour Party announce to the world they intend to light the after burners on the UK's ultra high cost transition to 'renewables'!


'Global oil demand is trending above every IEA "scenario". So much that achieving NZE 2030 numbers feels science fiction'.....Javier Blas - Bloomberg 12 June

'5-year oil forecast for 2030: ~105.4
STEPS scenario for 2030: ~104.5
APS scenario for 2030: ~97.5
NZE scenario for 2030: ~83.7

I do note there are definition and methodological differences between the numbers for the 2030 forecast and 2030 scenarios. But even so, the gap is so large (particularly with the APS and NZE) that those differences are meaningless to the broader point.'


Opec reopens rift with IEA on peak demand - Argus / 13/06/24

'Opec today reopened a rift with the IEA about the future need for oil, calling the Paris-based agency's forecast for peak demand this decade a "continuation of its anti-oil narrative."

Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais said the IEA's projection, made earlier this week, is a "dangerous narrative" that "will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale." He made his case in a commentary for consultancy Energy Aspects that Opec made publicly available.........

....Criticism of the IEA from the upstream industry has magnified since 2021, when the agency said that 2050 climate goals exclude the need for any new oil and gas fields. Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described this as "la la land" analysis. This year the IEA has come under fire from Republicans in the US Congress who have said the agency is veering into climate advocacy. US industry body API chief executive Mike Sommers said earlier this year the IEA "has become, unfortunately, so politicized that it's just not a reliable source of data any more." ''




OPECSec Gen: Peak oil demand not on the horizon

[ashkv] 15/6/2024 06:50

From Roxi on the other board re JSE AGM

Roxi Jun 2024 09:05
Strong Buy

Good morning14
It was a great day out at the AGM yesterday, arrived about 8.50am bumped into Sir Paul at the entrance who was chatting with Adel the new Chairman, had about 5-minute conversation with them both, not a lot of people in attendance, i think there was at least 2 other private shareholders sitting up at the front,

The meeting opened up with the usual voting routine the Majority of the votes having been electronically communicated,

All resolutions were passed with Majority of Support in Favour, with tiny number of votes against i think it was about 100,000, or so (Probably a disillusioned Charlie)

Anyhow, Paul and Adel told me everything was on plan for gas at Akatara in the coming days and weeks, all the operations teams were working on site with the Contractors to hand over the Plant to our guys , the technicians from SKK MIGAS would be staying on site until our guys were familiar with all the operations and had gained complete confidence in the safe and efficient running of the plant,

he explained even at these last few days it was important that all parts of the plant are fully tested and safe, it is a bit like starting up a gas/petrol refinery plant,

in the early part of the production phase AKATARA would be throwing off a lot of liquids/Condensate etc, these would be sold separately to the gas, and at Aus based dollar prices, bringing in increased revenues.

after the meeting i spoke again with Paul briefly were i discussed CWLH, Pen Mal and Montara-Stag etc, i also mentioned the low share price that the market currently valued JSE at, he mentioned they were in conversation to bring in at least another couple of Institutional investors in the coming months,

he also said that they had the backing of a couple of large banks who would have supported the equity raise required with the failed takeover of Woodsides fields, without shareholders being diluted, which was great news, he is determined to get JSE back to where it should be in its valuation, saying the CWLH was worth much more!!! on its own than the current share price , and AKATARA was worth more than CWLH , i was asked to stay and chat, but having arranged to meet my partner for lunch, i was unable to stay much longer,

I left feeling much more positive about my investment in JSE .

Just got to be patient, the re-rate will come soon, and fast, another corporate update is being planned in the future.!!!

[upwego] 14/6/2024 15:04

Strange markets right now. Got the green light from the company that everything's on track for maiden production this month and no buyers lol :)

Ive took some more today - maybe next week the buys will start flooding in. :)

Axl Also horizontal drilling yet folks selling.. Aim oil & gas sector is changing for sure..

[mount teide] 14/6/2024 11:14

Montara Field - is a very large nat gas cap overlaying a relatively thin oil reservoir.

JSE has been in contact with Shell - Ref: To discuss a nat gas supply deal (or potential outright sale of the asset) to commence towards the end of this decade/early next decade for tie in to their Crux LNG development as it comes off plateaux production.

Montara is the nearest satellite field to Crux with nat gas reserves significantly above the minimum threshold considered to be of commercial interest to Shell.

Crux LNG Project - The final investment decision for the project was made in May 2022, with first production expected in 2027.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:45

I don't agree with the assertion re high decommissioning costs. For JSE the asset retirement/decom costs are fully provisioned and updated per audit on a half yearly basis!!! And even including the decom costs JSE is severely undervalued versus peers!!!

For example with Akatara online and at 23,000 boe/d production with EV including decommissioning costs Ithaca Energy with 100% production in super high tax UK is trading at almost 2 times EV/Flowing Barrel as compared to JSE at 31p.

At 123p share price Ithaca has a EV (Including Decom)/Flowing Barrel equivalent to USD 67,000 per flowing barrel

At 31p share price JSE including Akatara online has and EV (Including Decom)/Flowing Barrel equivalent to USD 38,000 per flowing barrel

In comparison to the UK Australia is far more generous in its tax treatment of production and Indonesia/Malaysia/Thailand/Vietnam even more so. Further JSE has significant tax allowances/assets in certain of its jurisdictions!!!

Pughman is persistently negative on JSE!!! I can't recall a positive item on his account!!!

JSE is in cheap bid territory should shares prices not move higher once Akatara online (imminent!!!)

pughman13 Jun '24 - 18:07 - 21870 of 21875
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Well they are not making much of a return out of Montara and Stag, let's see how CWLH pans out. PM,Akatara and Sinphu are where JSE should be focusing. The prohibitive cost of operating and decommissioning Australian assets is reflected in the share price.

[tim000] 14/6/2024 08:20

Good point. I think most of us here like this business model and will have holdings in companies such as AET, SAVE and VLE in addition to JSE. The business model is sound and lucrative, Montara shouldn’t be held against it.

[fardels bear] 14/6/2024 08:15

Surely Montara, the largest mature asset, caused problems due to the FPSO and management decisions rather than the Montara field itself. I think we should remember that and not condemn or materially discount the opportunities offered by these mature assets if offered them going forward. They certainly don't as a rule require the capex of an Akatara as a rule.

[tim000] 13/6/2024 17:40

That’s not to say of course that the entire asset base should consist of risky mature fields, clearly we have greenfield projects too. But I imagine those kinds of assets will be most readily available and cheapest. That was my reading of the discussion anyway.

[tim000] 13/6/2024 17:35

CWLH was mentioned. PB mentioned the large contribution to decommissioning costs made by its previous owner. He thought they had made a cracking deal. Obviously if assets have major downsides such as decommissioning costs, making a firesale likely, that just gives JSE greater leverage in negotiating the price. This philosophy was discussed by Paul.

[neo26] 13/6/2024 17:14

This constant seller is keeping price down..

[pughman] 13/6/2024 17:07

Well they are not making much of a return out of Montara and Stag, let's see how CWLH pans out. PM,Akatara and Sinphu are where JSE should be focusing. The prohibitive cost of operating and decommissioning Australian assets is reflected in the share price.

[tim000] 13/6/2024 16:39

Good post! No, that wasn’t mentioned - our fault for overlooking it.

[bradvert] 13/6/2024 16:30

And they have A$ 3 billion tax losses from Montara that can only be set off against other Australian profits.. which potentially makes Oz projects more attractive to JSE than to other operators.On another note the result of JSEs Puteri cluster bid is due any day now, did PB mention that at all?

[cat33] 13/6/2024 16:20

Good summary of the announcement https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-13-2024Worth reading

[tim000] 13/6/2024 14:58

Apparently they have the financial capacity to acquire a substantial asset, as demonstrated by the prospective Woodside transaction, I assume these kind of sales are most likely in Aus.

[e43] 13/6/2024 14:27

That's interesting Tim,as their investments in Malaysia and Indonesia look the most productive at present.

[tim000] 13/6/2024 14:08

I did raise the subject of the cost of doing business in Aus, wrt unionized labour and the degree of regulation. Paul said that these costs were reflected in the price of assets being sold, and JSE of course had a lot of experience of managing these issues. This gave them a strong competitive advantage for doing deals. He also said that when acquiring assets, governments expected the company to invest in the economy by creating a local head office of senior managers. Given Jadestone already had such an office in Aus, this resulted in economies of scale should further acquisitions be made there. For all these reasons, it seemed Paul singled out Aus as the most likely geography for a future deal.

[tim000] 13/6/2024 13:47

Thanks e43. It’s really sad the damage the political class is doing to British industry (and thus its people), without having the faintest clue why - in terms of the infinitesimal impact (if any) their policies will have on the world’s climate.