Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[banksy] 12/5/2024 09:22

Is that the same global recession that's been looming for the last 4 years since Covid :)

[albert35911] 12/5/2024 08:36

Governments do what they want with with financial institutions,public can just go along with it.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 12/5/2024 08:33

Do you not see a looming global recession that will be problematic for the likes of STNG and SBLK and possibly JSE too? Or do you think that can will be kicked down the road via a return to money printing?

[albert35911] 12/5/2024 08:01

You call it what you wish I will say it is going to drop,if it doesn’t I am sure you will be happy I don’t mind it’s an observation nothing more,but it seems to get people agitated I wonder why.I will carry on saying what I want I am not to worried about exercising some on any thread whoever they are.

[puzzler2] 12/5/2024 07:15

It's not a a spike; it's a clear recovery of the share price on the back of improving fundamentals and pending news. There may be some resistance at around 40p and again at 50p, but there's a clear path to 70p based on the chart. Feel free to disagree, albert, but my money says I'm right and you're wrong.

[albert35911] 12/5/2024 06:22

Jungmana….it is an observation as I wrote I stand by it all spikes go down,as have one of the shares you are now pumping,sorry being over exhuberant.

[kaos3] 12/5/2024 05:55

Above lt chart is a beauty.

2 bottom done and consolidation done.

Just before breakout.

Which vibes with real situation

[mount teide] 11/5/2024 23:35

Jung - thanks for the heads up.

[jungmana] 11/5/2024 19:54

MT just be warned, you won't get any research or factual points from Albert. He is a well known troll across many shares on AIM.Only here to disrupt the thread.

[albert35911] 11/5/2024 18:10

My view is a spike is there to be seen, as in all spikes they tend to drop,though some people can shall we put it get over exuberant,no research whatsoever just an observation.We will see shan’t we.

[mount teide] 11/5/2024 17:57

Albert - as i've previously stressed, all views, pro and anti, are not only very welcome but encouraged on my threads, provided they are factual, and help to improve our collective knowledge of the investment case.

With respect, it would be helpful if those with a bear view on the stocks they comment on that I hold, if they actually supported their case with some well argued and detailed analysis, rafter than the usual:

* "This is a pump and dump spike"
* "The turnaround is already priced in"
* "The management cant be trusted"
* "S/P fall suggests another placing is imminent"
* There are far better investments out there"
etc, etc

I do occasionally comment on companies that I have an extremely bear view of, like the huge fraud that is MPL and, ARS, which is a lifestyle company for the management, but make sure the posts are a well researched factual analysis of why I hold that view.

[albert35911] 11/5/2024 17:21

It would appear the good news bringers are trying very very hard to, put points across,I can think of other names,but we will see.this small spike will be curtailed.I’m,ready for the flak.

[farrugia] 11/5/2024 16:10

Mount Teide11 I always like to read your pespectives.

'As, time and tide waits for no man, and there are currently some excellent alternative, 'value' investment opportunities in both the O&G and Global Shipping sectors.'

May I ask which value investments you are eyeing in this sector? I'm interested in all names including USA/Canadian..etc

[mount teide] 11/5/2024 12:34

With the company increasingly now back on the front foot, looking forward to more M&A news. Something the management have a long history of being very good at - namely acquiring attractively priced second phase O&G assets with reinvestment and efficiency improvement potential.

In this respect, it's worth refreshing the memory of some of the pre Montara Venture issue M&A deals the company secured.

The highlight surely, when considering how well it's since performed, being Petronas' Malaysian assets for a headline price of $9m. By the time the deal completed, from the effective date, the financial benefit Jadestone received under the terms of the deal was such that, instead of Petronas at the closing ceremony getting a cheque for $9m for the asset, they had to hand over assets producing 6,500 boepd to Jadestone along with a cheque for $9.2m!

A repost from over two years ago, prior to the poorly handled Montara Venture operational issues which effectively knocked the business backwards for the next two years:

'Many late life, large O&G fields can often can have commercial potential in the hands of a second phase specialist like Jadestone's team, way beyond the seller's projections, since they're no longer material to them. By way of example, when Blakeley's Talisman Energy bought the ageing Beatrice oil field, seller BP considered the field has 18 months commercial life left. Through efficiency gains and mostly infill well drilling, Talisman were still operating the field some 20 years later, and eventually sold it on to Ithaca Energy, who themselves squeezed another 5 years commercial life out of it.

Jadestone/Mitra Acquisitions:

2021 - Petronas / Malaysia Assets
2020 - Lemang Asset
2019 - Maari Asset
2018 - Montara Asset
2017 - Ogan Komering Asset
2016 - Stag Asset

A combined 50.8 mm bbls of P2 reserves (as of Dec 2020) acquired for a net $15.8m (assuming Maari completes in 2022, and Jadestone receives a net circa $75m for the financial benefit from the effective economic date), currently generating production of circa 19,000 boepd at an average operating cash flow of circa $80/bbl .........Stag and Montara has generated circa $650m of operating cash flow since acquisition, before circa $130m of Capex.

'CEO Paul Blakeley is clear about his mission — spearheading Jadestone to become the same regional success story he achieved with Talisman Energy in the Asia-Pacific region, and earlier in the North Sea with Talisman too.

He notes that many players, including industry heavyweights, are now rationalising their portfolios, while some independents have retreated from South-East Asian E&P for reasons such as wanting to focus on unconventionals and renewables, in some cases, even pressure from activist investors.“That leaves the field wide open,” Blakeley says.“What we really want to do — and it’s not rocket science, or clever or new — is to fill that space that I think is increasingly left open for a mid-size capability"

A company with the ability to operate large fields developed by the majors but bringing additional skills in mature field asset management — entrepreneurial, lean on process, low-cost and efficient — and excited by the small add-on things that create a lot of incremental value, Blakeley says.“The opportunity to pursue these sorts of things is what brought the team at Jadestone together.

“It’s no surprise that much of our technical and management team has come from Talisman. We’re all committed to replicating the sort of success we built in the region over the past 10 years,” he says.

Blakeley left Arco in December 1994 to join Talisman Energy as a senior vice president, accountable for the company’s North Sea business. Under his leadership, Talisman — via asset enhancement as well as mergers and acquisitions — became the UK North Sea’s second-largest operator, with production of 160,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, generating more than US$1 billion in annual free cash flow. About 12 years ago, Blakeley then came to Asia to run Talisman’s regional business and created the same value growth story. ' O&G Journal

[mount teide] 11/5/2024 10:11

s100 - Trin - I too was surprised at the TRIN news. It would have made much more sense when the TXP share-price was in three figures!

However, as a former TRIN shareholder under the previous self serving, lifestyle company management, I know the assets quite well. So, once the dust settles and smoke clears on the TRIN announcement, as more detailed information emerges on the future plans for the combined company and, how the management intends to scale up its operations and deliver the claimed efficiency and synergy potential of the acquisition, if I'm not comfortable with what I see, will review my investment accordingly. As, time and tide waits for no man, and there are currently some excellent alternative, 'value' investment opportunities in both the O&G and Global Shipping sectors.

AIMHO/DYOR

[spawny100] 11/5/2024 08:22

Well done MT nice to hear that you made some money on TXP but a painful paper loss on the rest. I don't like the TRIN news at all and see it as a big red flag personally.

[nigelpm] 11/5/2024 06:26

You've answered your own misunderstanding of why share price has risen. No more capex on Akatara and another load of production goes straight to the bottom line.. it's taken the market time to adjust.

[1ajm] 10/5/2024 23:52

I think long term multi-year predictions on aim oilers are a waste of time. Can only decide at the point of RNS releases.

Another similar week next week then might be cooking, although given the 2024 outlook it seems to be a balloon hype IMO. We will see. I wouldn't have guessed 35p today after the RNS so it's already above my expectation.

I guess people were expecting the Akatara contractors to fail more on their plans than I was. COO appointed yet?

Not having to fund building Akatara will be the best bit.

[mount teide] 10/5/2024 23:45

Hi spawny - posted around two years ago that I sold half my 2.4m TXP holding at an average price of circa 85p, realising a circa £750k capital gain as it was bought at an average of 8.5p immediately following the IPO, when as posted at the time, there was so little interest in the stock, I was able to repeatedly buy up to 250,000 shares in one transaction without moving the s/p. Reduced the holding after the management spent two years making painfully slow progress 'monetising' the assets after the share price peaked at circa 175p.

Painfully rode the share price down to 85p before selling half as I expected, wrongfully, that CEO Paul Baay, who had a long track record of success in Canada growing and selling O&G companies for considerable shareholder capital gain, would repeat the feat at Touchstone once production from the Ortoire block commenced flowing in volume. Got that badly wrong, and correctly paid for it the hard way - by losing circa £2.16m of paper profit riding the share price down.

Still hold the other 1.2m shares, in the belief, that the fundamentals and a modest execution of the production growth plan over the next year, probably holds the potential for the share price to at least double.

I'm fortunate that my equity investment portfolio is cash I can afford to lose, not least since after 24 years of investing the overwhelming majority is now profit.

As my wife and I do not need the investment portfolio cash to maintain our lifestyle, it allows us to do something we both enjoy since taking early retirement - equity investment with a considerably higher level of investment risk than if we needed the money or were managing it for other people.

[mount teide] 10/5/2024 20:09

a35911 - suspect you're likely to be proved right based on the technicals but, with respect to the fundamentals, a 35p share-price is likely to prove little more than background noise if your investment outlook is 2-3 years.

With a surveyor from DNV, one of the world's leading Classification Societies now overseeing JSE's compliance with the regulatory responsibilities of safely operating an FPSO where in-water survey's are carried out in lieu of dry dockings; sufficient sound cargo tank capacity available on the FPSO to effect continuous field production operations, even in the event of a similar structural integrity issue being found in one of the forward cargo tanks yet to undergo inspection; and with Akatara due to commence production in Q2/2024; its not surprising that the investment risk reward is now back on a strongly improving trend, and being picked up by the wider market.

AIMHO/DYOR