Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 28/12/2023 10:50

Hope all had a joyous Christmas and 2024 is shaping up (god wiling to be a year that JSE goes back above 100p!!!)

Akatara completion update
Infill Drilling Update
Further Acquisitions
Montara remediation update

Just a few items to look forward to into 2024 and the biggie - First gas from Akatara in Q2 2024... Current production is imho discounted 60-70% from market value... and hopefully Aktara progress boosts SP!!!

[ashkv] 28/12/2023 09:36

20,000 boe/d of crude sold a premium to Brent which is produced in OECD low tax jurisdictions with an Enterprise Value (EV = Market Cap + Debt - Cash) of USD 248 million.

Per management value of firm if they were to sell would be at present prior to Akatara restart in the 90-100p range...

BBG Analyst average 12m target price is 75p with a high target of 90p!!!

As of last update -> Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000

JSE Share Price: 37.00p
Brent: $79.20
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 76.19%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -60.30%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2800
4 Dec 23 RNS Revised Upward Range Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production Mid-Guidance (14,500 - 15,000 boe/d from APR 23 to DEC 23 ): 14,750
Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23: 13,500
Current Production -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 30 June 23: $111,000,000
Cash (USD) 30 June 2023: $118,782,000
Net Cash (USD) 30 June 2023 : $7,782,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £200,056,416
Market Cap (USD): $256,072,213
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $248,290,213
EV/Barrel(USD) Revised Upward per 4 Dec 23 RNS Mid-Guidance for Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production: $16,833
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $18,392
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): $12,415
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $21,615
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Forecast Production Mid Guidance (24,000 Boe/d): $10,345
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) Top Guidance + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $41,147
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.83
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 103.38%

[1ajm] 22/12/2023 20:07

found this on the half year results 2023, with a $59m 6 month loss;


'We therefore acted decisively to maintain a robust balance sheet by finalising the RBL in May and by raising an additional gross $53 million of new equity in June. As a result of these actions, we ended the first half in a strong liquidity position.'


Were they worried the RBL wouldn't be enough. Glad that's over with anyway.

Most of that $59m was spent in akatara development right? They were still producing 8-10k bopd.

[king suarez] 22/12/2023 18:26

The equity raise was a condition of the RBL? (to not breach convenants)

[1ajm] 22/12/2023 14:11

Q2/Q3.....equity fundraise $52m. (+$35m Tyrus capital backed funds which I'm assuming they didn't need in the end?)

Q4.....1.7mmboe sales $140m+ revenue, (Since the beginning of Q4 2023, the Company has lifted approximately 1.4 mmboe generating significant revenues. A further 370,000 boe are expected to be lifted in December, with proceeds expected to be received before year-end.)

How do you guys look at this?

With the $200m (limited to a lower value based on akatara progress?) RBL completed a couple of weeks earlier. (end of may and equity fundraise june/july)

Obviously Q4 has been a big win, which they didn't know at the time but why did they need the equity fundraise?

[donald pond] 22/12/2023 10:06

ENQ offers incredible value still imo

[nigelpm] 22/12/2023 09:57

Whilst there's no direct read through to JSE.

Consolidation in the sector will buoy everything. I'd not be surprised to see HBR as a larger entity swallow up the likes of SQZ and ENQ.

[yasx] 22/12/2023 08:51

Cracking deal at HBR (a stock I hold) - remains cheap.

[s34icknote] 22/12/2023 08:29

Hoping this is a new year tip ?

[1ajm] 21/12/2023 17:59

38-40p year end?

[sea7] 21/12/2023 15:52

yep - that is some deal

[nigelpm] 21/12/2023 15:36

That hbr deal is an astonishing one. Never seen anything like it.

[s34icknote] 21/12/2023 15:33

Hbr deal may ignite the sector ?

[winnet] 21/12/2023 10:05

looks like decent progress!

[sea7] 21/12/2023 08:58

good footage - getting ever closer to completion

[sleveen] 21/12/2023 08:28

Impressive transformation.

[nigelpm] 21/12/2023 08:25

Latest Akatara Video - looking very nice -

[nigelpm] 21/12/2023 07:21

That's the kind of RNS designed to stop the likes of BG dumping.

[retsius] 20/12/2023 16:14

Brent at $80pb surely should give the share price a lift :very disappointing.
R.

[pughman] 20/12/2023 10:36

Blakeley was here in London recently meeting institutions. The numbers speak for themselves, since Montara reopened in Sep, the company has produced 2m boe and sold 2.5m boe, with the CWLH lifting, yielding revenue of over $200m. Those talks appear to have been fruitless, with funds continuing to sell. If Jan-June 24 goes as expected and BG is sorted then a recovery in the share price should happen, but I've learned to take nothing for granted here.

[yasx] 20/12/2023 09:36

Surely the Co./Co Broker can entice interest from one or more parties to take on the overhang since things are shaping up nicely and if they managed to get many to buy in the placing at much higher levels it is not overly difficult to absorb the BG stake. I know things are different since the placing, but the issues that plagued the Co post placing have largely been resolved and Ak. is much further advanced than it was at that stage which offsets much of the impact from the aforementioned issue.

[thedudie] 20/12/2023 09:12

Hopefully someone that wants a stake (at these depressed prices) will buy in bigger chunks - and be supplied by BG ultimately exhausting their supply. This depressed state won't last till 2025 if JSE perform to plan.

[thedudie] 20/12/2023 09:04

Also time is a healer I find :)

[nigelpm] 20/12/2023 09:01

FTSE is up 100 pts and inflation tanked - macros moves.